Ascot Preview & Betting Tips for Saturday, October 21st

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for opening day at Ascot in Perth on Saturday, October 21^st.

We have an eight-race card to kick off the carnival, with the Group 3 Northerly Stakes headlining proceedings. The track has had the last 6 months off so it’s hard to know if any bias will exist, but hopefully every horse gets their chance.

In Episode 5 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick, Caulfield and Ascot and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 21st! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!  

We have betting tips and comments for every race from Ascot on the card below. You can also check out our Caulfield Preview & Betting Tips here for Caulfield Cup Day and our Randwick Preview & Betting Tips here!

ASCOT RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 3 Necklet

Best Value: Race 1 Chase The Ace

Race 1

AGENT PIPPA trialled exceptionally leading into her debut here. She jumped straight to the front in a small field and went to the line untouched to win in convincing fashion. Sure to be a big show here from the good gate but she comes up short enough. CAROLINA REAPER was another that impressed at the trials, showing great speed over 400m at Belmont. He really wanted to go on with the job after crossing the line, and continued to speed off for a few hundred meters. Looks a very quick horse that should go forward from barrier 8 and represents a bit of value at $9. The same can be said about William Pike’s ride, CHASING THE ACE, who was a bit more professional when running 2^nd behind ORASKY in her latest trial. Orasky was under very hard riding, with Chasing The Ace going noticeably better, so I’d expect her to measure right up here and I’ve got her on top at $7. Backing both Chasing The Ace and Carolina Reaper here, with a saver on the favourite Agent Pippa.

TIP: Chasing The Ace (Best Value) / Carolina Reaper EW

Race 2

Competitive little race but I’ve got the favourite PINZU on top here. Just wasn’t able to wind up last start when he was blocked coming around the turn and only got out with less than 200m to go. He’ll settle back in the field again today and will hopefully find room a bit earlier, which should allow him to bounce back to winning form. POINT gets William Pike booked to ride today and looks ready to win third up from a spell. His record third up is outstanding and he has a good record at this track and distance. Pinzu had his measure last start, beating him by 2.75L over 1400m, and even gets in 1kg better at the weights today, but the booking of Pike and the step up to 1600m can see him go close today. PUSHIN’ SHAPES finished ahead of Pinzu last start after box seating; he will box seat again from barrier 1 today and he’s won his only start over the track and distance so expect another good showing. ALREADY FAMOUS and BARZINHO next best.

TIP: Pinzu

Race 3

Pretty keen to be with the favourite NECKLET here who comes off a big showing on debut when running 2^nd to Mikimoto (the $1.40 favourite on the day), beaten 0.3L. There was a 5L gap back to 3^rd, which is generally a good indicator that the first two can be followed. Since that run she’s had a trial which she won very stylishly, and with just 51kg on her back she should be motoring home. I’ll be taking on ARCADIA PRINCE who won well first up at York as the $1.20 favourite but will have to settle well back in the field from barrier 9. Probably looking for the 1400m at this stage so that’s a positive; he should be competitive but I’d rather have my chips on Necklet. REYKJAVIK finished 2^nd to the unbeaten Rockon Tommy last start and should run well again. SALUBRIOUS returns to the track as a three-year-old after a successful campaign last time in work. That was winter form so he’ll likely have to improve against some good horses engaged here. PRIVATE DANCER could be the value. Ridden forward last start and sat three-wide but still won by more than 3L.

TIP: Necklet (Best Bet)

Race 4

STATE SOLIITOR has seven wins from 10 starts in his career but I think he comes up very short here at $1.85. He was only beaten 1L in last year’s Winterbottom Stakes, which is obviously the best form in this race by a long way, but he’s first up here over a distance he’s never raced at and one which I think is short of his best. I think he’s a 1200m horse, possibly even further, so the 1100m here could find him out, especially if they run slowly. That’s exactly what happened last prep over 1200m first up when he wound up slowly to finish 4^th. Happy to take him on today at the price. I’ll be sticking with CAIPIRINHA who was disappointing first up under a big weight at Belmont. Gets back to her favoured track at Ascot today and there doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed in the race so expect her to go straight to the front and be hard to run down. She’s back down to 56kg and has a run under her belt so she might be able to hold off State Solicitor today. I’ll also be backing DAINTY TESS who was huge last start after bombing the start. They’ll ride her positive from the good gate today and she will be right there at the finish.

