Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, July 29th

Back to Caulfield this weekend with a nine-race card and a very exciting one at that, with several of the 'good horses' making their return to the track ahead of the Spring. The track is currently a Good 4 and I expect it to stay that way - there is a drop of rain predicted but not much more than that.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

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Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, 29th of July

Race 1

Competitive race for the fillies and mares to start. I am a bit surprised she is the clear favourite but I couldn't get past SULLIVAN BAY here. She was run down by FORGERESS last start, but gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights here which I think means she can turn the tables. There's also some chinks in the armour in some of her main rivals here, in my opinion. Forgeress was able to sit outside Sullivan Bay last start but I think she could be a pair further back in the run today if Divine Chills comes across from the wide gate, but once again Sullivan Bay is the clear leader in the race and that will make her tough to run down over the track and distance she goes well at. The only concern I have is the very strong Northerly winds predicted, which may affect front runners, but it's hard to predict at this stage without seeing them actually race. Based on her win last start, Forgeress should have every possible chance to win again here. Draws ideally in barrier 5 and if she's good enough she should be able to overcome the weight swing. ROCKET COMMANDER is on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig stable but she generally always needs her first up run (zero wins from five starts). Look for her third up over 1400m in a few weeks. EVERY FAITH is very inconsistent and has a poor record at the track with just one placing from six starts. DIVINE CHILLS gets Williams on board and comes off some good midweek form. This is a big step up in grade though, from midweek BM70 to Open class Saturday grade. Down in the weights and a good record at the track, she can win but I prefer Sullivan Bay. One at value to include is MISS COUTNERFEIT.

TIP: Sullivan Bay

Race 2

All over KIWIA here after the debacle of a race two weeks ago when he was a certainty beat over 2000m. I declared him that day (along with most of Australia) and he was absolutely butchered by Stockdale, but there really isn't many better jockey changes than this: apprentice Stockdale off, Damian Lane on. Drops to 56kg, draws barrier 6, goes up to 2400m which isn't really any concern for me, and he's won at the track before. Should sit first four and will be extremely hard to beat. Has already been $2.50 into $2.00. CHARLEVOIX is the main danger at the top of the weights with Williams on board. He won two starts ago over 2500m at Flemington with the blinkers on first time, but could only manage 3rd over 2600m last start when favourite. He is an out and out stayer, and the big concern here is his record at the track - four starts for zero placings. STREET SPUN can run a good race at the bottom of the weights.

TIP: Kiwia (Best Bet)

Race 3

This is a very, very competitive race. NISTAAN has been backed into $2.70 already and for me that is way too short. He finished 3rd behind Lone Eagle first up from a spell which looks to be a pretty strong form line, but the sheer depth of this race means that he is too short for me to back here. I think from barrier 1 there's a chance he could be 6th on the rail, which is a tricky spot to win from at Caulfield. He can win, but I'll be looking elsewhere at the odds. There's three that I'll be playing on here. The first is SHAMPORT for Weir and Williams. On debut he ran 3rd at Echuca over 1100m and looked to be a horse that needed this sort of distance. We've seen plenty of times Weir debut one in the country and then bring them straight to the city with great success (Palentino the best example). Draws well to sit midfield, Williams is a strong lead and I think he'll go close at the $8 mark. The second I'll be backing is FULLY MAXED. He was hammered late in betting when resuming at Sandown over 1000m, backed from about $61 into $14, and his win was tremendous. Genuinely looked like he could go on to some serious races, and I think the horses he beat in that race aren't bad either. The query is 1000m straight up to 1400m and the fact he will give them a head start from barrier 9, but at $13 I can't let him go around without something on. The blowout is OLYMPIC LAD and at $28/$7.50 I'll be having something small on each way. He is crying out for 1400m and is a winning chance.

TIP: Shamport / Fully Maxed EW

Race 4

Another wide open race here. There's about three or four I'm interested in. OBERLAND makes his stable debut for Darren Weir after racing in Queensland. He's won 6 races from 15 starts and has won three from five when first up from a spell. Has a good record at the distance and with 59kg after the claim for Allen I think he'll be very competitive here. From barrier 2 he'll sit midfield and I expect a decent tempo in this so look for him late. I'd be pretty keen on WIND FORCE if he had have drawn a good barrier but he's drawn the carpark. Even so, he may be able to slide across the field from out wide and if he manages to get across without doing too much work I think he'll be there for a long way. He was only run down late by Leodoro last start (which is a strong form line) and back in 3rd was Portman who then came out and bolted in last week. At $9 I'll be backing him. The one I'm pretty keen on at better odds is SAINT VALOREM arund the $12 mark. H ran well first up behind Gun Case and the key today is coming into this second up. He is undefeated from two starts when second up, and with the tempo on up front, that should set it up for him charging home from the back. That's exactly how he won second up last prep. WRITTEN ERA is the last horse of interest. She raced through her grades last prep, going from a maiden win all the way through to Group 3 company. In both starts in Group 3 company, she was luckless. She was only beaten 1.6L by Group 1 winner Silent Sedition in one of those races, and that form is good enough to win a race like this. Lane is a strong booking, my only concern is the 1100m. You can have something on all four at the odds - I'll be playing on Wind Force and Saint Valorem, with a saver on Oberland and Written Era.

