The penultimate game of the 2023 NRL season takes place at Suncorp Stadium, as the Broncos and Warriors face off for the right to take on the winner of the first Prelim Final in next Sunday evening’s Grand Final. It will be the 3rd Grand Final appearance for the Warriors, and their first since 2011, whilst the Broncos are aiming to make their 8th Grand Final, and first since 2015.
It’s a massive day for both teams, and below we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every single game all throughout the NRL finals series, for free!
2023 NRL Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors
Suncorp Stadium, Saturday 23rd September, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Warriors were the most impressive team from the Semi-Finals last week, demolishing the Knights 40-10 in front of their adoring home fans. It was by the far their best performance since mid-July, when they spanked the Sharks 44-12, and it was the type of performance they needed to garner the belief to head to the cauldron that is Suncorp Stadium and get away with a win. The Warriors completed at 83%, outgained the Knights by 630 metres, and managed 7 line-breaks to 2. It was a dominant display, and against a team that was on a 10-game winning streak. Can the Wahs get one more win to make the big one?
The Broncos had the week off, however last time we saw them they were ultra impressive, shutting the Storm out in week 1 of the finals, 26-0. It was a tremendous display, and confirmed the Broncos as the most likely team to knock the Panthers off the top of the mountain. Whilst the Broncos were obviously solid in attack, it was their defence that really got people to sit up and take notice. Not many teams hold the Storm to zero points, especially in such a big game, and this young Broncos team showed they are good enough to go all the way this season.
These teams met once this season, back in round 13 at McLean Park in Napier. The Broncos were without Origin stars Payne Haas, Pat Carrigan, Reece Walsh, and Selwyn Cobbo for the matchup, and the market didn’t believe they could hang with the Warriors, as the Warriors closed 7.5-point favourites. The market was wrong, with the Broncos winning outright 26-22, and to be honest they should have won by more. The Broncos led 26-10 with just 6 minutes remaining, with two late converted tries for the Warriors making the scoreline that close.
So, the closing line in this earlier matchup can’t give us any insight on what the line should have been here, but it could well give us an indication of where this match is going. Speaking of the line, the Broncos opened 11.5-point favourites at home, however money has come in on the Warriors, as the number currently sits at Broncos -10.5. It’s fair enough, given how good the Warriors looked last week against the Knights. My raw number for this matchup is Broncos -9.5, however when I add in the week off, I see value in the Broncos at this price. If the Broncos can start hot like they did against the Storm, they can do exactly the same as they did last week and just shut this game down.
As for the total, it opened 42.5 and hasn’t moved all week, with the under fairly heavily juiced. I make a fair total 42 in this game, so based on my number I don’t see any real value in playing the total. Scoring has been down in this final’s series, so if I had to pick a side I’d lean to the under, and more so even look at the Warriors team total going under. No official play, but I might look at playing it myself towards kick-off.
Whilst I’d love to see a competitive matchup here, I’ve been of the opinion for most of the season that the Panthers and Broncos are the top 2 sides, and I have the Broncos as a tier above the Warriors. They should be far too good here, and they don’t appear to be showing any signs of the moment being too big for them. Broncos to win, and aim for their 6th NRL Premiership in just over a week’s time.
Broncos (-10.5)
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Broncos (-4.5) – As above
Selwyn Cobbo (1+ try) – 5 tries in his last 3 games, Cobbo lives for these moments. Attacking the weaker left-edge defence of the Warriors, Cobbo could be in for multiple tries here.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ has had a career year, and the flying perm is as good a chance as anyone to cross the stripe for the Warriors.
SGM Odds: $5.75 at Picklebet
