Ascot Racing Tips for Saturday December 31st

The Perth Racing Carnival wraps up with the Group 2 Perth Cup meeting on Saturday, and we have a fantastic card lined up to conclude our coverage. There are 9 races in total, with the Cup supported by the Group 3 La Trice Classic and the Listed Summer Scorcher.

We have betting tips for all 9 races as well as a detailed look at the Cup.

Ascot Racing Tips - December 31st 2016

Race 1

I have no idea how they opened MOSSERATTI at $3 but it's been backed in to its right price now at $2.10 best. I honestly think he's more of a $1.70-$1.80 chance and looks a fairly safe way to get the day started. Recent form very good in this grade, down in weight after the claim and draws much better than last start in barrier 5 today. Would only need to reproduce recent efforts to win this with most other horses stepping up in grade. Clear top pick.

Tip: Mosseratti (Best Bet)

Race 2

Good race with a number of winning hopes here. BRISANTO was fair first up from a spell where she was beaten 2 lengths by a handy type. Her form early on last prep was exceptional and she's placed at both previous 2nd up runs so with improvement expected, and a better draw in barrier 5 today, I think she can win. Her form at the track and distance is very good and it was only last prep that she was mixing it with Vega Magic, so with a slightly quieter ride and still on the minimum weight, she should get her chance to win again. Run Liam Run put in a great effort first up when 2nd to Tommy Who - the horse that finished 3rd has since come out and won - so down in weight and with barrier 1 he looks to be a big danger. Dendee, Yoshi Noxious and Dezzie's Dream all hold claims.

Tip: Brisanto

Race 3

Interesting race. GATTING looks hardest to beat given his fantastic form this prep - he's won three of his four races and placed in the other. He showed a terrific turn of foot to win over 1500m last weekend and today draws much better and gets Pike back on board, so he ticks plenty of boxes. I must admit I have a slight query over the fact he drops back from 1500m to 1200m on the one week backup, but he did win over 1100m just two starts ago so he should handle it. Carocapo was very good to win on debut in town. Expect him to lead and be hard to run down, while Veuve De Vega, Spangled Impact and Stored Energy could all win without surprising.

Tip: Gatting

Race 4

Bob Peters once again holds all the aces here and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him land the first 4. Cosmic Storm has done nothing to suggest she won't win again here after she came from well back in the field to win the Starstruck Classic last start. She was aided by a 10/10 ride from Willie Pike and if she wasn't caught wide two starts back it is fair to assume she'd be undefeated this prep. In saying that, her stablemate SILVERSTREAM has returned to her best form in her last two starts and was only a head away in 2nd last start. She had to thread her way through a bit of traffic in the straight and although she's untried at this distance, I think she can actually beat Cosmic Storm today. The main reason I think that is because of the barrier draws. Cosmic Storm is likely to be strung up in traffic from barrier 1 as she typically gets back, and she'll need both plenty of luck and another pearler from Pike to have an uninterrupted run. Meanwhile, from barrier 4 Silverstream can probably sit one off the rail in midfield and may be able to get first run in the straight, which could be enough to hold off Cosmic Storm. Cosmic Storm is one of my favourite horses over here, but I think the $4.40 for Silverstream is worth taking today.

Tip: Silverstream

Race 5

Another nice race that looks a race in three. I think CRONKITE can turn the tables on Pounamu here. We backed Pounamu last start and he got the money but he rises 2kg in the weights today and the big difference is Cronkite drawing barrier 3. He simply got way too far back last start from the wide gate before running home well into 3rd. From barrier 3 Pike should be able to find a much closer spot and with the weight swing I think he could get the better of the the grey. Settlers Creek split them last start and continues to race in great form, he will be there once again at the finish and I don't expect there to be much between the three of them. Outlaw Pete has had more than enough chances with me and is sacked today (so he'll probably win), while Special Delivery is the other to keep safe.

