Two interesting matchups on Sunday, as we kick things off with the Knights in desperate need of a win, as they play host to the surging Gold Coast Titans. Then, the Sea Eagles will look to get back on track after a rough month of results, as they meet the 5th placed Sharks.
Let’s dig in and try and fill our pockets again this week.
NRL Round 11 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans
McDonald Jones Stadium, Sunday 14th May, 2:00pm (AEST)
The Knights come into this round 11 game off the bye. In their last game in round 9, they were trounced by the Eels 43-12. A trip away and some negative press followed in their week off, so it’ll be interesting to see what Knights team turns up on game day.
As for the Titans, they are coming off an impressive 26-24 victory over the Eels. Despite trailing in every key attacking statistic, the Titans managed to do more with the ball they had, with the goal kicking of Tannah Boyd eventually proving the difference.
The Titans were 1.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s games, with money since coming in on the Knights, with the home side currently sitting at 1.5-point favourites. Not sure I can agree with this move, with the Knights not winning a game for over a month, whilst the Titans have won 2 in a row against the Sea Eagles and Eels.
Both teams’ last games were against the Eels, giving us a nice point of reference as to where this number should be. The Eels closed 6.5-point favourites in both games. This would show the teams are very evenly rated by the market, so the fact the Knights are rated a small favourite makes sense in this regard. However, given the disparity in results for both teams against the Eels, it’s hard not to downgrade the Knights, and upgrade the Titans.
In terms of the total, I like the over in this spot, however there is the potential for rain in the late morning / early afternoon. So, whilst I do like the over, I can’t make it my best bet here without knowing the weather. The Titans are generally totalled in the highest games of the week, so if the weather holds, I love the over.
Alternate Bet
Over 45.5 total points - $1.90 @ Boombet (1u)
Gold Coast Titans to Win
$2.26 (1.5 Units)
Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks
4 Pines Park, Sunday 14th May, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Sea Eagles were again humbled last week, losing 32-6 to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. The Sea Eagles have now lost two in a row, and sit in 11th place. The Sea Eagles only managed to complete 65% of their sets against the Broncos, and despite this had similar statistics to the Broncos across the board. That’s a concern, with their attack without a fully fit Tom Trbojevic looking stale and slow.
The Sharks were humbled themselves last week, coming into Magic Round on a 3-game winning streak since their bye, the Sharks were never in the contest with the Dolphins, as Wayne Bennett had his troops raring to go in game number 900 for the Super Coach. The Sharks made too many errors (13) and missed too many tackles (33). I’m sure they’ll be well prepared this week to take on Manly.
The market is pretty steadfast on this game, with the Sharks opening 4.5-point favourites last week, re-opening at this number, and staying there all week. The total of 45.5 is the same, with no movement either way.
I make the Sharks a 6.5-point favourite here, and would not at all be surprised to see them lap the Sea Eagles. The Sharks currently rank 2nd in the NRL for metres gained per game, whilst the Sea Eagles concede the third most metres per game. With the loss of Jake Trbojevic in the middle, the Sharks could be too dominant in the middle for the Sea Eagles to keep pace. Whilst Daly Cherry-Evans has been doing his best to keep the Sea Eagles competitive, his forward pack is letting him down.
With the Sharks victory, I see them scoring points. They have managed to score 30+ on five occasions this season, and if they get a roll on against this weak Sea Eagles pack, they could surpass their team total of 24 in the first half.
So, I like the Sharks to cover and to score points, however I’m a little scared of the total, given the Sea Eagles have struggled scoring this season, averaging less than 20 points per game. So, Sharks team total is where I will attack.
Cronulla Sharks (team total) over 24.5
$1.99 (2 Units)
