Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, April 28th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 3 track with the rail in the 3m position. The track will be firm so as always at Caulfield, it will be better to be up on speed.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 #3 William Thomas
Best Value: Race 1 #4 Kaluna EW
RACE 1
Fairly low race to start off here. We’ve got a $2.80 favourite in (2) Snogging who was beaten 7L in Adelaide last start. Granted, she has been racing in harder races than this but it’s not as if she’s a clear standout on form, so at that price I’ll be taking her on. The problem is there isn’t many that do stand out here. (4) Kaluna is one I could entertain backing at $11. She was beaten 0.5L on debut at Mornington before breaking through at Cranbourne last start. She’s the likely leader in the race and with only 51kg on her back, they might find it hard to peg her back. (6) Diamond Bow was solid first up and the mile will suit her here, but the step up from 1200m straight to the 1600m is of some concern.
TIP: (4) Kaluna EW
RACE 2
Great little race. (5) Divine Quality goes on top for me at $4. She’s first up today with one quiet trial under the belt. Her first up record is unblemished, with a combined winning margin of 7.25L from two starts. Might need a good ride from barrier 8 but she’s capable of producing a big finish. The value in the race could be Weir’s (10) Scoliaro at $19. She’s up in grade here but she was solid in the market last start and really should have gone close to winning, but she raced tight for the final 100m-200m of the race. The booking of Tahlia Hope isn’t one that instils much confidence (she doesn’t ride often for Weir) but at that price I have to have something on. (7) Alta Stella won well first up before being nosed out in Adelaide last start, while (6) Creativity is very consistent and should go close fresh.
TIP: (5) Divine Quality / (10) Scoliaro EW
RACE 3
Keen on a couple here. (6) Sunday Pray goes on top. He had been knocking on the door this preparation before breaking through last start over 1600m at Sandown. Barrier 3 is ideal – he should either lead or sit off (3) Sircconi and rated a good winning chance once again. The value could be (4) Riyadh at $12. There’s some queries to him, but we’re getting a decent price. Firstly, he comes out of a very strong formline behind Kings Will Dream, but he did race in the right part of the track on that occasion, which may have flattered him somewhat. He also comes to Caulfield for the first time, and there’s some doubt as to whether this is the kind of track that will suit him. Nonetheless, he’s got a good third up record and can go well at the good odds. (8) My Paisann is nearing a win. My concern is barrier 1, which I don’t think is ideal for this horse. (1) Fidaawy makes his Australian debut for the Lindsay Park team. First up over 1600m has to be a query given his best distance will be 2000m+.
TIP: (6) Sunday Pray / (4) Riyadh EW
RACE 4
Big field. (13) Pleasant resumed with a dominant in at Pakenham, leading all the way to bolt in by 6L. leading into that he’d trialled very nicely against some Group horses, so he looks capable of making the step up in grade here, particularly with his racing style. He’s already been $3.60 into $2.70 and could start shorter. I think the value is (7) Wilde Gem. He carries a big weight here but there’s plenty of others that do as well, and the compressed weights mean it’s not that much of an issue. He put in a good run behind the very talented William Thomas first up, and he won second up last preparation over 1000m with 59kg. He finished 2nd at this track and distance at his only attempt, and I expect to see him motoring home down the outside late in the race. Good odds at $14. Wouldn’t rule out Weir’s charge (17) Mr Sinatra at $21. Comes off two country runs, would put a pen through last start on the heavy ground, and we often see them improve significantly after losing in the country for this stable.
TIP: (13) Pleasant / (7) Wilde Gem EW
RACE 5
Great little race but there’s one standout in (3) William Thomas. I think he’s very smart. Draws well in barrier 4, Oliver takes over today, and he can turn the table son (2) Reilmartini who draws wide after beating him from barrier 1 last start. Think $3.80 is a very fair price. (4) Sun Quan ran 2nd first up last prep and then won three races on the bounce. He resumes here from barrier 1 with Melham on board. Typically, Oliver would be riding a horse like this for Mick Price, so it’s telling that he takes the ride on William Thomas instead. Still expect Sun Quan to go well. (8) Light Romance had some good form last prep around the likes of Bella Martini and Twitchy Frank. First up here and could run well at double figure odds. (11) She’s Popular is a smokey at $18. It’s notable that Craig Williams takes the ride here for the Hayes stable, and they did say last prep that they thought she was pretty smart. She’s first up from a spell here and a win wouldn’t shock. (14) Redcore has come back well.
