We continue our lead up to the Perth Cup at Ascot this week with another 8 race card, featuring the Listed ATA Stakes over 2200m.
Last week we managed to find 5 of the 8 winners including Already Famous at $31 so lets hope we can continue our good form in the West.
Ascot Betting Tips - December 24th 2016
Race 1
Very tough race with 8 first starters and 4 of those having only trialled over 400m. I thought VERY ANGRY GIRL could run well on debut here on the back of two good trials, the latest of which was a win over 950m. Her times for the two trials are good compared to the trial times of the other horses in the field, will just need luck from the wide gate. STREET FURY is one of three horses entered for trainer Ben Pearce and the trial win was by 4 lengths over 400m so she clearly has speed. Draws well but the concern is the jockey on board. CARESS YOUR SOUL is one of the other two entered for Ben Pearce and won a trial reasonably well, albeit in moderate time. With Noske on board from a good draw she should go well.
Not overly keen to get involved here but those three should give us a decent sight.
Tip: Very Angry Girl
Race 2
Hard to knock Astronomite but I'm giving one absolute final chance to OUTLAW PETE here who just wasn't given any chance last start after settling back a long last. At the start of the prep he finished within a length of Tradesman and Scales Of Justice, then was blocked the entire straight behind Pounamu before running 2nd to Star Exhibit. Barrier 1 should give him every chance to win today. The value in the race is YOUNG LIONEL who has a good record over the track and distance and the drop back to 1600m from 2100m should see him competitive here. The last time he ran over 1600m he finished 2nd to Chocolate Holic.
Tip: Outlaw Pete / Young Lionel E/W
Race 3
Put a line through the run of PINZU last start after he was caught wide the entire trip. He was absolutely hammered in betting that day and if you judge him off his previous two runs then he deserves to start favourite in this. Two at bigger odds that appeal as the value are DANISH DELIGHT and UPTOWN FUNK. Danish Delight is first up from a long spell but does have a good fresh record and has only ever missed a place once at this track. He beat the likes of Socially Unique and Pounamu last prep which is very good form for this. Uptown Funk ran a blinder first up but was flat last start. He's won 3rd up before and the form from his two races so far this prep is strong.
Tip: Pinzu / Danish Delight E/W
Race 4
Tough race. LORD LUDLOW has to carry all the weight but it was a very good effort to win last start and the rise in trip will only help him. The sticky draw is some concern but he's in terrific form and this race has a bit of deadwood in it so the $8 looks appealing. PRECIOUS MEMORIES has been backed early and understandably with good form behind the likes of Caipirinhia and Lusaha. From the good draw she should be right in the finish.
Tip: Lord Ludlow E/W
Race 5
DAINTY TESS was our best bet last start before just going down but today she is even better suited and I'm happy to label this the best bet in Australia for the whole day. I can't believe she went up $3.30 and the price is still good at $2.20, I think she starts odds on. With the claim she gets in very well again and gets a considerable weight swing on some of these. Drop back from 1200m to 1000m is good and she should win.
Tip: Dainty Tess (best bet)
Race 6
I think FIRST AFFAIR can continue his good form and make up for the narrow defeat last start. He led and pulled very hard throughout the race before fighting on really gamely in the straight to go down by half a length. The blinkers come off here and with the good draw and the claim he should be very hard to get past again. HAY MAGIC was well backed in the same race as First Affair and ended up running 3rd. It was a tremendous run so he can definitely go close here. Plenty of chances outside of those two in a very competitive race.
Tip: First Affair
Race 7
This is the final lead up race for the Perth Cup and we should have a solid tempo set with Kirov Boy in the field.
STAR EXHIBIT looks the one to be on here and I would suggest having something on him at $15 in the Perth Cup. He was well backed last start before running 2nd to Kia Ora Koutou who is now the $3 favourite for the Perth Cup. He stepped up from 1600m to 2200m on that occasion, so with the run under the belt he should improve at this distance once again. Stays at a similar weight so realistically he should be winning this. With just 53kg in the Cup he will go close.
Dark Alert is the other Peters horse in the field but he ran according to his market drift last start and the stablemate looks the better of the two. Dark Musket and Bedamijo others to consider.
Tip: Star Exhibit
Race 8
Taking on the favourite Celebrity Dream here with DISCO METAL who has returned this prep with two wins from two starts. His last win was against a handy field in Saturday grade and there's no reason to jump off him here. Key To Fame looks a danger after returning with a good win in Wednesday grade first up from a spell. He was mixing it with Scales Of Justice last prep which obviously reads very well now. The value in the race could be MY GREEK BOY who started last prep with two wins and his recent trial suggests he is back in good order.
Tip: Disco Metal / My Greek Boy E/W (best value)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
