Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, February 23rd.
We have a monster card with nine races, featuring three Group 1s with the Futurity Stakes, the Blue Diamond Stakes and the Oakleigh Plate. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the 3m position.
Check out our selections for every race below!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 Avilius
Best Value Bet: Race 4 Street Icon
RACE 1
The Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig stable have a complete stranglehold on this race with the top two elects in the market. I’d be surprised if we saw the winner come from outside those two horses as they appear to have a distinct class edge on the rest of the field. Sikandarabad comes up the even-money favourite, having run 2nd to Australian Cup favourite Avilius last start over the mile. He’s now third up and stepping up to 2000m. Drawn wide so he’ll need to come from the back of the field but he should be winning this. Stablemate Jaameh tackles this first up. If this had have been his second run back I’d probably have him on top, but first up at 2000m might just find him out against his stablemate third up and stepping up in distance. With that said, he is a winner at this track and distance and has a decent first up record. He’s also drawn to sit closer in the run. Now in his third Australian preparation, I think he can go close in some big races this Autumn.
RACE 2
Tricky race as not much stands out. Lunar Flare trounced her rivals at the Valley last start, winning by 6L over the mile. That race has already produced two subsequent winners. She draws well in barrier 3 here and being bred by Fiorente, will definitely relish the step up to 1800m. She looks a filly on the up and she finds a very winnable race. Godolphin have thrown the kitchen sink at Aramayo second up today, stepping up to 1800m, with Bowman on and blinkers added for the first time. He was a Group 3 winner over the mile last prep and was beaten just a nose in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m, so he obviously has a bit of class. With that said, he was beaten 6L first up. Declares War is another that comes out of that race behind Hawkshot. He finished second last but he was solid through the line at his first start in eight weeks and steps up sharply to 1800m, which should bring about sharp improvement. Global Exchange won a BM58 easily first up and comes into this with blinkers on for the first time. Normally, I’d be dismissive of a horse coming off a BM58 win but I think this is a race he can be competitive in.
Value: Global Exchange $10
RACE 3
Competitive race. Hard to split the favourites I Am A Star and Spanish Reef, who both finished alongside each other first up over 1200m here at Caulfield. Both carried 59kg over and both ran similar sectionals in the run home. I Am A Star ran a slightly faster 400m-200m split, but Spanish Reef ran a slightly better final 200m. From the barrier, Spanish Reef looks to get a great run on the speed, but it’s hard to predict how they’re going to ride I Am A Star from barrier 11. Leaning towards Spanish Reef from the draw. I think Naantali is a good chance of rolling them both, though. She’s got race fitness on her side and comes off a strong win at this course and distance last start, where she ran good time. She carried 60kg on that occasion and drops to 56kg today. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 but she’s capable of winning this. Jamaican Rain scares me, while Supre still remains a touch unexposed. Backing Spanish Reef and Naantali.
Also backing: Naantali $5.50
RACE 4
WA filly Angelic Ruler makes the trip across to Melbourne after winning three of her four starts this preparation. A couple of those wins have been particularly impressive and she finds a race that she can definitely be competitive in. We’ve seen the WA stack up more and more in Melbourne the last couple of years so while I think she’s short enough in the market, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win. Qafila returns for the first time since being beaten 2.2L in the Kennedy Oaks during the Spring. I’m not a big fan of backing these 3YO fillies first up after running over 2500m but this stable had Amphitrite sharp enough to win last weekend after running in the Oaks so again, it wouldn’t surprise to see her win. She’s had the market support to suggest she’s ready to go. Street Icon is the way I’m going to go in the race though. She’s two from two so far, with dominant wins at Bairnsdale and Sandown. She beat Metronome last start, who has form around the likes of Embrace Me, so despite the sharp step up in grade, I think she’s capable of running a big race, particularly if she gets across to lead from barrier 10. $9.50 looks a great price.
RACE 5
Not much to write about here after Tin Hat was scratched, which leaves Zousain a deservedly very short-priced favourite. He’s been beaten a nose in three Group 1’s during his nine-race career, most recently in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes behind Sunlight. Trialled very nicely leading into today and should be winning this.
