Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, April 4th.
The track is currently rated a Heavy 8 and there's more rain forecast for Saturday, so it looks like we'll be racing on a very wet track. The rail is in the 9m position.
You can also view our preview and betting tips for Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick here!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 4th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (8) Russian Camelot
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (3) Charossa
Race 1
We've got a $2.20 favourite to kick off the day here in the form of (10) Forever Free but that looks awfully short to my eye. She led all the way to win on debut at Ballarat and did it easy enough, and she'll find the front here, but I still think that's a short quote on what's set to be a pretty wet track. I think there's two at good odds here. (11) Phere Her was one I backed at good odds last start and she had no luck go her way at all, caught three-deep the trip in the St Albans Stakes at Moonee Valley. The winner of that was Larimer Street, who lines up in the Sires' Produce in Sydney today, so it was a decent race. Prior to that, she again had no luck when on debut at Cranbourne, held up at a crucial stage of the straight before getting clear late and charging home. That was on a Soft 7 so she'll handle the wet ground today and she should get a good run from barrier 5. I think she's a huge price at $21. (12) Sahara Song ran 2nd to Maha on debut at Moonee Valley. Maha is undefeated from two career starts and has been impressive in both, so that might be a pretty good form line. Craig Williams is a notable booking today and she's bred by Your Song, who was a mudlark, so she should handle the wet ground. She's not without a hope at $11. Something on both Phere Her and Sahara Song, happy to let the favourite go around.
Also backing: (12) Sahara Song $11
Race 2
Pretty keen on (1) Inverloch here. He's flying at the moment. Three starts ago, he ran 2nd to Aktau over 2000m here, then won the Mornington Cup Prelude, and then ran 2nd to Aktau again last start in the Mornington Cup. I think that's a terrific form line and all three of those runs were on firm ground. He goes much better on wet ground, with five of his six career wins coming on either soft or heavy tracks, which is what he's sure to get here. He will be better having had that run over 2400m under his belt last start, and there is no apprentice riding better than Thomas Stockdale at the moment, who takes a useful 3kg off. He should lead and take plenty of beating. (8) MIrimar is knocking on the door for a win, with three consecutive placings. 2400m is his best distance and he steps up to that distance for the first time this preparation after three runs at 2000m. (7) Good Idea ran 2nd in the Adelaide Cup last start and has found form over this sort of distance. Dropping back from 3200m to 2400m is a query but he likes wet ground. (5) Lycurgus jumped out of the ground last start and has finished in the top two in five of his six starts over this distance.
Race 3
This is a tough one to work out and I might zig when I should zag here, but it's that sort of race. (1) Buffalo River returns to the races here for the first time since finishing last in the Golden Eagle last October. He won his first three starts in Australia prior to that, and at hs best there is no doubt at all that he's the best horse in this race. I thought his first jumpout at Flemington this prep was exceptional, but then his second jumpout was very underwhelming to my eye. He was placed under pressure in the straight and didn't find a great deal at all. Granted, the horse he ran 2nd to was Vinland who is certainly no hack, but I thought he'd go better than what he did. With that in mind, adding in the fact he's first up on a likely heavy track from a wide gate with 60kg, he could be vulnerable. I'm going to stick with (15) Killavally who has race fitness on his side and should be peaking third up. He looked home last start but was run down by Beehunter, who was backed as if unbeatable on the day. That backed up a terrific run first up. He won third up last prep on a heavy track so he shoud handle the conditions. Some query with Zahra jumping off and barrier 16 is no help, but he's going very well. I think the value is (16) Mai Shiny Choice. Not quite sure why he's $26. He's first emergency at the moment so hopefully there is a scratching in the morning and he gets a run. He was beaten less than a length two starts ago at Ballarat and was again only 0.4L off the winner last start after sitting three-wide without cover the entire trip. He goes much better on wet ground so he'll appreciate the rain, gets a good draw in barrier 4 and looks a big price.
Value: (16) Mai Shiny Choice $26
Race 4
This race is wide open. Giving another chance to (13) Oasis Girl who I was keen on at odds first up but she went absolutely awful. She gets the tongue tie applied for the first time today which suggests to me she may have choked down. Her form from last prep was very good and she ended up running 4th in Listed company where she sat three-wide the trip. She's got the talent to win a race like this and she's an each way bet again today at $14. (11) Talented is another to throw in at each way odds. She resumed with a win on the Hillside course at Sandown, which showed he had come back in much better shape this preparation than she did last time in. She just didn't come up last prep, but her two-year-old form was exceptional, with placings behind the likes of Microphone and Flit. The heavy track is some query - she failed first up last prep on heavy ground, but then again she failed in every start last campaign regardless of the surface. Her breeding actually suggests she should handle the wet. The form out of that race at Hillside has already been franked through Affair To Remember and Walking Flying on Wednesday. From the good draw I'll be having something on at $11. (3) Hint Of Mint could be the hardest to beat. She started favourite first up, then won second up at Pakenham before running 2nd to Sansom in Adelaide last start. Sansom has won six from 11 starts and they pulled more than three lengths clear of the rest. Just needs to overcome the tricky draw.
