Two heavyweights take centre stage for the main event on Friday Night Football, with the South Sydney Rabbitohs hosting the Melbourne Storm. With both teams sitting at 2-2, there’s pressure on both sides to win this one, with the loser dropping to 2-3 and out of the top half of the table.
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NRL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Accor Stadium, Friday 31st March, 8:00pm (AEDT)
The Rabbitohs came into their round 4 clash with the Sea Eagles desperate for victory, after consecutive close losses to the Panthers and Roosters. And whilst their win wasn’t without some controversy, the Rabbitohs managed to sneak home in a Golden Point thriller, beating the Sea Eagles 13-12. Despite the 2-2 start, the Rabbitohs and coach Jason Demetriou have to be content with their level of play, after about as tough an opening month schedule-wise as anyone.
The Storm also headed into round 4 with a 1-2 record, after a rough loss in round 3 to the Titans. And whilst they would have been happy to get the win over the Tigers, the opening month has not been to the level the Storm have become accustomed. With halfback Jahrome Hughes set to miss another week, the Storm will have to wait another week to get their spine back together.
Before last week’s games, the Rabbitohs opened up 5.5-point favourites, and after both teams were able to win last week, the number hasn’t moved all that much, with the Rabbitohs currently sitting at 4.5-point favourites.
The last time these two teams met was round 19 last season at this very ground, with the Storm closing as 1.5-point favourites. But despite losing in most key statistical categories, the Rabbitohs managed to run out 24-12 winners, in a 5 tries to 2 performance that had the Rabbitohs faithful believing they could go all the way.
When looking into the form of both these teams and how they are shaping up statistically, they are quite even. Whilst the Storm are scoring points at a higher clip than the Rabbitohs, Souths’ defence has looked far more solid than the Storm. Despite these obvious signs, both sides have mirrored each other statistically for the most part, indicating either the Storm’s attack is more efficient than the Rabbitohs’, or the Storm have played an easier group of opponents. A quick look shows the Storm have come up against defences that have conceded the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 10th most points this season. Souths, on the other hand, have come up against some great defences this year, ranking 17th, 14th, 11th, and 6th in points conceded. This tells me the Storm have been beating up on poor defences, and the Rabbitohs have had to deal with some of the very best, which explains the point scoring differential between these sides.
My last thought on this matchup is I don’t expect a blowout. Both teams are desperate for a win, and neither team will be willing to give an inch to the other. This would indicate to me that a team to win by 1-12 is a serious consideration for this matchup. The kicker here is that games this season aren’t seeing the blowouts that we have seen the past few years. In fact, only 22% of games are being won by a margin of 13+. And whilst I hate betting against the Storm, I like what I’ve seen from the Rabbitohs this season, whereas the Storm seem to be treading water. Give me the Bunnies in a tight one.
South Sydney Rabbitohs (1-12)
$3.05 (1 Unit)
