The final round of an epic home & away season is here, with just one game separating seventh from thirteenth, the final three spots in the eight are up for grabs! We’ve got you covered with a huge preview for Round 10!
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AFLW 2023 Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast vs Essendon
Great Barrier Reef Arena, Friday 7:45pm AEDT
Round 10 kicks off in Mackay with the fifth placed Bombers travelling north to take on the sixth placed Suns. Essendon’s win over Carlton last week essentially secured their place in the finals series, and Brisbane’s shock loss against St Kilda means the Bombers can finish in the top four if they win on Friday night. Gold Coast’s destiny is in their own hands after a 31 point win over the Giants in Round 9, with the Suns on 22 points, meaning a win will guarantee an appearance in the finals. Gold Coast are only half a game ahead of ninth and tenth place, meaning a loss could see the Suns miss out on the finals if results don’t go their way.
The Bombers bounced back with a dominant performance against Carlton, holding the Blues scoreless in the first half as they put the result beyond doubt. Stephanie Alexander and Bonnie Toogood combined for five goals as Essendon converted their dominance in general play onto the scoreboard, unlike in Round 8. Essendon produced 16 scoring shots from 31 inside 50’s, and if their potent forward line can continue to produce this sort of efficiency, it’s going to be a tough ask for Gold Coast to compete with Essendon’s firepower inside 50.
There’s plenty on the line in this clash with top four and finals positions at stake for both clubs. The Bombers are one of the hottest teams in the competition over the last month having one three of their last four games. Although they’re in sixth spot on the ladder, the Suns haven’t beaten a team currently inside the top eight. Gold Coast don’t have a great record in Mackay, with just one win from their three games at Great Barrier Reef Arena. Although the Bombers are outsiders in this clash, with a chance to finish inside the top four, expect the inform Bombers to make it four wins from their last five games.
Essendon to Win
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Brisbane vs Melbourne
Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday 7:05pm AEDT
It’s a top four clash on Saturday night football as the Lions host the Demons in Ipswich. Melbourne are in prime position to be minor premiers for the first time after finishing second in the last two seasons. Brisbane’s top four hopes are hanging by a thread after a shock loss against St Kilda, with Essendon or the Gold Coast a chance to snatch fourth spot if the Lions lose on Saturday night. Melbourne continued their charge to the finals with a convincing 33 point victory over Fremantle, as the Dees sit 64% clear of the Crows who are second on the ladder.
Brisbane trailed for the entirety of the game, and were beaten in the key factors by a desperate St Kilda outfit recording -12 clearances, -11 inside 50’s and -7 contested possessions. It was a performance reflective of the Lions up and down season, in which they have beaten top four sides Adelaide and North Melbourne, but have lost to Richmond, St Kilda and Collingwood who are all outside of the top eight. Melbourne have been ruthless inside forward 50, ranking as the number one scoring team in the competition this season averaging 69 points per game.
Melbourne have been a model of consistency this season, scoring at least ten goals in six of their nine games and scoring at least five goals in every game this season. The Demons eight wins have come by an average winning margin of 49 points, and are unbeaten away from home in 2023. Although the Lions have shown their best is as good as any team in the competition, they don’t have the depth and consistency to match the all conquering Demons. Expect another ruthless performance from the reigning premiers as they look to secure the minor premiership.
Melbourne -14.5
$1.87 (2 Units)
Carlton vs St Kilda
Ikon Park, Sunday 1:05pm AEDT
Sunday afternoon football kicks off with a massive clash as the Saints and Blues look to launch themselves into the top eight on the final day of the season. St Kilda’s upset win over Brisbane has the Saints only outside of the eight on percentage, while Carlton are a game and percentage outside of the top eight, needing everything to go right to sneak into the top eight. The Blues have lost three games in a row, after looking a near certainty to play finals a month ago.
St Kilda have won four of their last five games with their 21 point win over the Lions arguably the best in the history of the club. The Saints were on top from start to finish and dominated the key statistical categories, winning the clearance battle by 12, inside 50’s by 11 and contested possessions by 7. Carlton were near polar opposite against Essendon, failing to score in the first half as their season slipped away from them. The Blues defence has been a major concern, as they conceded scores from more than 50% of inside 50’s that the Bombers had.
The Saints are flying to finish the season, and will likely need to make up the 4.8% gap on percentage that separates themselves from eighth placed Sydney, given the Swans have a very winnable game against Fremantle this weekend. St Kilda produced their highest score of the season against Brisbane last week, and they’re going to go all guns blazing against a Carlton defence that has leaked scores across the last fortnight, as they search for a maiden finals appearance.
St Kilda -6.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
More Round 10 Tips
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne - VU Whitten Oval, Saturday 1:05pm AEDT
North Melbourne will be looking to secure their spot in the top four, when they face likely wooden spooners in the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs finally got their first win of the season with a victory over West Coast. Although the win avoided a winless season, the Bulldogs will be in for a reality check against the Kangaroos, with North Melbourne's six wins this season coming by an average winning margin of 41 points.
Tip: North Melbourne -46.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide vs GWS - Alberton Oval, Saturday 3:05pm AEDT
Port Adelaide and GWS finish their campaigns in the only game this weekend without any finals implications. The Power and Giants were both beaten last weekend and will be looking to finish their season on a high. With the competition’s greatest player Erin Phillips retiring, expect the Power to produce a big performance to send off the superstar with a win.
Tip: Port Adelaide, $1.72 with Ladbrokes
Geelong vs Hawthorn - GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 5:05pm AEDT
Old rivals Geelong and Hawthorn go head to head at the cattery, with the Cats needing a win to secure their place in the finals. Although the Cats have by far the best percentage of the four teams tied on 20 points, a loss for Geelong opens the door for the Saints and Pies to take their spot. After a mid season slump, Geelong have got back in form with two wins from their last three games coming by margins of 24 and 38 points.
Tip: Geelong -22.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
West Coast vs Adelaide - Mineral Resources Park, Saturday 5:05pm AEDT
Adelaide will be looking to keep their hopes of stealing the minor premiership alive when they head out west to take on the Eagles. The Crows are level on points with the Dees, but are 64% behind on percentage. Adelaide have beaten the Eagles by margins of 33 and 38 points in their two meetings, and they won’t have any issues getting past a West Coast side that lost to the previously winless Bulldogs last week. The Crows will need a slip up from the Demons, but expect a ruthless performance from the Crows as they look to finish top of the ladder.
Tip: Adelaide -48.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Collingwood vs Richmond - Victoria Park, Sunday 3:05pm AEDT
It’s last chance saloon for Collingwood and Richmond, who enter the final round of the season needing a win to have a chance of playing finals. Collingwood are in tenth, one of fourth teams between seventh and tenth tied on 20 points. The Pies will need a win against the struggling Tigers, along with losses to Sydney and St Kilda to make the eight. Although a lot will need to go right, their own game will be the easiest part of the equation with the Tigers having lost four of their last five games.
Tip: Collingwood -8.5, $1.87 with Ladbrokes
Fremantle vs Sydney - Fremantle Oval, Sunday 5:05pm AEDT
The home & away season concludes in Perth as Sydney looks to make their first finals appearance, after failing to win a game in their maiden AFLW season. The Swans upset Collingwood to jump into the top eight, with a win for Sydney likely to guarantee their ticket to the finals. Although mathematically the Dockers can make the finals, it would require a miracle scenario given they’re a game and 27% behind eighth placed Sydney. The Swans have been outstanding over the last fortnight with two massive wins, and will keep that form going against the Dockers, to secure a spot in the top eight.
Tip: Sydney, $1.78 with Ladbrokes
