Sunday afternoon football sees the Melbourne Storm host the Canterbury Bulldogs, in a clash that will see the Storm desperate to flex their Premiership muscle. In the final match of the week, we head to CommBank Stadium, as the Parramatta Eels host the St George Illawarra Dragons, in what promises to be an exciting game of attacking football.
As always, make sure you keep up to date with our match-by-match previews throughout the 2022 NRL season, where we will give you all the best bets to beat the bookie throughout the year.
NRL Round 4 Sunday Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs
AAMI Park, Sunday 3rd April, 4:05pm (AEDT)
Squads
Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Dean Ieremia 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Harry Grant 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenny Bromwich 13. Josh King. INTERCHANGE: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Trent Loiero 17. Tepai Moeroa. RESERVES: 18. Chris Lewis 19. Nick Meaney 20. Jayden Nikorima 21. William Warbrick 22. Marion Seve 23. Tyran Wishart 24. Sualauvi Faalogo
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Matt Dufty 2. Braidon Burns 3. Aaron Schoupp 4. Brent Naden 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Brandon Wakeham 8. Luke Thompson 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Corey Waddell 12. Tevita Pangai Junior 13. Josh Jackson. INTERCHANGE: 14. Bailey Biondi-Odo 15. Chris Patolo 16. Max King 17. Ava Seumanufagai. RESERVES: 19. Reece Hoffman 20. Jake Averillo 21. Joe Stimson 22. Kyle Flanagan 23. Jayden Okunbor 24. Josh Cook 25. Jackson Topine
Match Preview
A Melbourne Storm outfit coming off a home loss to the Parramatta Eels last week, coming up against a team that has struggled to put anything together in attack this season. This could be a long afternoon for the Bulldogs.
The Storm are notoriously good at coming off losses, especially at home. Given this, they must be a good chance at blowing the doors of the insipid Bulldogs here. With a trip coming up to Canberra next week, followed up with hosting the red-hot Sharks, the Storm will view this as a game they need to win to stay in contention with the Panthers.
The Bulldogs have scored less than 10 points per game against far less competition than the Storm. They were hammered by 30+ on both occasions last year by the Storm, and whilst they have shown some grit in defence, the Victorian side will surely have too much.
Looking at key stats, the Bulldogs are similar to last season, often dominating possession and yardage statistics, but they just cannot get the job done in the redzone. Until anything is seen from the spine in this team, and more importantly, from the game plan of Trent Barrett, the Bulldogs will continue to struggle scoring points.
In potential late mail, the word is Brandon Smith will start at lock for the Storm, with Josh King shifting to prop and Nelson Asofa-Solomona reverting to the bench. The Bulldogs are expected to be 1-17, but there could be some moves in the starting forward pack, as has been the case in the first 3 weeks.
I am going back to the well on all Bulldogs related unders and am of the belief the Storm will be good enough to put this game beyond doubt early in the second half. The 16.5 line has moved from 14.5 at open. Only one double digit favourite has covered so far this season, and as such the best bet cannot be the Storm at -16.5, and we will concentrate on totals.
Prop Bets:
Under 41.5 Total Toints ($2.00 at Bet365)
Bulldogs (1st Half Team Total) Under 5.5 ($2.31 at TopSport)
Bulldogs Team Total Under 12.5
$1.88 (3.5 Units)
Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons
CommBank Stadium, Sunday 3rd April, 6:15pm (AEDT)
Squads
Parramatta Eels
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown. INTERCHANGE: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Bryce Cartwright 17. Oregon Kaufusi. RESERVES: 18. Mitch Rein 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Hayze Perham 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Solomone Naiduki 23. Samuel Loizou 24. Elie El Zakhem
St George Illawarra Dragons
1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Jack Gosiewski 13. Tariq Sims. INTERCHANGE: 14. Jack de Belin 15. Josh Kerr 16. Jackson Ford 17. Aaron Woods. RESERVES: 18. Tautau Moga 19. Poasa Faamausili 20. Daniel Alvaro 21. Andrew McCullough 22. Jaiyden Hunt 23. Jonathon Reuben 24. George Burgess
Match Preview
The Eels are coming off an impressive win in Melbourne last week and will surely be full of confidence as a result. The Dragons on the other hand are coming off a poor showing against the Sharks, in what could be a sign of things to come for the Dragons.
Both these sides have looked far better in attack than defence, with the Eels attack being top 3 across most of the important metrics and the Dragons being quite solid also. Both teams however have been below average in defence. The Eels in particular will have serious concerns about their defence, allowing league highs in line breaks allowed (7.3) and tackle breaks allowed (42). All this information leads you to believe overs is the bet in this game.
Last season in round 5, the Dragons headed to Parramatta and came away convincing 26-12 winners over the Eels. I don’t take much from this, as the Dragons started last season as they often do, looking like March/April Premiers, only to drop off and miss the Finals.
Whilst the spread is quite large (-9.5), I really do feel as though the Eels are primed for a big win here. The confidence coming from a big win in Melbourne is surely the catalyst for this team to push on and cement themselves in the top 4, with a nice draw coming up over the next month of football. There were worrying signs for the Dragons last week, and the season could potentially get away from them quickly with another loss here.
The Eels love turning it on at CommBank Stadium, and my bets this week are a reflection of that. Much like the Storm v Bulldogs game, focusing on points being scored will make up most of my betting portfolio for this game. I see the Eels scoring in this game, the question is whether the Dragons can get involved and put up their fair share too.
In team news, Bailey Simonsson is in doubt (concussion) with Hayze Perham the likely replacement should Simonsson not be cleared to return. For the Dragons, they will be hoping Andrew McCollough can return. Named on the extended bench, McCollough will be a massive inclusion for the Dragons, so keep an eye out.
Prop Bets:
Eels -9.5 ($1.91 at Bet365)
Eels Over 24.5 ($2.02 at Unibet)
Over 39.5 Total Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
