Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, August 31st.
Group 1 racing returns to Melbourne with the Memsie Stakes headlining the card. In case you missed it, Before You Bet are teaming up with Betfair Australia to run a FREE competition on the Memsie Stakes, with a stack of Betfair merchandise to give away! Check out the tweet below or click here for more details!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, August 31st
Best Bet: Race 3 - (4) My Pendant
Best Value Bet: Race 9 - (10) A Shin Rook
Tempted to stay out of this race completely as there's very little appeal to get involved. I'm expecting a sharp turnaround in form from (1) Naval Warfare who comes into this third up from a spell. He always needs his first two runs back but he's won three of his four starts when third up. He also gets up to a suitable distance now. He's had three starts over 2400m and has never finished out of the top two. Gets a soft run from barrier 2 and should be thereabouts. (2) US Army Ranger has done absolutely zilch in two Australian starts but he should also be able to improve today. He's finished in the top two in all three of his second up starts. (4) Another Coldie has never been tested over this distance but he might get away with the fitness edge he has today, while (6) Jinda is flying but she has to do it on firm ground today.
Value: (2) US Army Ranger $15
Great race. (16) Diamond Effort goes on top after a solid effort behind the ultra-impressive Pippie first up over 1100m here. She settled back in the field from barrier 14 that day but draws the inside gate here with Oliver retaining the ride. Expect to see her settle much further forward in the run and she should be right in the finish. (3) Chess Star returns as a gelding today for the Waterhouse/Bott team. He bolted in first up last prep in Sydney so expect him to go straight to the front and give a great sight. It'd be no surprise to see him lead all the way here and the fact they've booked Mark Zahra to ride and opted against a claim tells you he should be ready to win fresh. (4) Mastering has won two from three first up and resumes with the blinkers on today. He's drawn for a goo run and he'll be charging home if they go too hard up front. (14) Ruban Bleu will settle well back but he's in terrific form and will appreciate the strong tempo of the race, while (12) Dawn Dawn isn't hopeless at all. Plenty of chances in this!
(16) Diamond Effort
$3.60
I love this mare, (4) My Pendant. She only just scrambled home last start but that victory took her record to four wins and three 2nds from eight starts. The horse she beat is also flying and they cleared out from the third horse, so the performance was still good. She might appreciate getting back onto firmer ground today and she should be right at her peak third up. She's very hard to beat provided she handles Caulfield. (2) Music Bay has a good fresh record and resumes with concussion plates off for the first time, which is a positive. (7) Hay Now could be a bit of value at $15. Her run last start wasn't all that bad and she has a good third up record, including a win at Flemington last preparation.
Just about anything could win this. I think Chris Waller's (6) Captain Cook could be a decent each way bet here at $8.50. He made his Australian debut over the mile here two weeks ago and finished off nicely to be beaten a touch over 1.5L. He's got a few little gear changes for today but the big thing is his second up record. He's had five starts for two wins and two 2nds when second up. The firm ground should also bring about improvement as all three victories have come on Good ground. (3) Steel Prince raced five times for five wins last prep so even though this is short of his best, he should be competitive. (5) Lord Fandango resumes as a gelding so it will be interesting to see if that brings about a return to form. (8) Guizot has a great record at the track but would probably prefer it wet, (14) Benitoite is flying and deserves her crack at a Stakes race, while (9) Semari isn't hopeless with an undefeated second up record.
(6) Captain Cook E/W
$8.50
What a race this is. Excited to see the return of (4) Super Seth who was outstanding in his first two career starts before things just didn't pan out well for him in defeat last time we saw him. He resumes today and expect him to be ridden off the pace to make full use of his booming finish. (9) Missile Mantra is undefeated from two career starts, including a Listed victory at this track. He returns from a break and draws well for Damian Lane. (5) Peidra has done nothing wrong in his two career victories to date, while (3) King Of Hastings has also done little wrong in three starts. (7) Shotmaker ran 2nd in the Blue Diamond Prelude on debut before failing in the Diamond. He returns for the first time today and he's a bit of an unknown as you never quite know how they'll return as three-year-olds. Cracking race but I'll stick with Super Seth, and save on Missile Mantra.
