Sunday marks the return of the Warriors to their home at Mt Smart Stadium, having played their last game there in 2019. The match is a sell out, with the Warriors looking to snap their 7-game losing streak against the Tigers. It should be an emotion-fuelled match, and it will be interesting to see if the home crowd can snap the Warriors out of their funk.
In the final game of the round, the Dragons host the Raiders at WIN Stadium, in a pivotal clash. Both sides are fighting hard for a top 8 birth, with a win for the Dragons consolidating their position in the top 8, while a win for the Raiders could push them into 8th. A huge clash.
NRL Round 16 Sunday Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers
Mt Smart Stadium, Sunday 3rd July, 2:00pm (AEST)
Squads
New Zealand Warriors
1. Reece Walsh 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Jesse Arthars 4. Euan Aitken 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jazz Tevaga 11. Jack Murchie 12. Tohu Harris (c) 13. Josh Curran. INTERCHANGE: 14. Chanel Harris-Tavita 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Eliesa Katoa 17. Bayley Sironen. RESERVES: 18. Adam Pompey 20. Aaron Pene 21. Rocco Berry 22. Freddy Lussick 23. Daejarn Asi
Wests Tigers
1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. James Roberts 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Fa’amanu Brown 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Luke Garner 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Joe Ofahengaue. INTERCHANGE: 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Adam Doueihi 16. Alex Seyfarth 17. Fonua Pole. RESERVES: 18. Asu Kepaoa 19. Junior Tupou 20. Austin Dias 21. Jacob Liddle 22. Justin Matamua
Match Preview
Two teams in dreadful form line up at 2:00pm on Sunday, when the New Zealand Warriors take on the Wests Tigers. Both sides haven’t won for over a month, with the Tigers last win coming on the 20th of May against the Bulldogs, and the Warriors last win coming on the 30th of April over the Raiders.
Statistically, these two sides are the worst defensive units in the competition regarding points allowed per game, whilst also grading low on metre-based metrics and other key defensive statistics. And with this information, as well as the occasion that presents itself, I believe there’s a great chance for this game to turn into a cricket score.
As noted above, the Warriors return to their spiritual home at Mt Smart Stadium for the first time in over 2 ½ years, as the Warriors were forced to remain in Australia due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It has been a tough 3 seasons for the Warriors, who have struggled, as most would, not seeing their families and living away from home for so long. The relief should be massive and playing a side like the Tigers should give the Warriors all the motivation they need to put on points.
These sides met in round 3 at Campbelltown, with the Warriors prevailing 16-12. The Warriors have won the past 4 contests between these sides and won the last match at Mt Smart Stadium 26-4, in 2018.
The market numbers in my opinion suggest the Warriors are the play regarding sides. In round 13, the Warriors were +6.5 underdogs to the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. One week later, the Tigers were +6.5-point underdogs at home to the Sea Eagles. This says the market believes the Warriors are 4-5 points better on a neutral, and I’d give them serious upside home field advantage this week, and -4.5 to -5.5 on the Warriors is a bet.
Alternate Bets:
Warriors -4.5 ($1.91)
Warriors 13+ ($2.90)
Warriors Over 22.5 Points
$2.02 (1.5 Units)
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
WIN Stadium, Sunday 3rd July, 4:05pm (AEST)
Squads
St George Illawarra Dragons
1. Cody Ramsey 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Jack de Belin 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Jack Bird 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tariq Sims. INTERCHANGE: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Francis Molo 16. Aaron Woods 17. Michael Molo. RESERVES: 18. Josh Kerr 19. Tautau Moga 20. Jayden Sullivan 21. Jaiyden Hunt 22. Billy Burns
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Adam Elliott. INTERCHANGE: 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 17. Corey Horsburgh. RESERVES: 18. Matt Frawley 19. Corey Harawira-Naera 20. Trey Mooney 21. Semi Valemei 22. Adrian Trevilyan
Match Preview
This is a crucial clash between two sides involved in the real dogfight going on now for a spot in the top 8. There are currently 5 teams on 14 or 16 points, sitting between 7th and 11th on the ladder. Looking forward, there is a high likelihood that 2 of these teams will make the top 8, and 3 will miss out. These types of clashes are therefore critical, as it not only secures the winner those precious 2 competition points, but it takes away potential points for the opposition.
In attack, these two sides are extremely similar from a statistical standpoint. This is in both points allowed per game, metres gained metrics and other attacking statistics. It is on the defensive side of the game that the two sides differ however, with the Raiders being a more solid and well-rounded defensive unit. This can probably be put down to their superior forward pack, allowed the Raiders to be one of the better sides in the competition regarding metres and post contact metres conceded.
With the home advantage factored in, I see this being an extremely close battle. As mentioned, there is plenty at stake, regardless of how many rounds are remaining. Both sides will be up for this contest, and it could very well be the determining factor in a team making or missing the top 8.
I like the unders in the game, however my best bet is either team to win by 6 or less.
Alternate Bets:
Dragons H2H ($2.20)
Under 38.5 ($1.90)
Either Team by 6 or Less
$2.70 (1 Unit)
