Super Saturday NRL action will start in Brisbane this week, with the resurgent Broncos team hosting a gritty Bulldogs outfit. Both sit close to one another not only on the competition ladder but also the NRL Power Rankings. The result in this match could have a large impact on the make up on the Top 8 also, so more than just fans of these two clubs will be viewing this contest. Before You Bet will take a comprehensive look at how this match will play out, with the aim of finding you a winner to add to your enjoyment.
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Suncorp Stadium – Saturday 27th July – 3pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Broncos needed a win last week against the Knights to break a 6-game losing streak. It was a pleasing performance with their Origin players returning, further supported by Reynolds coming back from injury. Needing a win to keep touch with the Top 8, they jumped to an 18-nil lead at HT. There was a sense that they were always in control of the result. Despite having a lesser share of possession (49%) and an inferior completion rate (75%), they made more total metres with fewer carries (9.8m per carry) and had 11 line breaks. The dimension of their attack changed dramatically with Reynolds allowing others to shirt wider and attack the edges. They still missed 43 tackles and will want to improve in that area.
The Bulldogs headed up to Townsville to face the Cowboys in a tricky contest and left empty handed following their 20-18 loss. Trying hard to compete for 80 minutes, the Bulldogs pushed their opponents. Entitled to be closer in betting, they lost no admirers with their determined effort. They gave themselves every possible chance; with 53% possession they had a superior completion rate (80%) and made more total metres. They will be disappointed that they allowed more line breaks (4) and missed 33 tackles. Still sitting 5th on the competition ladder, they will want to return to winning form with a strong performance here.
Match Prediction
There is little between these two sides in most areas heading into this contest, but the performance of each team last week has heavily swayed the odds in the home teams favours ($1.35 vs $3.25). It is somewhat surprising; the talent and desperation of the Broncos makes them the form team. You cannot overlook their shortcomings though. Despite scoring more points on attack (22ppg vs Bulldogs 20ppg), their defence needs improvement (Broncos 21pgg vs Bulldogs 16ppg). The Bulldogs have managed to limit some quality attacking teams this season and their defensive structure will again be tested here.
Home ground advantage will also count for something. On top of winning 8 out of the past 10 matches against the Bulldogs, the Broncos haven’t lost to the Bulldogs at home since 2015. The Bulldogs have a 27% record at the ground with just 8 wins in 30 games (vs Broncos 59%). Then again, this is a different Bulldogs team to seasons past.
The Bulldogs will look to drag their opponents into an ‘arm wrestle’ of a match and there is a lot to like about their defensive structure too. They will have to be at their best, as the Broncos will be throwing challenges at them all night. The line is set at 9.5 points and should be used to your advantage. The Bulldogs are a capable team. While the Broncos appear stronger on paper, you can be sure that the attitude and effort of the Bulldogs will keep this game tight until the end.
Bulldogs +9.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The average total points between these two sides in the past 5 games is 40 points. The average points this season for either suggest it should be low scoring again. Mariner and Burton offer great value. They are surprisingly high odds as they’re the leading scorers for their teams and this game should see their best again.
Total Points Under 46.5
Mariner and Burton to Score
SGM Odds: $21 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
