Australian Open 2025 Preview & Betting Tips

It’s that time of year again, as the best men and women’s tennis players make their way to Melbourne Park to contest the first grand slam of the calendar year. Ace is back with his preview and best bets for the 2025 Australian Open – check them out below.

2025 Australian Open Outright Betting Tips

Men’s Draw

Men’s Quarter 1

After an utterly dominant 2024 season, Jannik Sinner is at the top of the draw and is also at the top of the market. It should have been a banner year for the Italian, though it was marred with off court dramas that will still play out after the tournament is run and won here in Melbourne. He is a short priced favourite for the quarter, and below $2.50 to win the title in a 128 man field, so he is going to be a dominant favourite in almost any match up. 

Being near Sinner in the draw is one of the worst case scenarios for a player in terms of their quarter and outright winning potential. There aren’t a lot of names in this section of the draw that are appealing as a result. The only name that jumps out for a potential quarter winner spot is Alex De Minaur, with the Aussie slated to play Sinner in a potential quarter final match, with the worst case scenario to reach that point being Van De Zandschulp, Boyer, Bergs/Cerundolo, and Khachanov/Tsitsipas. On form of all those players, De Minaur should be a strong favourite in each clash through to the quarter finals, so the near double figure price here is reasonable in quarter 1.

Men’s Quarter 2

Things get a little interesting in the second quarter, where American Taylor Fritz sits at the top of the section. Fritz put together a very solid back end to the season, making the US Open final, the Tour finals final, and winning the United Cup to start 2025. At the bottom of the section we have the favourite to win the quarter in Daniil Medvedev. The Russian is a tricky one to read at the moment, as we are all aware of just how good his best tennis can be (see last year until midway through the third set of the Australian Open final). However, Medvedev is coming into this off no tennis to start the season, having welcomed the birth of his second child a matter of days ago.

If you split this quarter down the middle, I think there is a better path for Fritz to make it through this quarter than there is for Medvedev. Fritz is likely to face Brooksby/Coric/Mpetshi Perricard/Musetti as his toughest path, whilst Medvedev has Samrej/Tien/Popyrin/Rublev or Tiafoe as his path to the quarter final. I think Fritz at longer odds looks to be the play, and I will also place a small staking on Frances Tiafoe given his ceiling and the level he *can* produce in best of 5 set tennis.

Men’s Quarter 3

Here is where things get a little bit stacked. You know Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic? Well they are both in this QUARTER. Obviously, that is where most of the attention will go in this section of the draw. 

I must say though, we do have a range of players who are going to test both Alcaraz and Djokovic. Let’s start with Novak in the top half, who may face Machac or Opelka in round 3, and Lehecka or Dimitrov in round 4. Of those names, the player that has caught my eye at odds is Jiri Lehecka, who looks to have well and truly primed himself for the Australian Open. He won the Brisbane title, and given he had some walkovers, he could have very easily gone to Adelaide, where he had a first round bye, and done some damage in that draw. Instead, he comes in fresh here, and his ceiling has the ability to match with the the top names in the draw. He is my player to watch outside of the key names. 

You could argue that Alcaraz has the softer half of the quarter, and I think that is certainly the case in my opinion, with Shevchenko/Nishioka/Thompson/Korda the toughest path to the quarters assuming Jack Draper is below 100%. I’ll take Alcaraz and Lehecka in this section.

Men’s Quarter 4

Alexander Zverev was able to lock in the number 2 spot in the ATP rankings, meaning that he has found his way as far away from Sinner in the draw as possible. Unfortunately for him, he has still ended up in the same half as Alcaraz and Djokovic, though the German would be backing himself to make a deep push here for another fortnight in Melbourne. Personally, I don’t think I want to get too involved with him in the first round or two, just to make sure he is over the arm issue that plagued him at the United Cup. He played a set against Djokovic and looked solid, however I will take a look at him on court first. It is worth noting that he very nearly lost to Klein early last Australian Open, and he does have the ability to take somewhat of a scenic route in the early rounds. Those early rounds could included match-ups with Nick Kyrgios in round 3 and Ugo Humbertor Arthur Fils in round 4, so he will need to be on his game from very early on here.

Personally, I have Zverev slated to face Tommy Paul in the quarter finals. The American’s game is incredibly well suited to the best of 5 set format, given how strong he can be on the return of serve and building pressure across the course of matches. I think this section of the quarter looks to be a little more attackable, and given the winner of this quarter is likely to face Alcaraz or Djokovic in the semi final and Sinner in the final, I will heavily weight my staking to the quarter winner over the outright.

Summary

The draw was incredibly kind to Sinner, and the market has not missed him one bit. I think his odds look about right, and I won’t be surprised to see him lifting the trophy again at the end of the fortnight. 

