Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Ascot on Saturday, November 17th.
We’ve got a terrific day of racing as we head toward the Masters carnival, where we will have three straight weeks of Group 1 racing. The track is a Good 4 with the rail out 9m and the first race is set to get underway at 1.24pm WST (4.24pm AEDT).
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 Arcadia Queen
Best Value Bet: Race 3 Harry Thomas / Kaapander
RACE 1
Small field of two-year-old’s to kick off. Specialism did a good job on debut to lead all the way over 1100m and that race experience will hold her in good stead. She deserves favouritism for this and if she finds the front comfortably she will likely win again. Stablemate Gunnedoo ran 2nd to Specialism in her first trial and then trialled well again over 1000m three weeks ago. She’s drawn the inside barrier and probably box seats behind the stablemate and I won’t be letting her go around at $10 without something on. Jevelation has trialled well for the Taylor/Brown combination, winning by 5L over 850m last week. Obvious claims.
RACE 2
Arcadia Prince looks the obvious choice on paper here despite going down as the short-priced favourite last start. He didn’t lose too many admirers on that occasion but his racing pattern sometimes means he’s left with plenty to do and that was the case. Pike suspended so Chris Parnham picks up the ride, which is actually somewhat of a positive jockey change. The only little query would be the fact he’s had two starts when third up and hasn’t placed in either of them. His price is fairly prohibitive at $1.65 as well but he’s the one they’ll have to hold out. Mad Brad could be a value option at each way odds. We can tie him in through his form behind Jeraft. Jeraft beat Arcadia Prince by 1.5L last start and beat Mad Brad by 0.75L last month. Had no luck behind Freo last start when planted three-wide without cover but much better drawn in barrier 2 today and can definitely run a place at the very least. Broker resumes from a spell and is undefeated at the track and distance, while Middle Earth also resumes and has a good first up record so should be included at $14.
Value: Mad Brad $8.50 BetEasy
RACE 3
M’Lady has won two of her three starts in WA, including a solid win over the 1000m last time out. Pike is replaced by Glenn Smith here and from barrier 1 he should find the box seat. Provided the gaps come, she’s the one to beat. There’s two at big odds which I think can definitely go close. Harry Thomas has never finished outside the top two from three first up runs and although he’s never won at the track from nine starts, he has placed here when fresh before. He should burst across from the wide gate to hopefully lead and he’ll give a good sight at $19. Kaapander was beaten 2L by M’Lady first up and didn’t get a whole lot of luck in the process. Is a winner over this track and distance previously and from the good draw just needs some luck to go his way. Chris Parnham jumps off impressive last-start winner Alta Sull’amore to ride Truly Belong for Bob Peters.
Value: Harry Thomas $19 / Kaapander $15
RACE 4
Lady Cosmology and Flirtini dominated the race from the front last start in the Burgess Queen, with Arcadia Queen left with too much to do form the back of the field. It looks a similar story here with the two Simon Miller runners likely to be the frontrunners once again, but the difference today is Arcadia Queen should be closer on the turn given the field is only made up of eight runners as opposed to 12 last start. The step up to 1600m is undoubtedly going to suit Arcadia Queen so provided she’s within striking distance on the turn, I expect her to go straight past them today.
RACE 5
Could end up with egg on my face but Dainty Tess is a moral if she reproduces her first two runs this campaign. She’s motored home over the top of them in both of those races and she’s finished in the top two in four of her five starts when third up from a spell. She’s flying and with even luck is definitely the one to beat. Lockroy gets a 3.5kg weight swing on her from last start which gives him some claims. He’s only been beaten half-a-length by Dainty Tess in both runs this campaign. Belter resumes from a spell and has a very good first up record. He finished last prep with three wins from his final four races and has trialled well leading into today. He looks the biggest danger to the favourite. Scales Of Justice drops back from 1400m to 1100m before going back up to 1600m next week for the Railway. Very odd prep for a horse coming off a year-long spell and although he’s undefeated at this distance, is he really going that well?
RACE 6
Very deep race and there’s a couple of runners at huge odds that could win this. The favourite Royal Command split Freo and Mad Brad last start and looks very well placed back to restricted one-metro-win grade. Hasn’t won in over a year now but does look suited today. Spillnova should go forward today rather than back as he did with the change of tactics last start. If he finds the front and controls the race he’ll be hard to peg back. Rising Sea had no luck first up and has a terrific second up record so the $13 still available looks a decent each way price. Kimbo’s Girl jumps out of the ground third up and was backed in from huge odds this time last prep when she won over this track and distance. Expect her to be fired out of the gate. Fingermark has had absolutely no luck whatsoever in two runs back from a spell. Steve Parnham has butchered him on both occasions and if it were any other jockey on today I’d have a bit more confidence. Might have to stick with him at the $26 odds until I at least see him given a chance. Something small on Rising Sea, Kimbo’s Girl and Fingermark.
Value: Kimbo's Girl $41 / Fingermark $26
RACE 7
WA Derby winner Action is going to be giving them all a start here but he might give them all a beating too. He ran well for 2nd behind star stablemate Galaxy Star last start and beat the rest of the field comfortably. The obvious query is whether he’s just looking for further now and he might even continue to drift because of that, especially if they’re struggling to make ground. Freo was very impressive last start, winning by 3.75L over Royal Command and Mad Brad. Prior to that he was beaten 1L by Jeraft, who has since gone on to win another two races. He’s likely to be back in the field as well despite drawing well in barrier 4. That leaves it open for something up on the speed to run a cheeky race. Cappo D’Oro, Nelson’s Flight and Oliver’s Travels are all capable.
RACE 8
I usually hate backing horses dropping back in distance, such as 2200m back to 1800m, but there is an incredible amount of deadwood lining up here and The Big Show is a horse on the up, so he can go on with his last-start win today. The form from his past two starts has actually proven to be reasonably strong and with 54kg on his back and the good draw, he should be tough to run down. Dark Prospect probably brings a little bit stronger form to the race and he's also dropping back from 2200m to 1800m. He's on the one-week back-up but I just can't back anything at $5.00 with Steve Parnham on at the moment. Outside of those, the other favoured runners all have knocks. Press The Petal hasn't placed in any of its four starts when third up. American Joy hasn't won in a year and Beaucount has only placed in one of his six starts at the track. I wouldn't put it past Mr Alby or My Fair Beauty to turn up at big odds again.
