Game: Geelong Cats Vs. Melbourne Demons (Saturday, July 13th at 2.10pm - Kardinia Park)
Market: AFL Fantasy Dream Team: Joel Selwood ($1.80) Vs. James Kelly ($1.95) - Sportsbet
There is no doubt that the Geelong Cats should easily take care of the Melbourne Demons during round 16 of the 2013 AFL Season. With a line of somewhere over ten goals in place it’s hard to find some value in betting on this match. As such we have taken a look at the AFL Fantasy Dream Team markets and have found what we believe to be a high-value bet.
Joel Selwood vs. James Kelly shouldn’t be offered as a market this week.
But it is and we are going to capitalize.
If you look over the long term in 2013 then these two players have had somewhat similar years in AFL Fantasy Dream Team (DT) scoring. James Kelly has averaged 95.89 DT points this year, while Joel Selwood has averaged 96.36. That’s hardly a big difference, but in this instance you must take into account that Selwood’s average is skewed because of games where he scored very low when he received a hard tag i.e when he scored 38 DT points against Fremantle two weeks ago.
Outside of the games where Selwood was heavily tagged he has been prolific, scoring 128, 121 and 132 in three of the last four games. Kelly on the other hand has scores just 104, 100 and 63 in his last three games. IN addition, Selwood has scored at least 100 points in seven games this year, while Kelly has managed it just four times. That’s not to mention the fact that Selwood’s potential scoring ceiling is much higher than Kelly’s as Selwood has managed to score over 120 DT points five times, while Kelly has scored over 120 just once.
More importantly, let me ask you this… Who at Melbourne is going to stop Joel Selwood? It’s one thing for some of the best taggers like Fremantle’s Ryan Crowley to limit Selwood’s impact, but it’s a whole different story to think that someone at Melbourne could manage to do that. Selwood is In great form and should find enough to cover a solid James Kelly in AFL Fantasy Dream Team scoring.
Verdict: When Joel Selwood is in form he can’t be stopped and right now Selwood is in form. No one at Melbourne will stop him this week and Selwood should find enough of the ball to defeat James Kelly in the AFL Fantasy Dream Team head-to-head betting market at SportsBet.
Take note: The above tip is simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
