Round 22 of the AFL season threw up a couple of upsets and a couple of thrashings, before a classic WA Derby closed out the round. It was a round where the hopes of a few of our Brownlow medal contenders may come to an end with the likes of Clayton Oliver, Jack Steele, Sam Walsh and Tom Mitchell likely to miss out on Brownlow votes. At this point, it may be down to just Ollie Wines and Marcus Bontempelli, and rather incredibly, they will play each other next week in a showdown that is certain to be marketed as the Brownlow play off!
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 22 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 22
GWS Giants 16.10.106 def Richmond 10.7.67
The Giants bounced out of the blocks and never looked back as they romped home to end the season for the reigning premiers. Josh Kelly was magnificent with 32 disposals and 11 tackles - the $8 million man is worth every penny. Jacob Hopper (26 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) provided good support in the middle and Isaac Cumming (24 disposals, 9 marks) rebounded superbly. Up forward, it was Tim Taranto (18 disposals, 4 goals) who hit the scoreboard in the first half. Jayden Short (32 disposals) didn’t stop running off half-back for the Tigers while Trent Cotchin (31 disposals, 8 clearances) tried his heart out.
Josh Kelly - 3
Tim Taranto - 2
Jayden Short - 0.5
Isaac Cumming - 0.5
Hawthorn 9.10.64 def Western Bulldogs 5.7.37
The Hawks played the windy conditions in Launceston best to leave the Dogs hurting as they limp towards the finals. Daniel Howe was left alone on the wing to do as he pleased as he amassed 34 disposals, 9 marks and a goal. Tom Mitchell (27 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Jai Newcombe (18 disposals, 8 marks, 11 tackles) were influential while Tim O’Brien (24 disposals, 10 marks) stood tall in defence. Jack Macrae (32 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances) and Tom Liberatore (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 11 clearances) were best for the Dogs. Marcus Bontempelli collected 31 disposals and 6 tackles, but it’s hard to see him getting any Brownlow votes here.
Daniel Howe - 3
Tim O’Brien - 2
Jack Macrae - 1
Geelong 13.7.85 def St.Kilda 11.5.71
St.Kilda kicked the first 31 points of the game, but the Cats worked back into it to claim the valuable win. They’ll now play for top spot on the ladder next week. Sam Menegola (35 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Patrick Dangerfield (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and Cam Guthrie (36 disposals, 9 marks) were all superb and should share the votes. Jack Steele (30 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances) dominated the first half but then went missing.
Sam Menegola - 2.5
Patrick Dangerfield - 2.5
Cam Guthrie - 1
Port Adelaide 21.14.140 def Carlton 5.15.45
Incredibly, the Power trailed the Blues by 23 points in the second quarter, but 19 consecutive goals now sees them on the verge of a big premiership campaign. Travis Boak (31 disposals, 5 tackles, 1 goal) and Ollie Wines (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances) were typically prolific with good support from Karl Amon (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances), Aliir Aliir (19 disposals, 8 marks) in defence and Peter Ladhams (17 disposals, 6 marks, 23 hitouts, 1 goal) who was forced to take over solo ruck duties. Sam Walsh (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) and Matthew Kennedy (28 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) certainly weren’t to blame, but hard to see them getting votes in a 95 point thrashing. Has Ollie Wines done enough to pinch a vote here?
Travis Boak - 3
Aliir Aliir - 2
Ollie Wines - 0.5
Karl Amon - 0.5
Brisbane 22.10.142 def Collingwood 8.9.57
The Lions belted the Pies to give themselves a chance at a top four spot next week. They dominated all over the ground with mids Jarryd Lyons (29 disposals, 6 marks, 9 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Hugh McLuggage (30 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Lachie Neale (31 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) all excellent, while forwards Joe Daniher (15 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) and Charlie Cameron (12 disposals, 6 marks, 6 goals) smashed the scoreboard. Tricky game for Brownlow votes as it could go a number of ways.
Jarryd Lyons - 2
Hugh McLuggage - 2
Joe Daniher - 1
Charlie Cameron - 1
North Melbourne 12.5.77 def by Sydney 13.13.91
The Swans got a scare but got the win as the Kangas locked up their first wooden spoon in 49 years. Luke Parker (25 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and George Hewett (28 disposals, 5 marks, 5 clearances) were busy while Will Hayward (17 disposals, 11 marks, 3 goals) was influential up forward. Aaron Hall (30 disposals, 10 marks) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (24 disposals, 5 marks) continued their impressive seasons for the Roos.
Luke Parker - 3
Will Hayward - 2
George Hewett - 0.5
Aaron Hall - 0.5
Melbourne 16.8.104 def Adelaide 9.9.63
The Dees have a chance to finish on top after getting the better of the Crows. Bailey Fritsch bagged 7 goals from his 16 disposals and 5 marks and will be in the thick of the Brownlow votes. Max Gawn (19 disposals, 26 hitouts, 10 clearances), Christian Salem (29 disposals, 8 marks) and Christian Petracca (23 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 goals) were also strong. Paul Seedsman was one of the best on ground with 36 disposals and a goal for the Crows.
Bailey Fritsch - 3
Paul Seedsman - 2
Max Gawn - 0.5
Christian Salem - 0.5
Gold Coast 4.6.30 def by Essendon 14.14.98
The Bombers were far too good for the Suns and they should now play finals in season 2021. Jake Stringer was the most influential player on the ground with 5 goals from his 19 disposals. Darcy Parish (34 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances) and Zach Merrett (31 disposals) were busy but they were well fed by Sam Draper (24 hitouts, 10 disposals, 5 clearances) who won the ruck battle. Nick Hind is also worth a mention for his 30 disposals, 8 marks and 1 goal.
Jake Stringer - 3
Darcy Parish - 2
Nick Hind - 0.5
Sam Draper - 0.5
Fremantle 12.7.79 def West Coast 9.10.64
A classic Western Derby has seen the Dockers hold on to their slim chance of finals, while putting a massive dent in Eagles hopes, with a gutsy victory. Caleb Serong was superb with 32 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances and 2 goals, including an amazing match-winning goal from the boundary line. David Mundy (28 disposals, 6, tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was also strong while Luke Ryan (26 disposals, 10 marks) was a rock in defence. Andrew Gaff (32 disposals, 9 marks) didn’t stop running for the Eagles, with Luke Shuey (25 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) and Jack Redden (25 disposals, 9 tackles, 6 clearances) also good contributors.
Caleb Serong - 3
David Mundy - 2
Luke Ryan - 0.5
Andrew Gaff - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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