Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, July 27th.
We have nine races on a Soft 5 track but there isn’t much rain predicted so it’s likely we will end up on a Good 4. The rail is in the True position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Tune into Episode 44 of the Before You Bet Podcast below to get all of Tim's thoughts on both Rosehill and Caulfield!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #1 Mount Kilcoy
Best Value: Race 2 #3 Josephine Sea
RACE 1
Looks a two-horse race to open proceedings here and tactics will be key. (1) Social Spin comes off a 1400m win at Sandown Lakeside where he led all the way and sprinted home the last 400m to salte by 1.75L. There looks to be no speed in the race here so expect him to go to the front from barrier 2 and if he gets it as comfortably as he did last start, he’ll be hard to run down. (3) Ruban Bleu has had two starts, both in Saturday metro grade. He finished off powerfully behind the talented Tony Nicconi last start over 1200m and looks to be crying out for 1400m. He settled last on that occasion but he won’t be wanting to do that from barrier 1 here. They will try and be more positive from that gate and not let Social Spin get too far ahead. He’s had four weeks between runs which isn’t ideal given he’s stepping up in trip but Hayes said they’ve kept the work up to him and he’s ready for the rise in trip. I think he’s the better horse, it’s just whether the race plays out to suit him.
RACE 2
Hugely open race! (8) See Me Exceed returns here and she’s a talented filly that only finished 2.5L off the likes of Booker last preparation. First up last prep she was desperately unlucky and should have won, so fresh up today she should give a big sight. (3) Josephine Sea looks big odds at $16 after not getting a crack at them last start when she started a $5 chance. She’s been very good in her three starts back from a seven-week break and although barrier 16 isn’t ideal, at least she will get a chance to run them down. (4) Raspberry Rose is an $18 chance and is capable of winning here first up. She’s won three from five starts and draws barrier 1. They have the option to use that barrier and lead so don’t be surprised to see her well. (7) Miss Pandanus is two from two after wins at Geelong and Sale. The form from that win at Sale was backed up with Nantaali coming out and winning last week. Drawn nicely in barrier 9 for Ethan Brown. (9) Tardis is also first up and her form from last prep should see her competitive here. She ran 2nd to Street Sheikh on debut, beat Glayva and also finished just 2.7L off Demerara at the end of the campaign. (11) Soul Star has been butchered in both starts this preparation. With any luck she may have won both of them. Drawn horribly in barrier 19 but I wouldn’t rule her out. Tough race to bet in.
Value: (3) Josephine Sea $16 Sportsbet
RACE 3
A few chances here and track pattern could be key. If they’re able to make ground in the early races, (3) Mantastic looks the likely winner, but with barrier 13 he’s going to be a long way back in the field. Another Coldie ran 3rd behind him and Guizot last start and then came out and won comfortably on Wednesday, so the form out of his last race is holding up. Just needs things to go his way. (10) Paremuus Boy broke through for a good win in midweek grade last start, which backed up a couple of good efforts prior to that. Draws nicely in barrier 4 but goes from Damian Lane to Damien Thornton. (6) Kaching can run an honest race from the good draw and (7) Portion Control is ready third up from a spell.
RACE 4
Very keen on three runners here but the standout is (2) Just Hifalutin. She resumed with a terrific effort behind Camdus down the straight at Flemington and she comes here with two wins from two starts when second up. She’s had six starts at the distance and has never finished outside the top two. (5) Modern Wonder had her first start for Darren Weir last time out and was sound. Should be better off for that run and draws much better in barrier 3 here. She looks the value in the race at $6.50. (3) Princess Of Queens is first up today and has placed in all five runs at the track so should be around the mark.