TIP: Caipirinha

Race 5

With the favourite STAGEMAN here who comes off a dominant win in midweek maiden grade at Belmont. This is a decent step up in class but he won that race with authority and was stretching clear on the line. They’ll go back from the wide draw here and he’ll be motoring home late. UNDISCLOSED is the other I’ll be backing at $8.50. Was disappointing in his first two runs back this prep but looked to bounce back last start when desperately unlucky. He settled well off the pace and was held up in the straight until it was all too late. Hit the line nicely and from the good draw he can go close to winning this. REMEMBER BERLIN resumes from a spell. He hasn’t finished outside the top two in his last six runs, and he’s run 2^nd on all three occasions when first up. Last prep the horse that beat him first up was Quilista who has since won in Melboune. Won his only start over track and distance and if he gets a good enough run from barrier 9 he’ll be right there in the finish.

TIP: Stageman / Undisclosed EW

Race 6

Got this clearly between TOUCH OF SILVER and OLIVER’S TRAVELS. Touch Of Silver has won five from seven, four of which have come at this track. He’s undefeated over this track and distance and his trial leading into this really caught the eye. He travelled wide and finished on the heels of State Solicitor and Cosmic Storm – two very good horses that are much better than what he faces here. With the 3kg claim for Fred Kersley he’s very well weighted today and if he gets a good ride he will be right there at the finish. Oliver’s Travels put two wins together before a luckless 3^rd last start. He was caught three-wide the trip on speed and still fought on to be beaten 0.75L. The horse is flying and drops from 59kg to 54kg today with Chris Parnham taking the ride. Draws well in barrier 4 and can bounce back. CASH ON CALL and LORENTINIO next best.

TIP: Touch Of Silver

Race 7

Cracking field for the Northerly Stakes. Interestingly, MAN BOOKER wore bar plates first up and drifted from $3 out to $6 before running terribly. The bar plates come off today so that suggests his feet are in a bit better shape and if he were to rediscover his best form he would be a huge chance in this at $41. That’s a big IF though. GATTING is a very good horse but his best has come over longer and I think he’s way under the odds at $9.50 here. DISPOSITION won well first up in the Hannans Handicap in Kalgoorlie but this is a much stiffer test against better opposition. Again, his best form would win this but his best form looks behind him. Pike jumps off him to ride the stablemate which is a telling factor. WHISPERING BROOK showed a glimpse of her best form last start, finishing 3^rd over 1200m. The step up to 1400m suits her third up here. She started close enough to favourite for the Thousand Guineas last year so she’s another that would give this a real shake on her best form. They will likely lead from the barrier. GREAT SHOT was disappointing first up but probably better suited up to 1400m now with that run under his belt. Faces a tough task from the draw and may have to sit outside the leader. METEOROID was a slightly surprising winner of the Birthday Stakes last start but she enjoyed the run of the race on that occasion and won’t get that here. This is a tougher field and happy to risk her today. SALORSCI comes up favourite and has won five of his six starts. Resumed with a solid enough win at Belmont but this is undoubtedly his toughest test to date and I’d have to risk him at the price against some of the other horses engaged here. Draws well and will enjoy a great run, so perhaps a saver bet on him. The two I want to be on are COSMIC STORM and SILVERSTREAM. Pike jumps on Cosmic Storm which is a strong lead. She produced an enormous win first up last prep over 1200m, storming home from well back in the field to get up on the line. She’s trialled very well leading into today and expect her to be charging home again. We were on Silverstream first up in the Birthday Stakes at $9 when she came from last to be beaten by a pimple on the line. If last prep is anything to go by the step up in distance here is only a good thing and she stays on the minimum weight, so I’d expect her to be going very close today. We’re getting $5 for Cosmic Storm and $8.50 for Silverstream, backing both.

TIP: Cosmic Storm / Silverstream EW

Race 8

Competitive race to finish off. I think the barrier draws will have a big part to play here because TIME TO HUNT draws barrier 4, which should allow it to get the run of the race just ahead of midfield. She was poor first up but the soft track may have had a part to play in that, and she bounced back to form last start with a narrow 2^nd placing to Taxadermy, who has won his last three straight. Time To Hunt’s only start at Ascot was a good win in a big field so with the run of the race today, she should give this a real shake. GOLGATHA will lead from barrier 8 and he just continues to run well. Has a poor record at Ascot but he’s flying this prep and the drop back from 2000m to 1800m is a good thing. If the track is favouring frontrunners then this is the horse to be on at decent odds. JUST LIKE FIRE won brilliantly first up but was underwhelming last start in a performance that probably suggests she is looking for this step up in trip. Rises from 1400m to 1800m now but she may get over even further. She will settle a long way back from the barrier and will have to be at her best to run them down. KIA RA STAR is a really progressive stayer. Likewise, he will have to get a long way back from barrier 12 which means he’ll have a decent task on his hands to round them up.

TIP: Time To Hunt / Golgatha EW