Things kick off on Sunday with a battle between two sides looking to stay in the hunt of the top 8, as the Canberra Raiders host the Dragons at GIO Stadium. The Raiders are coming off an impressive win over the Broncos last week, whilst the Dragons are looking to bounce back after a last-minute loss to the Titans.
Then, to finish off round 7, the Eels take on the Bulldogs at CommBank Stadium, in a matchup between two traditional rivals that is sure to attract a huge crowd on Sunday afternoon. Below, we discuss the matchups and try and find value in the betting markets to cap off your weekend in the green.
NRL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons
GIO Stadium, Sunday 16th April, 2:00pm (AEST)
As mentioned, the Raiders had an impressive win last week over the previously undefeated Broncos, holding on for a 20-14 win. The Raiders managed the victory despite less metres, less possession, more missed tackles and despite being without Jack Wighton. The big question is whether they can back up this performance this weekend against the Dragons.
Speaking of the Dragons, they played an entertaining back-and-forth matchup with the Titans last week, with the Titans claiming victory with a 77th minute Toby Sexton try. The stats in this matchup were tight, with a late try to Ben Hunt seemingly getting the Dragons home. The missed conversion from Zac Lomax proved crucial, as the Titans scored after a Ben Hunt error to put themselves in position to take the lead, which they did as Tannah Boyd slotted the conversion.
We opened before last week’s games with the Raiders as 4.5-point favourites, and this number has been bet up to 6.5 at most books following the Raiders’ gritty performance last week against the Broncos. It’s easy to come up with this number, with the Raiders surely earning an upgrade after that performance, as well as the fact they welcome back star five eighth Jack Wighton.
I’m not convinced though, and even though I make the number Raiders -6.5, I like the Dragons to cover in this matchup. The Dragons’ market rating was terrible to start the year, with several league reporters believing the Dragons were headed for the wooden spoon. And whilst they haven’t been tremendous, with Head Coach Anthony Griffin looking like he’s a dead man walking, the Dragons have been playing at a level similar to last season. A look at statistics would also indicate that the Dragons are a better team than the Raiders, and whilst I don’t think that paints an accurate picture, I do believe the Dragons are a good enough team to keep this close.
Whilst the Raiders 1-12 is the value bet, I prefer taking the Dragons with the start, as an upset is well and truly on the cards in this matchup, as both teams struggle with consistency on both sides of the ball.
St George Illawarra Dragons (+6.5)
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs
CommBank Stadium, Sunday 16th April, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Eels would have been happy to come away with their second win of the season last week, however the standard of their performance would have Head Coach Brad Arthur concerned moving forward. After leading 22-6 after 46 minutes, the Eels allowed the Tigers right back into the contest, as the Tigers scored 3 unanswered tries to get the score back to 22-20 with 8 minutes remaining. A late try to Maika Sivo sealed it, but I’m not sure the Eels will be overly happy with their form.
Speaking of being unhappy with form, the Bulldogs will not be pleased after conceding 50 to the Rabbitohs last week. After an early Jake Averillo try had the Bulldogs up 6-0 after 5 minutes, the Rabbitohs ran in 4 straight tries before half time to lead 26-6, and they were never challenged from there, running home 50-16 winners. The Bulldogs will need to turn things around quickly to have any chance this week against the Eels.
The Bulldogs were humiliated last week, going down 50-16 to the Rabbitohs on Good Friday. The injury bug has continued to strike, with Josh Addo-Carr and Viliami Kikau set to miss extended periods of time.
This loss and the subsequent injuries have been felt in the market, with the look ahead number of Eels -5.5 blowing all the way out to Eels -9.5. And whilst like the Raiders/Dragons game I agree with the market move, I expect a bounce back here from the Bulldogs.
A look at recent history saw the last time the Bulldogs were embarrassed being round 1, as they lost 31-6 to Manly in a terrible display from a team many had high hopes for. A week later, Cameron Ciraldo had his troops back up, beating the Storm in Melbourne 26-12. Whilst I don’t expect them to come in here and spank the Eels, I do predict a bounce back.
The Eels haven’t shown the ability to blow anyone out this season, and whilst the Bulldogs are one of the easier teams the Eels have faced, I’m still not convinced the Eels’ defence is good enough to blow any team out.
With the chance that the Eels’ poor form continues, I’ll take both teams to keep this within two converted tries.
Either team by less than 12.5 points
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
