Welcome to Round 12 of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season, and we get things underway at Adelaide Oval this Thursday night as the Port Adelaide host Carlton. This is a huge game to kick off the round as the Power are currently sitting third on the ladder and will be looking to charge towards a top two spot as they sit half a game behind the Bombers. Meanwhile Carlton are clinging to eighth spot, but it’s so tight that they are only one win behind the Power, so there’s a huge opportunity to rise up the ladder with a tough road win.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Thursday night main being worth $60,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $60,000+ Power vs Blues
- AFL $5,000+ Power vs Blues High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Power vs Blues Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Power vs Blues Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
Port Adelaide ($1.60) vs Carlton ($2.18)
Points: 155.5
Line: Port Adelaide -5.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Port Adelaide vs Carlton Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
22 degrees and a high chance of rain in the morning, expected to clear in the early afternoon. Keep an eye on the conditions approaching the bounce to gauge how wet the game is and select accordingly if you expect it to impact the game.
Where to Attack?
This is one of the tougher daily fantasy matchups that you will find this season. Both sides are extremely stingy when it comes to conceding fantasy points, leaving little obvious areas for targeting. Carlton have been giving up points to inside midfielders this year at over 3 points per game above league average over the last ten matches, so loading up on the Port Adelaide inside brigade stands out.
I would be avoiding the Port Adelaide wings and half backs as the Blues have strangled their opponents through this position, as they like to rack up all the uncontested ball for themselves. Meanwhile, somewhat surprisingly, the Power defence has cut off their opposition forwards significantly this season giving up around 6 points per game below league average to both key and general forwards over the last 10 games.
Game Script – Carlton backs, Port Adelaide midfielders and forwards
VALUE PLAYS
Todd Marshall ($8,770) as noted above with the Power favourites and how strong their defence has been, I like going to the Port forwards as the rostered play on this single game slate. There is plenty of value around across their talls with all of them being in the same price and the Blues giving up slightly above average to key forwards. Marshall is in top form coming off a 100+ point game last week against much easier competition.
Lachlan Cowan ($7,590) looks a solid value option across the back line as he shown a relatively consistent floor with a few 50 point games before flashing a ceiling of 91 last week in a game where Carlton dominated uncontested possession. I would be looking to link Cowan up with other Blues backs, such as Mitch McGovern ($10,130) or even spending right up to the premium spot of Nic Newman ($15,070) as a pairing.
An alternate value option to Cowan would be Alex Cincotta ($6,000) who is completely bargain basement and has to be considered if he is not the sub.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Tom De Koning ($12,790) has really made the leap this season averaging 80 points per game but looking in great form when he is the sole ruck. He posted a 112 point game last week to go with scores of 88, 86 and 105 from his last six games. This matchup looks positive for De Koning as the Power have been giving up above average points to rucks this year, and Ivan Soldo in particular has been giving up some big scores in 2024.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Jason Horne-Francis ($13,340) is priced nicely at under $14k and should get every opportunity in the midfield in this game with Rozee still out of the lineup. He is averaging over 100 points across his last three games. I love pairing him up with Ollie Wines ($14,180) or Willem Drew ($12,640) to take advantage of the fact that Carlton are conceding points to inside midfielders.
Sam Walsh ($16,050) is a solid premium play for the Blues if they are to dominate uncontested possession, which I expect. He plays on both the inside and the outside and will push back to pick up possessions across half back, if that is where the Blues have it. Walsh is having a monster season with just one game under 100 points and has showed his 140+ ceiling twice already from 7 games.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
Cheat Sheet