You won't see a better weighted horse than (4) Vega Magic today. He's a dual Group 1 winner rated 113 and carries less weight than the likes of (3) Gytrash who is an 89 rater. Vega Magic resumes with the blinkers on today and if he produces anywhere near his best form he'll win this. Gytrash won easily down the Flemington straight last start in Listed grade. This is harder but he goes well fresh and can be around the mark again. (1) Ball Of Muscle is the horse they're all going to have to run down. He's undefeated at this track and distance and he'll bowl along in front. (8) Glenall can run a good race fresh at $21, he returns as a gelding, while (5) Malaguerra makes his stable debut for Lindsay Smith so I'd be very interested to see what he can do.
If (13) Pippie can find the lead and the rail here, the race might be over. She's been simply dominant in her two runs back from a spell this time in. Last start she cruised home over 1100m here at Caulfield, going to the line 3L clear under a stranglehold. She wasn't far off the likes of Multaja and Sunlight last year and she looks to have improved out of sight since then, so I think there's a little bit of depth to her form. (11) Sylvia's Mother gets the suck run behind her from barrier 1. She's won five of her eight starts and beat a smart one in My Pendant last start. She'll go well. (1) Amphitrite might find the 1200m a touch sharp and she's drawn barrier 12 with 59kg today, so it's hardly an ideal set up for her, but she'll be hitting the line hard from the back of the field. She won easily over 1400m first up last prep. (5) Embrace Me will improve on her first up performance, while they've thrown the kitchen sink at (6) Aloisia today. She is first up for the new stable and has blinkers on for the first time.
Race 8 (Market) - G1 Memsie Stakes
Expecting this to be run at a fairly furious tempo which should set the race up nicely for (11) Alizee, who will be ridden cold from the wide barrier. She could have won by a lot more than she did first up and while the form out of that race is very questionable, I think she's got the class to win this. She's won her only start at this track and distance and I think 1200m-1400m is her best distance. She trucked up into the All Star Mile last prep like she'd win but just emptied out the last furlong. A hot tempo over 1400m should allow her to pounce with her dominant turn of foot. (5) Scales Of Justice has been very well backed. He was dominant first up over 1200m here at Caulfield before a surprise defeat in Adelaide last start. The horse that beat him might have a fair bit of talent though and Scales tends to go very well third up from a spell. They'll ride him forward and he'll look the winner at some stage. (1) Hartnell is the each way bet in the race at $7.50. He's never missed a place over this track and distance and from barrier 1 he'll get a beautiful run in transit off the speed. (9) Begood Toya Mother is the new kid on the block, having won his last six starts leading into this. He's thrown right in the deep end here. He steps up from Listed grade to a WFA Group 1 against some of the country's best horses, and he's drawn barrier 13. There already looks good speed on paper but with him burning across from out wide, they could go pretty fast up front, which might bring him undone late. Wouldn't shock me to see (2) Black Heart Bart run a cheeky race first run back.
Three standouts to close out the day here and I'm happy to back them all at equal stakes. (18) Age Of Chivalry is the favourite at $2.70, so basically if he wins we'll get our money back. He won fairly easily last start over this track and distance and prior to that he was huge in defeat at Moonee Valley first up. He'll go forward from the wide gate and if he finds the lead, he'll be tough to get past. I expect really sharp improvement from (2) Iconoclasm. He just doesn't go on wet ground so forgive him for that first up effort. He's got a good record at this distance and has won two from three at Caulfield. D Oliver back on and back to firm ground both positives. (10) A Shin Rook is the one I think is the value. He's a $13 chance with Craig Williams on board. The key to this horse is the good track. He's had six starts on Good ground for three wins and two placings, while he's never placed in six starts on wet ground. He's got a decent enough first up record and two of his four career wins have been over 1400m. He's suited to run well today.
Value: (10) A Shin Rook $13
