Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, February 11th

What an outstanding day of racing we have at Caulfield on Saturday with a 9 race program headlined by the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes!

Along with the Orr, we also have three Group 2's and four Group 3's on what is a cracking card. The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail in the True position. We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!

Race 1

Interesting race to kick off and I had it between HIPPARCHUS and OUR BOTTINO but there are others that could pop up. Signoff returns from a spell for the new stable and at his best would smash this field but he's obviously had several injury problems and it's hard to know what level of fitness he'll be at first up here. Second Bullet is another that would be good enough to win on his day and this is easier than what he contested all of last prep, and he has won a trial leading into this, but typically takes a couple of runs to hit form. Refulgent gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Our Bottino for a 1.5L margin from last start and he also has a great record at Caulfield. But I think HIPPARCHUS is the one they all have to beat. His last two starts have been impressive. He was luckless two starts ago at the Valley and it looked like it could be a similar story last start but he really charged through when he got a split and showed impressive acceleration. Down to 54kg here with the rise in grade, but he's going well enough to win this and I think the price is very backable at $3. Sticky barrier the only concern.

Tip: Hipparchus 

Race 2

Good race this and one that looks very competitive on paper. Hard to split the top four hopes in the market and any could win but I'm keen to continue following SNITZSON who continues to deliver for us. I think he's pretty talented and his win last start was impressive, coming through traffic from the back of the field to win. This is a big step up in grade but he's been freshened up and the small field will allow him to be much closer. PEACOCK always needs a fresh run but tends to improve significantly second and third run back. He comes through a strong form race behind Malaguerra and at $6 he looks a decent price here. RUTHVEN ran 2nd behind Morton's Fork in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas last time we saw him and returns for the first time since then. If he's tuned up he can definitely go close, while ATTENTION makes the trip down from Sydney for the Snowdens after finishing 3.2L behind Music Magnate first up. I'm not convinced he's going as well as he could be but you must take notice every time the Snowdens run one in Melbourne. 

Tip: Snitzson

Race 3

The Blue Diamond Prelude for the Fillies here and I still think CATCHY is a leading hope in the Blue Diamond and she can prove that once more here. She's done nothing in her two starts to suggest she shouldn't start favourite here, defeating Limestone by 0.7L on debut before beating Property by 2.25L last start. Limestone has of course come out and won twice since, while Property made his field look second rate last start. That tells me Catchy is very good and the times she is running back that up. I think she's a good bet here at $2.70 and I think she'll be right in the picture for the Blue Diamond. The interesting runner is ROOMOOZ who didn't beat much on debut but certainly did it in good enough time and has since won a trial by 5.5L but I think she has a bit to do to get near Catchy or Limestone.

Tip: Catchy (Best Bet)

Race 4

Love the look of this race with a number of good colts and geldings involved here and a bit more depth than the fillies race. I'm really keen to see how CAO CAO runs here and I'll be backing him as I think he's a very talented colt. His two runs so far have been very good - he was a bit unlucky on debut before a sizzling win at his second race start over 1000m at the Valley. He hasn't been seen since but has jumped out impressively at Caulfield and I think he is the real deal. PROPERTY ran 2nd to Catchy on debut and then won in a canter last start over 1000m at Caulfield in good time. He'll get a great run from barrier 3 and his win last start certainly suggests he can win here, while PARIAH has been sent down from Sydney after a win over the very promising Menari on debut. He'll get back from barrier 9 but the Sydney form usually holds up very well in Melbourne and as I said above, the Snowdens don't send down horses that can't win. At longer odds, Indernile, Wait For No One and Will's Bid represent a bit of value.

Tip: Cao Cao

Race 5

Looks a race between JENNIFER LYNN and FUHRYK here and hard to split them. JENNIFER LYNN resumed with a very good 2nd over the 1100m Flemington straight when she was left without cover up in the leading division in a race that turned out to be suited to backmarkers. I think the step up to 1200m here second up from a break is ideal and I think she is the better horse so she goes on top. FUHRYK was desperately unlucky not to make it four straight wins last start at Flemington when held up from the 400m-200m in the straight before getting out and flashing home to finish 4th. The stable thinks she will be better suited around a bend and she's won 3 from 4 over the distance. She is flying and Williams takes over today so no surprise to see her win this. SELENIA was backed first up and ran well so she can go well again with extra fitness under the belt, while FACTS could be the blowout after a solid debut win.