TIP: Wind Force / Saint Valorem EW

Race 5

A horse I really, really like here in SPANISH REEF. Those who follow on Twitter will know I pretty well declared it last start and it won for us at $7.50, and I tweeted during the week that it opened at $5.50 for this race, but it's already into $4. Two starts ago this horse beat Lovani who has since come out and won twice, and last start it beat Ruby Sea. I was probably more keen last start than I am today for a couple of reasons: firstly, it mapped to get the gun run last start and Newitt rode it exactly like I thought. The two negatives today are Brandon Stockdale (3kg apprentice) takes over from Newitt and the horse draws barrier 10. With 16 runners lining up, I'm hoping the horse can just get cover, wherever in the run that is. I declared one that Stockdale was riding two weeks ago from a gun barrier and he butchered that, so my concern isn't unwarranted. I think he's easily the best and most progressive horse in the race, 53.5kg makes him very well weighted, and up to 2000m looks to be within his reach. Keen on him, just praying for a good ride. A few others worth mentioning. WINDBERN looks a strange price at $8.50 to me, which I think is over the odds. Won last start (albeit controversially), has been consistent all prep, gets Williams on board today and draws perfectly. PRESCOTT is a huge price at $34. Didn't see an ounce of daylight behind Windbern last start and should be ready to do something third up from a spell. SHADOW PRINCE one to include. Happy to play on Spanish Reef and Windbern here.

TIP: Spanish Reef / Windbern EW

Race 6

Very, very keen on O'RACHAEL here. We were on her last start at double figure odds when she was luckless behind Moonlites Choice. She really should have gone close to winning the race but she was badly held up until about the 150m mark when it was all over. Goes up 2kg here but Oliver takes the ride and she draws much better in barrier 2 so I'd expect she could even land in the first six in running. IF NOT NOW WHEN finished half-a-length ahead of O'Rachael in that race last start, but had absolutely every chance and draws poorly here, so I'm happy to take it on. The value could be Craig Williams' ride NIL DESPERATUM who we had as our best bet when winning at Mildura. Of course this is a huge step up in grade but could measure up at $12. ABRIOLA can bounce back.

TIP: O'Rachael / Nil Desperatum EW

Race 7

REVOLVING DOOR is pretty short here at $2.50 but I just can't find anything to beat him. He's been in terrific form since resuming from a spell with a win and two seconds. I think the horse that ran him down two starts ago, My Paisann, is pretty decent, and last start he was unfortunately butchered by the jockey. He was three and four wide the trip and did extremely well to finish as close as he did. Senior jockey goes back on today - the same jockey that won on him first up - and he draws perfectly in barrier 2 so he will either lead or box seat. Very hard to beat here but wouldn't want him much shorter. WAYANKA gets Williams on board today and he didn't have much luck last start either. Concern is his record at the distance with three starts and no placings, but he is putting the writing on the wall that he's ready to win. NIKITAS is disadvantaged by the barrier today. he had the gun run behind the leaders last start when winning but will either go back or be caught wide from barrier 13. HAY BALE steps up from 1100 to 1400m but is in great form.

TIP: Revolving Door

Race 8

Great race but I just keep coming back to one horse and that is ABILITY. He's three from three since resuming as a gelding and admittedly they've been in significantly easier races than this but he's been absolutely dominant in all of them. His win over the 1100m two starts ago was 0.03 seconds slower than SUPIDO's win first up. Williams rides, he should be able to sit in midfield or further forward and I think he can at least run a place here so $8.50/$2.90 looks a really good price. SUPIDO was dominant first up, as he should have been in that race. He's a genuine Group 1 horse and from barrier 5 I anticipate he'll get a fairly similar run to what he did first up. I think he deserves to be favourite and the price is about right, but I'd rather play on a couple of others today. He had every right to win dominantly first up but this is a stiffer test. I expect LANKAN RUPEE will need the run first up for 266 days from an injury. The same can be said for KEEN ARRAY. DUKE OF BRUNSWICK can run well, while SAVANNAH AMOUR is a bit of a dark horse in this. The horse I'm really keen to see, and I think he represents the value here, is CHOCOLATE HOLIC. He was meant to run against Supido first up but was scratched from the race. He makes his Melbourne debut for Weir here after winning 7 of his 11 races in WA. His best will be over 1400m but I do think he comes into this a bit under the radar. At $13 I'll have something on.

TIP: Ability EW / Chocolate Holic EW

Race 9

Really, really keen on one here at good odds and that is BLACK SHEEP. He comes up around $15/$4.30 here which I am more than happy to take. First up he was beaten 1.7L which is a pretty good run when you consider he has only ever placed once from six starts first up from a spell. However, his second up record is four starts for a win and two seconds. So he improves sharply second up. He's never raced over 1700m before but he has won four races over 1600m so the distance is no issue for me. Draws to get an absolute dream run from barrier 3, and recently when Brad Rawiller is only booked for one or two rides for Weir, they generally go close. I think it's notable that this is Rawiller's only ride for the entire day at Caulfield, so I'm really keen on him each way here. PORTION CONTROL and GALAXY RAIDER will go close, in particular Portion Control at $6.50 is a good each way bet. RADICAL the blowout - he could be ready to do something third up from a spell at over 30/1. Backing both Portion Control and Black Sheep, very keen on the latter.

Tip: Portion Control EW / Black Sheep EW (Best Value)

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