Only two fixtures to focus our attention on today, with the usual third match taking place on Sunday. Regardless, it still promises to be an exciting evening of viewing for fans.
The first match heads to Townville as the Cowboys host the Titans. It was the Cowboys who were more fancied heading into the season but the Titans who are currently higher on the ladder (not the NRL Power Rankings though).
The second match heads down to Sydney where again, the more fancied team in the Rabbitohs faces an undefeated Sea Eagles team that is full of confidence.
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NRL Round 4 Saturday Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Saturday 25th March, 5:30pm (AEST)
The Cowboys started strongly against the Warriors at home, scoring inside 5 minutes; using the ball well, they looked like they were going to atone for a Round 2 loss to the Broncos. Unfortunately, they were kept scoreless from the 13th minute onwards as their opponents dominated the second half on their way to a 26-12 victory. Normally capable of generating momentum within a game, the Cowboys struggled at times on both sides of the ball. Their 75% completion rate hardly helped, lack of possession (44%), fewer total metres and post contact metres and just 1 line break highlights how poor they were with the ball. Defence was a strong point last year but even that was amiss in this game, allowing 7 line breaks and missing 33 tackles.
The Titans will enjoy this freedom to attack if it is offered again, following their high-scoring 38-34 victory over the Storm at home. They took their chances against an uncharacteristically poor Storm team. The Titans will need to improve their consistency moving forward as they only completed at 71%, had fewer metres per carry and half the amount of line breaks compared to their opponents.
The Cowboys defeated the Titans twice in 2022, by 26-points on both occasions. Home ground advantage has evaded the Cowboys to date (49% record) but in equal measure, the Titans have recorded just one win here in 4 attempts. The unpredictability of the Titans and inconsistency of the Cowboys to start the season, has led to a low level of confidence in this investment. They should cover the line on ability, but a lot can happen over 80 minutes. The loss of Drinkwater at the back has had a large impact on this squad, while several of the Cowboys forwards need to improve their contribution in attack. Providing that happens, the more fancied Titans pack may not be able to hold them, or the Cowboys gain the ascendency via their outside backs.
Prop Bet
SGM - Cowboys -7.5/Over 44.5 Points/Fedlt & Nani to Score @ $9.50 (0.5 Units)
Cowboys -6.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Accor Stadium, Saturday 25th March, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Rabbitohs have had a tough time to start the year with 3 road matches against Finals-bound opponents. Their Round 3 match saw them against bitter rivals, the Roosters, and after a strong start and a 10-nil lead, fatigue and poor execution got the better of them. A late, 78th minute try, narrowed the margin and gave them a chance of stealing a victory but it was unlikely at this point. Their problems centre around a poor completion rate (62% in this game) which is also the second worse in the competition. If they can hold onto the ball, they are a great team at build pressure. In this game they ran for more metres with fewer carries, had more post contact metres and had more line breaks (7 vs 4). It is not time to panic but this is an area they desperately need to fix.
The Sea Eagles came out of the Bye in Round 2 to capture their second win of the season last Thursday against the Eels. It was a high-scoring 34-30 result that forced the home team to display some impressive passages of play to score points. They too would likely benefit from improved execution, with a 70% completion rate and 14 errors halting their potential at times. Nevertheless, the sight of their star players controlling the match is exciting to see and they will want to build on that momentum ahead of this contest.
Recent history suggests that the Sea Eagles will have a difficult time winning; they have defeated the Rabbitohs just twice in the past 10 meetings; they have a 42% record at this ground compared with the Rabbitohs 58% record at home. The odds ($1.60 vs $2.35) are an indication of the quality of team each has faced thus far. The Rabbitohs are ‘battle hardened’ following matches against the Sharks, Panthers and Roosters, whereas the Sea Eagles (while undefeated) have only played the Bulldogs and Eels. This is a chance to prove themselves capable, but I prefer to watch them first before invest with confidence. Again, the stake in this game is lower due to the uncertainty around both sides.
Prop Bet
Rabbitohs -4.5/Thompson & Johnston to Score @ $5 (0.5 Units)
Rabbitohs 1-12
$3.10 (1 Unit)
