The 2023 AFL Finals are here! There are four matches on the cards for the first weekend of finals, with action beginning on Thursday night with Collingwood taking on Melbourne in a blockbuster at the MCG. We preview the match and provide our best bets below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for all 2023 AFL Finals matches, so make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content!
2023 AFL First Qualifying Final Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Melbourne
Thursday 7:20pm AEST, September 7th, MCG
Although displaying somewhat shaky form at the end of the home and away season, Collingwood did enough to secure the minor premiership and earn a home qualifying final. The Magpies lost three of their final five regular season matches including two of their last four at the MCG, although a dominant 70-point win against the Bombers in Round 24 would’ve lifted their spirits heading into the week off.
Speaking of the week off, it was arguably more beneficial to the Magpies compared to all seven other finals clubs. They suffered a number of injuries to key players in the final couples of rounds, but importantly the break has helped Captain Darcy Moore recover in time to feature on Thursday night, although Brownlow fancy Nick Daicos is still likely to be 1-2 weeks away.
Also with some injury troubles, Melbourne will have some decisions to make at the selection table on Wednesday night. Forward Jake Melksham was arguably in career-best form before unfortunately injuring his ACL in the final match of the regular season. He joins swingman Harrison Petty on the sidelines for the rest of the year. Tom McDonald is set to return and play an important role for the Demons.
Regardless of who lines up for the Demons on Thursday night, the club will be full of confidence on the back of their strong finish to the season. They won seven of their last eight matches and their only loss was by four points against the Blues in Round 22.
Match prediction: Melbourne were able to hold on late in the piece to win by four points (66-62) in the only matchup between these teams this year, which was on King’s Birthday on June 12. They were the underdogs that day and were without Clayton Oliver, adding further merit to the win.
Close matches between these teams are something we’ve become accustomed to over the past three years, as each of their past four meetings have included multiple lead changes. In fact, in each of their last three meetings the team trailing at half time has come back to win.
With that statistic in mind, taking ‘Any Other Result’ in the ‘Wire-to-Wire’ market looks to be a favourable way to bet on a difficult match.
Wire-to-Wire: Any Other Result
$1.97 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare banner below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals – Has a few games plus extra rest under his belt since coming back from injury, so I expect him to be ready to fire here.
Scott Pendlebury 20+ Disposals – Pendles has been super consistent again this season and will be needed in the midfield with Nick Daicos sidelined with injury.
Bailey Fritsch 2+ Goals – Is their key option in the forward line and will need to step up even more with Jake Melksham out of the lineup.
Dan McStay 1+ Goal – Has kicked at least one goal in seven straight matches and multiple goals in six of those seven.
SGM Odds: $3 at BoomBet