I am going to make some quarter bets around Alex De Minaur (Quarter 1), Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe(Quarter 2), Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka (Quarter 3) and Tommy Paul (Quarter 4). I will hold fire on Alexander Zverev initially. I’ll also take Alcaraz each way in the outright, along with Lehecka and Paul.

Men’s Quarter Winners

0.5 units Alex De Minaur 1^st Quarter Winner at $10 at Ladbrokes

0.5 units Taylor Fritz 2^nd Quarter Winner at $4.75 at Bet365

0.25 units Frances Tiafoe 2^nd Quarter Winner at $17 at Ladbrokes

0.25 units Jiri Lehecka 3^rd Quarter Winner at $26 at Bet365

1 unit Carlos Alcaraz 3^rd Quarter Winner at $2.05 at Ladbrokes

0.25 Tommy Paul 4^th Quarter Winner at $10 at Ladbrokes

Men’s Outrights

0.75 units each way Carlos Alcaraz to win Australian Open at $4.50 at Bet365

0.125 units each way Jiri Lehecka to win Australian Open at $201 at Bet365

0.125 units each way Tommy Paul to win Australian Open $101 at Ladbrokes

Women’s Draw

Women’s Quarter 1

Aryna Sabalenka is gunning for back to back to back Australian Open titles, and she again sits at the top of the draw and the top of the market. The world number 1 has been her usual dominant self, with only three losses to her name since the start of WTA Cincinnati (losses to Muchova, Rybakina and Gauff). She is a short price for a reason, however I personally do not see any value in her price in this draw, as there are some pretty talented names along the way that she will need to face.

To reach the quarter final, Sabalenka may need to beat the likes of Clara Tauson/Linda Noskova and Mirra Andreeva, two players who have a lot of weapons and on their day can stay on the baseline and at least try and go toe to toe with Sabalenka. Her quarter final also has the potential to be a replay of the 2024 final, with Qinwen Zheng also in this quarter as the number 5 seed. 

The only other name to catch my eye from a quarter betting perspective is Diana Shnaider. She made quite a leap up the rankings in 2024, and although she can be a little inconsistent and still needing to refine her game, her pure talent and ceiling in terms of her best tennis and the ability to challenge Sabalenka (which is what I am looking for here), her price seems reasonable for a small play.

Women’s Quarter 2

It is hard to look past Coco Gauff on the form that she has been able to produce in the back end of 2024 and beginning of 2025. There have certainly some question marks over the forehand and serve of Gauff breaking down at times, but I can confidently say that during the United Cup the Gauff forehand was the best it has ever looked. It’s a tricky first round for Gauff with former champ Sofia Kenin, however when you roll through the rest of the quarter, she should be a strong favourite against any opposition, and has confidence in terms of matching up with Sabalenka in a potential semi final here. Keeping it simple here.

Women’s Quarter 3

Although there are some question marks around the off-court setup of Elena Rybakina and her coaching setup, her tennis to start 2025 has been pretty solid. She looks to get a favourable draw here in the early stages, and when she is playing with good form and positive momentum, she is a hard player to stop. I am personally struggling to see a player in the first four rounds and that is going to challenge her in their current form. 

In fact, the same can be said for the bottom half of this quarter as well. This is the weakest section of the draw courtesy of Jasmine Paolini featuring as the number 4 seed. I’m going to try to not overthink this section, as Rybakina is certainly the one for me. If I had to make a case for another player, I’d have to side with Madison Keys.

Women’s Quarter 4

I am by no means the biggest fan of Iga Swiatek, however I do feel as though this draw in the early stages has been quite favourable for the world number two. Personally, I am not sure that she will see significant trouble until the semi finals looking at her draw, with the second in the quarter winner market Emma Navarroat the other end of the quarter, and in a near coin-toss first up against Peyton Stearns. You could make a case for Amanda Anisimova at her absolute best, however form and fitness issues leave too many questions for me to confidently dive into her price.

Summary

It is a bit of a funny draw this one, with a couple of quirky first rounds, but otherwise decent paths for many of the top players to make a push deep this fortnight. I think Sabalenka has the toughest first four to five opponents of the top seeds, however I will only oppose her with a small position on Diana Shnaider to win the quarter. I will be siding with Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek to win their quarters as favourites, and Gauff and Rybakina in the outright markets.

Women’s Quarter Winners

0.25 units Diana Shnaider Quarter 1 Winner at $19 at Ladbrokes

1 unit Coco Gauff Quarter 2 Winner at $2.10 at Ladbrokes

1 unit Elena Rybakina Quarter 3 Winner at $2.40 at Ladbrokes

1 unit Iga Swiatek Quarter 4 Winner at $2.05 at Bet365

Women’s Outrights

0.75 units Coco Gauff to win Australian Open at $5 at Ladbrokes

0.5 units Elena Rybakina to win Australian Open at $10 at Ladbrokes