Majority of attention on Friday will be geared towards the ‘battle of Brisbane’. Before kick-off in that game, action will begin in Melbourne as the Storm host the Tigers. Each team is desperate for very different reasons but, the Storm are only 2-points higher on the ladder than the Tigers (but are also well higher on the NRL Power Rankings ladder). With plenty to play for, this game promises to be the perfect entrée to what lies ahead.
Scooby brings you his best bets for Storm vs Tigers below!
NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers
AAMI Park, Friday 24th March, 6pm (AEDT)
The Storm suffered a rare, consecutive loss in Round 3, this time going down to the Titans 38-34. As highlighted in the NRL Power Rankings, coach Bellamy didn’t miss with his assessment of his side’s performance. They need look no further than their lack of respect for possession (63% completion rate & 17 errors) as a key indicator for their poor play. They had more line breaks, fewer missed tackles and averaged more metres per carry.
The Storm are given a gift this week of facing the Tigers to regain their confidence, a team rooted to the bottom of the competition ladder and also struggling with a lack of execution. Their most recent 26-22 loss to the Bulldogs was another indication of how far this team needs to improve. The result failed to highlight just how poor they were; they scored 3 tries in 4 minutes against a fatigued team. They were outplayed for majority of the contest; they had just 46% possession, completed at 70%, made fewer total metres/post contact metres/line breaks and missed more tackles. There are numerous fractions of the media aiming to lay blame on different parts of this organisation; it isn’t that simple given the lack of quality and cohesion they have displayed in the first 3 matches. Winning will silence the detractors but a tough battle lies ahead in a road trip south, against a club who rarely loses 3 consecutive matches.
Despite confidence in the Storm decreasing, they should win this match. The odds ($1.34 vs $3.30) suggest as much too and there are signs of desperation at the Tigers team which is named. They have reshuffled their spine to have Doueihi at fullback, Staines to the wing, Wakeham at 5/8 and Laurie starting on the bench. There is some blueprint for what they are trying to do but it is a high-risk option after 3 matches. The Storm are boosted by the return of Munster, but they have lost Hughes at halfback via suspension and his likely replacement is Jonah Pezet. He was impressive against the Titans and perhaps Munster will offer him a different level of freedom in attack. The home side also have a dominant record here (73% vs 40%), while the Tigers last defeated the Storm in Round 5, 2018 (and just 3 times in the past 10 meetings). Recent history does count for something, but it only further contributes to the choice of winning (and investment) in this match. The Tigers are outclassed; there is a chance that the reshuffle will be a catalyst for improvement, but there are too many uncertainties at this stage. Expect an improved defensive effort from the Storm after consecutive weeks of conceding 26+ points. This will limit a struggling Tigers attack and should mean the home side covers the line.
Prop Bet
SGM – Coates and Munster to Score @ $5 (1 Unit)
Storm -9.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
