The stage is set for an exciting opening game of the 2023 NRL State of Origin, with Queensland and New South Wales set to lock horns once again. Below, you can find our preview and match prediction, as well as our prop markets for first try scorer, man of the match, and more. Good luck to everyone following!
2023 NRL State of Origin Game 1 Betting Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales
Wednesday 31st May, Adelaide Oval, 8:05pm (AEST)
Teams
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. David Fifita 12. Tom Gilbert 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Jai Arrow Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 19. Christian Welch
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Tevita Pangai Junior 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Junior Paulo 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Nicholas Hynes Reserves: 18. Stephen Crichton 19. Stefano Utoikamanu
Preview & Prediction
The opening game of the series heads to Adelaide for the next instalment of the greatest rugby league rivalry. The Maroons head into this game as outsiders following their upset victory in 2022, although much has changed for both sides. Each team has made choices which are at different ends of the spectrum.
The Blues have decided to recall players who were unavailable in 2022, from their successful 2021 campaign. Coach Fitler is under a lot of pressure to retain his job and he has gone with combinations over form; that isn’t to suggest those picked are underperforming but there were other candidates who can feel hard done by. The strike weapons are back on the edges and the Blues will look to get the ball to them on the edges as much as possible.
The Maroons have abandoned their famous ‘pick and stick’ policy, preferencing in-form players they are backing to ‘do the job’ when it matters most. Several players have found themselves in key positions after strong starts to the season with their club teams, rewarded for what they have produced. After causing an upset last year, you cannot doubt the approach of coach Billy Slater. Either way, both teams will be out to start the series off on the right note.
Things are tense in both camps in the lead up to this contest. Each team selection has caused intrigue as to how they will take the field. Judging each on face value, the Blues appear to have a slightly stronger team. The attacking weapons of Mitchell and Trbojevic on the edges will create plenty of defensive issues for the Maroons. It remains to be seen whether they can defend what comes their way. Fifita can often be lazy in defence and this game will be at an intensity that will test him. Tabuai-Fidow is a great player but is out of position.
The Maroons have a lot of experience to call upon in their halves and hookers, but if they are chasing points, it will become too much for them. It will be a tight contest though; the Maroons are expected to drag the Blues into an ‘arm wrestle’ with their forwards wanting to keep the game in the middle. The Blues ball movement is crucial here; their sweeping attacking plays will look to drag the game away from the middle. Much of this relies upon a fast ruck and making the most of this; Koroisau is a quality player, but one cannot help but think that Cook would’ve been better suited.
In the end, the Blues should just prevail courtesy of some exciting backline movements which are finished by world-class players.
New South Wales – 2.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
First Try Scorer
Since 2011, a forward has only scored once in the series opener (Cordner, NSW, 2016). Wingers have scored 4 times, centres 3 times (3 of the past 4 years to be exact), halves twice and a fullback once. It is a good sign for the eventual winner too, with 7 of the teams who have scored first going on to win the match.
Queensland
Cobbo is lethal in any attacking situation. He is as good in the air as he is on the ground and knows how to find his way to the line. The Maroons halves will want to attack to his edge as much as possible and with Holmes inside him, expect Cobbo to benefit from a little more attacking room. For an outsider, you will find plenty of value in David Fifita. He is a dynamic ball runner and will put himself in the right position to score points. It could just be a matter of the Maroons ball players giving him the ball with enough space to create opportunities.
Favourite: Cobbo - $11 at TAB
Outsider: Fifita - $19 at Ladbrokes
New South Wales
The Blues are not short on attacking weapons. Any player in their backline could easily salute first. The plan for this option is to expose the Maroons weaknesses in defence. Like Cobbo, JAC is a threat in the air and on the ground. Sweeping left attacking movements, started by Luai, will bring him into play. For an outsider, Tommy Turbo will look to assert his dominance on this contest in the absence of Mitchell. Tabuai-Fidow will have a difficult time of limiting his opportunities.
Favourite: Addo-Carr - $9 at TAB
Outsider: Trbojevic - $13 at Neds
Man of the Match
This is a betting market which comes with a warning; usually, the best player doesn’t always win the award and controversy reigns once it is named. This is a market which you would be encouraged to stay away from or invest no more than 0.5 units. However, we will provide an insight if you wish to have an investment.
In the 12 Game 1 Origin matches since 2011, players from the spine (1, 6, 7 or 9) have a 50% success rate; interestingly, a forward has not won this award in Game 1 since 2017 when Fifita saluted for NSW. Look at the key players for each side. There is greater value on players who may not play in the spine but will be influential to the outcome of the contest. The obvious selections are the shorter ones, with those players needing to have strong games if their teams are to win.
Queensland
Favourite: Cameron Munster - $6.50 at TAB
Outsider: Patrick Carrigan - $23 at TAB
New South Wales
Favourite: Cleary - $5.50 at Ladbrokes
Outsider: Payne Haas - $15 at Neds
Total Points/Margin
The average points scored in Game 1 Origin fixtures since 2011 is 28.3 points. They are traditionally tight, defensive orientated encounters. There has been only two times since 2011 that games were won by a 13+ margin also (2017 & 2021 – both won by NSW). This game look headed for the same outcome as each team doesn’t take the usual number of risks that would come at an NRL level. You need to factor this into your decision making prior to an investment.
Total Points: Under 36.5 - $1.90 at TAB (Use in a SGM or other sports multi)
Margin: NSW By 1 to 12 - $3 at TAB (1 Unit or use in SGM)