Tip: Jennifer Lynn

Race 6

Great to see CHAUTAUQUA back at the races but the obvious question is whether he is back to his best after a below par campaign last time in. At his best he would clearly take care of this field but it's hard to know until we see him in a race. Then there is the fact he carries 59.5kg first up, which probably wouldn't be a problem if he was in peak form but if he's not then that is enough to weigh him down. There's a lot of IF's here and the drift on him suggests many are in the same boat. $2.60 is a great price if he is back to his best but with so many questions hanging over him it's not a price I'll be betting into. Instead I'll be taking the $7 available for EL DIVINO who was heavily backed for his first start for Darren Weir and ran well to finish 2nd. I think in a race which lacks much tempo he can sit up near the lead and with a run under his belt and just 54kg on his back he should give a great sight. His stablemate HELLBENT finished behind him in 3rd last start but probably should have won. He goes up slightly in weight but can certainly turn things around, while WILD RAIN looks the natural leader here and won the Monash Stakes over track and distance first up last prep.

Tip: El Divino

Race 7

Outstanding line up for the Group 1 Orr Stakes here. MALAGUERRA returned with a blistering win at Moonee Valley in the Group 2 Australia Stakes where he beat Black Heart Bart by 2 lengths and he steps up to the 1400m here for the first time since June last year. If he had have drawn a gate I think he'd be a pretty good thing but drawing barrier 12 of 12 makes him vulnerable. I think there is enough pace in the race with Ecuador, Miss Rose De Lago, Turn Me Loose etc that he won't be able to just cross to the lead and run the race on his terms. Instead I think he'll either be caught wide or have to do some early work to get a position, which may leave him a sitting duck in the straight. Either that or they choose to go back but I doubt they'll be doing that. For that reason I'll be backing BLACK HEART BART here, who also draws wide but will go back and get cover. Here are some pretty impressive stats: he's only ever finished outside the top 2 once for Darren Weir (last year's Cox Plate), has never finished outside the top 2 when second up from a spell, has only finished outside the top 2 once from 11 starts over 1400 (and has won 6 of those) and has 3 wins and a 2nd from 4 starts at the track. The horse is just a star and I think the step up to 1400m is enough to turn the tables on Malaguerra here given the circumstances of the race. LUCKY HUSSLER is another of Weir's runners and he should have made it back to back Magic Millions Cup's at the Gold Coast. On his day he is a genuine Group 1 horse and with the run he is set to get in the race from barrier 7 it wouldn't shock me to see him win. PALENTINO is Weir's third horse in the race and while I think he'll be competitive, I'm going to wait to back him until he hits the Futurity in two weeks, although I'd prefer him over 1600m at Flemington. TURN ME LOOSE is much better suited here second up over 1400m and could be the blowout along with HE'S OUR ROKKI, but in truth any of these could win without surprising, except for Awesome Rock who will need the run.

Tip: Black Heart Bart

Race 8

Pretty keen on HUMIDOR here who we backed first up in the John Dillon Stakes when he ran a sizzling final sectional to finish 0.8L off the winner Grande Rosso. Gets a 3kg weight swing here down to 57kg and the step up to 1600m is absolutely ideal. He's undefeated second up and make no mistake, this is a Group 1 horse on his way to better races. Barrier 11 makes things slightly tricky but with Burning Front, Pilote D'essai and Tom Melbourne in the race there should be enough pace on for him to get over the top.

Tip: Humidor

Race 9

Hard race to finish off the day. I think we're getting a good price about THAMES COURT here first up from a spell. Never missed the top 2 when first up from a spell and never missed the top 2 over 1200m so those stats read well. First up last prep ran 2nd to Ocean Embers in this grade so the only query here is the gate but I anticipate they'll go forward and sit outside the leader which could be Choose or Prussian Vixen. PRUSSIAN VIXEN is racing in good form and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Ameristralia from last start so from barrier 2 I think she is the clear value in the race at double figure odds. SILENT SEDITION gave Sheidel a good race over 1200m first up last prep and that form is the best you'll find for this race but I just wonder if she can do it again first up with 59kg. Happy to take on AMERISTRALIA with the bad gate. 

Tip: Thames Court / Prussian Vixen EW (Best Value)