Also backing: (11) Talented $11
Race 5
Another extremely open race. (3) Absolute Flirt ran well first up when beaten a nose in the Listed Moomba Plate at Flemington. She's never finished out of the top two from three attempts when second up from a spell, so with Craig Williams on board, she looks a good chance despite drawing out in barrier 18. (9) Exeter is value at $20. I don't normally back horses like him who have a poor record at a certain track, but I'm going to give him a chance today. He's yet to place from five starts at Caulfield, but he did run 4th last start and ran a final 400m equal to that of the winner, who he gets a 4kg weight swing on today. His other four starts at Caulfield came in the Blue Diamond, Blue Diamond Prelude, Caulfield Guineas and Caulfield Guineas Prelude, where he was simply outclassed. He won second up last prep, he draws well in barrier 4 and the other query is the wet track, but at big odds I'm having something on. (7) Lucifer's Reward is undefeated first up from a spell and comes into this fresh off a nine-week break. He's got some very good form lines behind the likes of Diamond Effort, Alabama Express and How Womantic so can be included at $23. (8) Broadwayandfourth was last seen running in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and comes into this first up with two trials under the belt. Hard to get a gauge on those trials as they were fairly quiet. Phillip Stokes has two runners in the market here with (5) Ancestry and (13) Defiant Dancer, but he's 0/20 at Caulfield this season.
Race 6
Another competitive race. (6) Diamond Effort has had a faultless campaign to date, with three wins from as many starts. She won the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington two weeks ago, which followed dominant wins at Flemington and Caulfield. She will handle the conditions no problem. She's already got four top-two finishes from five starts on wet ground, and she's bred by Mossman whose progeny typically relish rain-affected ground. There are a couple of negatives for her here. She drops back to 1000m, which is a distance she's actually never raced over. Her preparation has gone 1100m, 1100m, 1200m and now back in trip to the 1000m. She goes up to 57kg, draws wide in barrier 11, and those factors are enough for me to think she's vulnerable today, even though I do think she deserves favouritism. One horse that ran against her in the Hareeba Stakes was (7) William Thomas, who again lines up here. You can completely forget he even went around at Mornington, he was absolutely slaughtered, running up backsides for the final 400m of the race. He's a horse with a good record here at Caulfield so include him in your exotics at $14. I'm actually keen on two horses first up from a spell here. (4) Parsifal represents the stables of Will Clarken in South Australia, and whenever he sends horses across the border, you have to take notice. He ran 2nd to Zoutori first up last prep and a repeat of that would see him win this. He should handle the wet - he's got two Soft 6 wins in the past - and he's undefeated from two starts at the distance. Looks a big player here. The sneaky one is (8) Miss Iano, who is the value at $13. She's got five wins on wet ground, so the conditions will be no problem, and she comes into this first up from a spell. She jumped out sharply at Cranbourne last week, winning the heat under no pressure, and Craig Williams goes straight on today which catches the eye. Last time she raced she finished 3rd behind Tofane and Pippie, which is Group 1 form. (14) More Than Exceed profiles well for this. He's got a phenomenal first up record with three wins and a 2nd from four starts, and he's got seven top-two finishes from eight starts on soft ground, so he loves the wet! The worry is his record at Caulfield and the record of his trainer Phillip Stokes here too.
Race 7
Really nice race this. (8) Russian Camelot is a big spruik horse and looks destined for better races. He did enough first up over 1400m at Flemington where he completely blew the start by 3L but still managed to run 4th, beaten 2.7L by Spend. Riddle Me That ran 2nd that day and has since come out to win the Bendigo Guineas. Damien Oliver goes on Russian Camelot today, he'll handle the wet and I think he's better than the rest of these horses, but he will really need to jump well from barrier 2 otherwise it's game over again. I think he'll win with even luck. (4) Beehunter was backed as if they knew the result last start at Sandown Hillside, where he came from last on the turn to run down Killavally. He drew wide that day so I don't think we'll see him that far back from a lower draw today. Don't have much knowledge on whether he will handle the conditions or not but based on his effort last start, he's an exciting horse on his day. (11) Tooradin has improved with every start and comes off a dominant win at Ballarat last start. He's facing a steep rise in class and finds himself in a hot race but he's another horse that's on an unward curve.
(8) Russian Camelot
$2.50
Race 8
She'll need a good ride from Oliver but (7) Benitoite finds a lovely race today. She is an out and out wet tracker, with five wins from six starts on rain-affected ground. She's never placed on good ground. The one time she missed a place on wet ground was last start in the G1 Coolmore Classic in Sydney, where she ran 4th. This is a much easier race, she's back to her home track and she gets the conditions she needs. (3) Charossa could be the value for South Australian trainer Gordon Richards. When he brings his runners to Melbourne, get on. He's had 19 runners in Melbourne this season, for eight winners and nine placings. This horse is third up and although his third up record isn't great, he did run 2nd on a heavy track at this stage of his last campaign, and he sat wide without cover throughout the whole of that race. He goes well on heavy ground and at $9.00 looks a good each way price. (4) Exasperate is racing well and is undefeated at the track and distance.
Value: (3) Charossa $9.00
Race 9
Another very competitive race to close out the day. (14) Quaffany ran the fastest final 200m of the entire meeting first up at Moonee Valley. That was over the mile and he's only going to be better suited second up at 2000m today. He won four races straight last prep, ranging from 2000m to 2600m, including two on soft ground and one on heavy ground, so he gets things to suit today. (12) Declares War is ready to peak third up at 2000m today. His only prior run when third up was a win and he's undefeated on wet ground too. He'll be a long way back which is the query. (3) Lord Belvedere is an interesting runner first up here. He's had three Australian starts, two of which were wins. If he's firm in the market I expect him to run a big race. (1) Salsamor is flying with three wins on the bounce. He goes up again in weight here. I think the complete no-hope in the race is the favourite (8) Star Missile. How is he favourite?! How is he single figures?! I have no idea and I would be laying him to even run a place. He drops significantly in class from the All-Star Mile, but his two runs prior to that in this sort of grade were absolutely terrible. He looks a shadow of the horse we saw last prep and he's never run a place on rain-affected ground!