Tip: Cronkite

Race 6

Probably the most competitive race of the day, and I count 7 horses that could win this. The race should be run at a good tempo given the likes of Agachar Cruz, Jezpark, Three Votes and Just Act Natural are all involved, which could set it up for something like CUANZO to come from off the speed. This horse resumed with a big run at Bunbury in what was a significantly easier race, but his 2nd up record is outstanding and so too is his record over track and distance. From barrier 2 with 54.5kg he looms as a decent each way chance at $8 given the predicted tempo. Of the on-pacers I'd be giving JUST ACT NATURAL another chance after disappointing first up. He may be able to take a sit today but he has certainly got the talent to win this, while Presentatie resumes from a spell and is worth keeping safe. She's never run over 1100m but she'll be coming from back in the field and is another that has the ability. Three Votes has trialled up superbly for his return and I expect him to lead but the last 100m might just find him out here if the tempo is hot. Agachar Cruz, Viking Forest and Shady Gray are all winning hopes.

Tip: Cuanzo EW

Race 7

Volkoff was a tremendous winner last start over 1100m where he won by 2 lengths, which followed a string of good performances in harder races over the carnival. This is a tougher race than what he faced last time but down on the minimum weight he should get his chance to win again. I'll be backing two at longer prices, however, which are KING'S TROOP and NORTH RIDGE. King's Troop makes his WA debut for the Gangemi stable (along with Durendal) after 10 starts in Sydney for Gerald Ryan. If you look back through his form, it makes him very tough to beat here. At his 3rd start he ran 2nd to Japonisme in the San Domenico Stakes, and just two starts ago ran 2nd to Spieth who should have been a Group 1 winner at his next start! Drawn well, down in the weights and has won a trial leading into this - if he is at his best he'll win and $6 is a good price to find out. NORTH RIDGE catches the eye with William Pike booked to ride for Fred Kersley - the first time they have linked up this season. This horse should have finished much closer to Volkoff first up after being held up badly at the top of the straight. I think he's come back in good order and at $9 is worth having something on.

Tip: King's Troop / North Ridge (Best Value)

Race 8

We have a fascinating Cup in front of us with Perfect Reflection trying to emulate what Delicacy did last year and carry 59kg to win, but as good as she is, I don't think that will be happening and I'll be avoiding her at all costs today. I just think the weight will be too much for her today, and with the weight swing she has to concede to others, she faces an almighty task to win. Kia Ora Koutou comes up favourite after outstaying his rivals to win over 2200m last start. The key to that win was his jockey making a mid-race move due to the slack tempo which allowed him to really make it a staying test. The win was full of merit but I think he's under the odds at $3.30 and I'll be backing him as a saver bet only, at best. I actually think he wants further than this, and if it comes down to a sprint, I think there's others that have a sharper turn of foot. 

One of those is STAR EXHIBIT, and I can't get enough of this horse here. It helps that I got him at $15 before his last start win, but I just think he is perfectly placed to win today and the $7.50 is still a good price given my doubts about the first two. He gave them all a start and all a beating in the ATA Stakes last week, and his turn of foot to win was quite impressive. Drops to the minimum weight here and if he's close enough on the turn, I think he'll win. 

Respondent finished 2nd to Star Exhibit last start and gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour here, so despite the wide barrier he could be competitive again at decent odds. Fathoms Of Gold nearly pulled off an astonishing front running performance when 2nd to Perfect Reflection last start. They'll adopt similar tactics and with an 8kg weight swing today he could certainly run another big race. Tradesman is another that gets an 8kg weight swing on Perfect Reflection and he simply got way too far back last start, but he still ran on stylishly to finish 2.25L away in 5th. He draws poorly once again which could bring him undone, but he's one to keep safe, and the same can be said for Zarantz who also gets the 8kg swing on Perfect Reflection, but his record at the track is enough to put me off.

I'll be sticking with Star Exhibit here who I think if flying and represents great value given the doubts over the top two in the market.

Tip: Star Exhibit

Race 9

Three that interest me here. ROMELU is the first of those and is the $4.25 favourite due to the Pike/Peters factor but it's noticeable that he jumps off Point to ride this horse first up from a spell today. He trialled her a couple of weeks back and she did run 2nd first up last prep over 1600m so she looks primed to run a big race here. Draws well and weighted to win so she goes on top. LIBERTY RISE won well first up at Northam before running respectably in Listed company last start behind Cosmic Storm, which is good form for a race like this. She can run well from the good gate, while the value in the race could be LUKE'S GOLD. This horse has been luckless in a few of his recent runs, including last week when he never saw daylight behind Pinzu. The wide barrier may afford him his chance to run on today, though the jockey booking does concern me. Worth having something on at $13. 

Tip: Romelu / Luke's Gold EW