RACE 6
Alizee goes on top here in the G1 Futurity Stakes but unlike some are suggesting, I don’t think she’s an absolute moral. She’s been nothing short of dominant in her two starts back from a spell, which have both been over 1200m, and she now looks ready for the step up to 1400m. She gets Bowman on, which this time of year is a little bit concerning, and she’s drawn barrier 11 so will be a fair way back in the field. I’d probably rather her be drawn there though, as it means Bowman can ride safe and pull her to the outside. She’s going to need to be at her very best to win today, but based on her first two runs she is the one to beat. Stablemate Best Of Days draws barrier 1 with Craig Williams on board and I expect him to go close. He was beaten less than a length in the Orr Stakes after being held up until the 150m mark. He was a Group 1 winner in a handicap last prep but looks to have handled the step up to WFA company well. Good second up record and goes well at this track, so expect him to be right in the finish. Land Of Plenty has had another stable change since running 2nd in the Orr Stakes. He’s put the writing on the wall in both starts this prep and will no doubt be flashing home from the back. Material Man was a touch unlucky in the Orr Stakes and with a better ride probably finishes a lot closer. He’s got a terrific second up record and looks a solid each way chance once again. Brave Smash gets blinkers on third up and looks ready to win.
RACE 7
I was with Godolphin filly Athiri in the Prelude and I’m sticking with her in the grand final today. She was posted wide without cover and was still beaten just 0.7L. I think with that run under the belt she’s going to be right on the mark for today’s Blue Diamond. The wide barrier doesn’t concern me as you’ll see the majority of recent winners have come from out there. This stable have a freakish arsenal of two-year-old’s so I’d be very surprised if the one they’ve picked for this race doesn’t go close. I think we need to keep in mind the starting price of Catch Me from last start. She was a very heavily supported $2.10 favourite in the fillies Prelude, but failed badly to finish 10th of 12. She gets blinkers on for the first time today and this stable are renowned as being grand final trainers, and we saw a similar thing happen with Capitalist in the Golden Slipper a few years back before he came out and won that, so I wouldn’t be dismissing her at the odds today. I was originally keen on backing Loving Gaby after her dominant first up win but she’s had lameness concerns this week so that’s enough to put me off in a race of this depth. Andrassy Avenue was dominant last start and could go well at longer odds, while Lyre was equally impressive in winning the Prelude and shouldn’t be dismissed.
RACE 8
This is a tough race to bet into. It could purely come down to whether Nature Strip jumps cleanly or not. If he does, we might look at the $2.30 and think it was the best price ever. If he doesn’t, we’ll be looking back at the $2.30 thinking it was poison for a horse that’s cracked under pressure previously. I think if he jumps cleanly, he’ll win, so I have to put him on top. He was way too good for his rivals first up; although there are legitimate queries given he beat Jungle Edge on firm ground, he was in another postcode. Spright looks the value in the race at double figure odds. She was enormous in her first two starts last preparation behind Viddora and Brave Smash. Drawn wide but if they go hard up front, look for her descending on them late with the light weight. Eduardo comes into this first up and history points to that being a positive. He’s drawn the carpark but he might slide across to sit outside Nature Strip. He’s yet to finish outside the top two in five career starts and comes into this off an 8L trial win. I’ll Have A Bit is another that will be hitting the line hard from the back of the field and has been competitive in G1 company previously. $21 looks overs. It really wouldn’t shock to see a complete blowout here, but it also wouldn’t surprise to see Nature Strip destroy them.
RACE 9
The only way I see Avilius losing this is if Bowman murders him from barrier 1. He was simply too classy for them first up over the mile and you’d think as he rises in distance, he’s only going to be harder to beat. We’ll get a good guide on the form from his first up win with Sikandarabad in the first race. Night’s Watch finished 3rd to him first up and actually gets in 0.5kg worse at the weights so it’s hard to see him turning the tables. D’Argento is the one I’d be most worried about. He’s a classy animal on his day and drops back from Group 1 company. Straight up to 1800m second up and I would expect him to bounce back to form. Shillelagh also typically improves second up so look for her at longer odds.
