Sunday Football sees the debut of the newest expansion franchise in the NRL, as the Dolphins take on the Sydney Roosters at Suncorp Stadium. It couldn’t have started much worse for Wayne Bennett and the Dolphins, taking on a side that many are tipping to win the Premiership this season.
Then, in the final game of round 1, the new look Wests Tigers take on the Gold Coast Titans at Leichhardt Oval. With Tim Sheens back at the helm, and favourite son Benji Marshall under his wing, the Tigers’ 2023 season is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.
Like always, Before You Bet have you covered for every NRL game this season, with previews, analysis, and most importantly best bets, to keep you one step ahead this season.
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2023 NRL Round 1: Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 5th March, 4:05pm (AEDT)
Today marks the first new team in the NRL since the 2007 season (Gold Coast Titans), with the Dolphins becoming the NRL’s 17th team for season 2023. Not a whole lot is expected of the Dolphins this season, with a team lacking any real superstars, and a spine consisting of an unproven fullback, a rookie five eighth, a journeyman halfback, and a below average hooker. Whilst they have experience, particularly in the forwards, it’s difficult to see a big season ahead for the Dolphins.
Conversely, the Roosters are the 2nd favourites with the bookies to win the Premiership this season. They’ve managed to secure the services of Brandon Smith to play hooker, the one position in their spine where they have lacked in recent seasons. They are missing Joey Manu for this clash, however I don’t see it presenting too much of an issue.
I have no doubt that Wayne Bennett will get everything he can from his squad, but at some point the talent of teams like the Roosters will prove too much. The spread is massive (17.5), and my early numbers have the Roosters covering this spread. Given there’s very little data to go on with the Dolphins, I had a look at some spreads from last season that were a similar number. With home field being somewhat nullified in this matchup (played at Suncorp), the market is suggesting the Roosters are 18 points better than the Dolphins. In round 23 last season, the Roosters closed 20.5-point favourites at home to the Tigers, so 18 points better on a neutral. As bad as the Tigers were last season, I believe the Dolphins will be worse in week 1, and the Roosters better than last year. I’ll take the Roosters to cover, but small staking to start the season.
Sydney Roosters (-17.5)
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans
Leichhardt Oval, Sunday 5th March, 6:15pm (AEDT)
This could be my favourite game of the week, and it will close out the week 1 matchups. Both teams have improved, at least on paper, during the offseason, and a top 8 spot is a real possibility for both.
If we take a look at the home team, the Tigers have been aggressive in their recruitment during the offseason, picking up 3-time grand final winning dummy half Api Koroisau, as well as grand-finalist back rower Isaiah Papali’i from the Eels. They’ve also picked up ex-Origin front rower David Klemmer from the Knights, and get young gun Shawn Blore back from a season on the sidelines due to injury. The Tigers forward pack is legit, and it this spine can click, top 6 is the ceiling for this squad.
As for the Titans, they have picked up some handy additions too, strengthening a real weakness from last season with the signing of Sam Verrills from the Roosters to play hooker. Add in the experience of Keiran Foran at five eighth, and this Titans spine is exciting. If they can manage to get the best out of David Fifita, this team will be very fun to watch moving forward.
This could go either way, and it’s reflected in the odds, with the Tigers currently 4.5-point favourites, with this number climbing from 2.5 just a few days ago. I like the Tigers at this number, but the closer it gets to 6, the more I’m inclined to let this one go. I’ve managed to find a Tigers -4, so I’ll take it. Again, small stakes this early in the season. Sit back and enjoy this one.
Wests Tigers (-4)
$1.90 (1 Unit)