Value: (5) Modern Wonder $6.50 Crownbet
RACE 5
Looks another nice race for the smart (1) Mount Kilcoy who blitzed his rivals when stepping up to 2000m for the first time at this track last start. Goes up in weight from 54kg to 58.5kg but gets Ethan Brown aboard and should enjoy a very similar run to the one Ben Allen gave him last start. Up in distance to 2400m again but Weir will have him fit enough and the way he won last start, it’s hard to tip against him. (3) Borella finished off nicely behind Mount Kilcoy last start and looks as if he will appreciate the step up in trip. Weir has two other runners in the race - (9) Zedinator and (10) Big Bad Baz – who ran the quinella in a 2200m race last start with just a nose separating them.finished alongside each other in a race over 2200m last start. (11) Pure Colour bolted in by 7L two starts ago before being beaten 4L as the favourite in a midweek race at Sandown last start. Steps up sharply from 1600m to 2400m here and carries just 51kg. Could be one to throw in at big odds, as is (14) Own Street Way who has had two 2400m runs in preparation for this (big plus) and gets blinkers applied for the first time. He’s a $46 chance.
RACE 6
Keen on (1) Self Sense who is just racing in terrific form on both the flat and over the jumps. He’s run in the top two at his past six starts and doesn’t seem to have any problems dropping back in distance. He dropped from 3400m to 2040m at Moonee Valley two starts ago and ran enormous and does a similar thing today after winning over jumps last start. The 2400m suits him much better than the 2040m did at the Valley and he gets blinkers reapplied. (2) Bondeiger is third up and up in distance. Weir turned this horse around last prep and he worked home well behind Sixties Groove last start and that’s good form. (5) Tuff Bickie is also third up and worked home well behind Thunder Cloud last start.
RACE 7
Looks a two-horse race here in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes. (2) Vega Magic is essentially on trial for The Everest and would want to be winning this if he were to be considered a serious chance for that. He was very disappointing last preparation in the Goodwood but he was coming off an injury-enforced layoff and had a horrible run in the race. If he bounces back to his best, he should be winning this, but he is well and truly short enough in the market with those queries. (3) Voodoo Lad was a different horse upon his return to Melbourne last start and won the Sir John Monash Stakes easily. He’s had five starts at the track for four wins and a 2nd placing. If we look at their SP profiles, Voodoo lad started a $16 chance in the Goodwood, while Vega Magic was the $4 favourite. I think Vega Magic is the better horse but if there is a chink in his armour, Voodoo Lad is good enough to beat this field just as he did last start.
RACE 8
Big field and an open race but I’m only really interested in the two runners at the top of the weights – (1) Snitzepeg and (2) Street Sheikh. Snitzepeg was ready to win last start but drew barrier 1 and unfortunately never got a crack at them. The form guide says he was beaten 11.7L and finished second last, but he went around in a track gallop and ran up backsides for 400m. Drawn wide today so is likely to find himself in the back half of the field but he’s ready to win and should be working home strong. Street Sheikh has been a bit unlucky not to win a few more races than he has. I’ve been keen to back him in recent starts but haven’t been able to due to the jockey booking he’s had, but he gets a big change today with Michael Dee taking over. (13) Seductive Miss backed up a good first up win with a solid effort last start and draws well so can run well again here. With the scratching of Greyworm we are getting $4.60 for Snitzepeg and $5.50 for Street Sheikh. Happy to dutch bet here and have a good crack at both.
Also backing: (2) Street Sheikh $5.50 Palmerbet
RACE 9
Tough race to finish off with. (12) Call Me Handsome is suited here, third up from a spell at 1400m with a good draw in barrier 5. His two runs back from a spell have been excellent and all he needs is a clear run in the straight to be right in the finish here. (2) Ozi Choice drops back from 1600m to 1400m here and will roll forward from the wide gate. Much better suited at this distance and he’ll be hard to run down from the front. (8) Mask Of Time ran a great race first up to be beaten 0.7L, finishing just behind Call Me Handsome. Will be coming from a long way back with the wide draw but he’s won second up before and looks a big price. (9) Malaise was the winner of that race, defeating Widgee Turf as well as Call Me Handsome and Mask Of Time. Drawn well again in barrier 7 and only goes up marginally in weight. Can be competitive again. Watching the market with (5) Theanswermyfriend having his second start for Weir.
Value: (9) Malaise $11 UBET
(12) Call Me Handsome
$4.60