TIP: (3) William Thomas
RACE 6
Hard race to be confident in as it’s a two-year-old race with a few unseen debutantes. (1) Sunset Watch comes up short at $2 but does appear hard to beat after two very convincing wins in his past two starts. He won over 1200m two starts ago, so the trip is no issue, and he won over 1100m at this track last start, so he ticks plenty of boxes. The Mick Price pair are the only other two I’m interested in. (9) Persuader trialled very nicely leading into its debut. He finished alongside subsequent Group 1 winner Seabrook in the trial, and then on debut he made ground from well back in the field at Mornington, which isn’t easy to do at that track. Looks a decent price at $12. (3) Fighting Harada not hopeless.
TIP: (1) Sunset Watch / (9) Persuader EW
RACE 7
Wide open race. (2) Leather’n’lace might just be the best horse in the race here so I’ll side with class to get the job done. First up last prep she ran 2nd in Group 3 company behind Booker, who went on to be competitive at Group 1 level, so a repeat of that performance would make her tough to beat here. She does have weight and a wide barrier, which means she’ll be ridden very cold, but she’s got class. $5 is about the right price. Weir has another few in the race. The best of his other lot might be (12) Grey Shadow at $11, who won on debut before resuming with a 2nd placing at Sandown. Drops in weight, draws barrier 1 and expect her to go close here. The horse that beat her first up was (7) Island Daze, and she actually gets in better at the weights today. She’s won both career starts and there’s no reason she can’t go close again here, so the $9.50 appeals.
TIP: (2) Leather’n’lace / (7) Island Daze EW
RACE 8
Another wide-open race. (1) Runson bounced back to form with the step up to 1400m last start. He’s drawn wide but should slide across to find a similar position to what he did last start, which will make him hard to beat here. (2) Leodoro did a good job after a tough run last start and is knocking on the door, but he’ll once again be a long way back from the wide gate. (7) Silvera is an interesting runner first up here. Has a good fresh record but the jockey booking is a concerning one. (8) Rich Luck has been back to the trials since his last-start failure. No surprise to see a sharp turnaround in form from him. (12) Notio broke through for a deserved win last start after a consistent but luckless preparation. From the good draw here I’d like to see him midfield, and he rates a strong chance in this. (14) Spannerhead won first up over this distance last preparation. Draws well and gets in light so can run a race at odds. (17) Éclair Calling was huge first up when trapped four-wide the trip and only being beaten 2L in Adelaide. Always take note when this stable brings them across the border. Jockey booking not ideal but a decent chance at a good price. You could back a number of horses here, but I’ll side with Notio and Éclair Calling.
TIP: (12) Notio / (17) Éclair Calling EW
RACE 9
Absolute lottery. (18) No Commitment hasn’t done anything wrong lately, winning back-to-back races. The concern of mine last start was dropping back from 2000m to 1800m, but he overcame that and now steps back up in trip. Will slide across from the wide barrier and should run well once again. There’s a number of horses at big odds that could win this. (3) Hursley didn’t do anything first up but he’s not hopeless in this. He never does anything first up, but his second up record is much better, and Craig Williams jumps on today to take over from Jordan Childs, which suggests maybe the horse is ready to do something? He’s got a good record at this track and distance with seven starts producing three wins and three placings. Big odds at $26 but he can be competitive. (4) Abdon was solid on his Australian debut and Oliver takes over so expect him to run well with the step up in trip. (9) Prima, (10) Top Of The Range, (11) He Eckscels, (12) Jake’s Hill, (13) Noumea all chances.
TIP: (18) No Commitment / (3) Hursley EW
