It was a season-low 15 disposals from Brownlow Medal favourite Marcus Bontempelli last weekend, so Round 20 shapes as an opportunity for the pack to close the gap in the race for the 2021 Brownlow Medal. Young gun Sam Walsh racked up his fifth best-on-ground performance in the last six weeks to storm up the Brownlow leaderboard and into our top 3, while Zach Merrett, Clayton Oliver, Jack Steele, Christian Petracca and Ollie Wines are all a chance to poll in Round 20 action. We can't wait for this Brownlow count, it's going to be a beauty!
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 20 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 20
St.Kilda 12.9.81 def by Carlton 18.4.112
It was an insipid performance by the Saints as the Blues kept their finals hopes alive. It was an improved effort from Carlton with Sam Walsh again leading the charge with 26 disposals and 3 goals. Harry McKay booted 5 goals from his 11 disposals and 7 marks, while Jack Silvagni (25 disposals, 9 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) battled well in the ruck after an early injury to Tom De Koning. As usual, Jack Steele was St.Kilda’s best with 36 disposals, 14 tackles and 8 clearances.
Sam Walsh - 3
Harry McKay - 1.5
Jack Steele - 1.5
Western Bulldogs 15.15.105 def Adelaide 8.8.56
The Bulldogs were too classy for the Crows in windy conditions in Ballarat. It was a season low for Marcus Bontempelli so the Brownlow votes are up for grabs in this game! Bailey Dale (31 disposals, 1 goal), Caleb Daniel (32 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal), Jack Macrae (31 disposals, 12 clearances) and Bailey Smith (29 disposals, 7 tackles) are likely to be the ones fighting it out for the votes but they could go any way.
Bailey Dale - 3
Caleb Daniel - 2
Jack Macrae - 0.5
Bailey Smith - 0.5
North Melbourne 6.6.42 def by Geelong 8.14.62
The Cats did enough to shake off a determined Kangaroos in a low-scoring contest in Hobart. The Guthrie brothers were best with Cam Guthrie (29 disposals, 6 marks, 5 clearances, 2 goals) busy in the middle while Zach Guthrie (28 disposals, 13 marks) was a late inclusion but played a career-best game. Jy Simpkin (29 disposals, 8 marks, 7 clearances) continued his good season, while Luke Davies-Uniacke (23 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Aaron Hall (36 disposals, 6 marks) were good contributors.
Cam Guthrie - 3
Zach Guthrie - 2
Jy Simpkin - 1
Collingwood 14.6.90 def West Coast 6.9.45
The Pies shocked the Eagles at the MCG to leave the Eagles back in the pack and fighting for a spot in the eight. Steele Sidebottom (33 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) enjoyed the captaincy role and might be polling his first Brownlow votes of the season, with Jordan De Goey (34 disposals, 7 marks), Jack Crisp (36 disposals, 9 marks) and Taylor Adams (34 disposals, 6 marks, 8 clearances) also influential. Andrew Gaff (33 disposals, 7 marks) was best on a disappointing day for the Eagles.
Steele Sidebottom - 2.5
Jordan De Goey - 2.5
Jack Crisp - 1
Gold Coast 4.6.30 def by Melbourne 18.20.128
The Suns have packed up shop in season 2021 with a pathetic showing against the rampaging Dees. The Melbourne forwards had a field day but they were set up by Clayton Oliver (35 disposals, 5 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Christian Petracca (32 disposals, 10 marks, 5 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) in the midfield. Luke Jackson (17 disposals, 13 hitouts, 4 goals) cashed in up forward in one of his best games. Touk Miller (34 disposals, 10 tackles, 7 clearances) was once again best for the Suns.
Clayton Oliver - 3
Luke Jackson - 1.5
Christian Petracca - 1.5
Hawthorn 14.8.92 def Brisbane 12.8.80
The Hawks overcame a turbulent week off the field with a confidence-boosting win over the Lions. The lead blew out to 53 points at three-quarter time, but it was too little, too late for the Lions. Chad Wingard was back to his scintillating best with 32 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles and 2 goals, while Jaegar O’Meara (35 disposals, 11 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Tom Mitchell (34 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were also dominant. Jarryd Lyons (38 disposals, 9 marks, 5 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) is a chance for a Brownlow vote as the Lions best.
Chad Wingard - 3
Jaegar O’Meara - 2
Jarryd Lyons - 0.5
Tom Mitchell - 0.5
Essendon 16.6.102 def by Sydney 17.7.109
One of the matches of the year was a high-scoring shootout that saw the Swans hold on against the Bombers. Callum Mills (33 disposals, 12 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal), Luke Parker (26 disposals, 9 clearances, 2 goals) and Justin McInerney (28 disposals, 8 marks, 6 clearances) were busy in the middle while Tom Papley (17 disposals, 4 goals) was lively up forward. Zach Merrett should also be in the votes for his 35 disposals, 7 marks and 2 goals, while Darcy Parish collected 34 disposals and 8 clearances.
Callum Mills - 3
Zach Merrett - 2
Luke Parker - 1
Fremantle 7.13.55 def Richmond 6.15.51
The Dockers are back in the eight after sneaking home against the Tigers in a tough slug out West. Andrew Brayshaw was superb with 39 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances and a clear 3 Brownlow votes. Adam Cerra (33 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) and David Mundy (29 disposals, 5 clearances) were also among the Dockers best. For the Tigers, Trent Cotchin (32 disposals) and Sydney Stack (25 disposals, 10 marks) were back to their best while Dion Prestia (31 disposals, 5 tackles) was a welcome addition to the side.
Andrew Brayshaw - 3
Adam Cerra - 2
Trent Cotchin - 1
GWS Giants 11.7.73 def by Port Adelaide 15.10.100
The Power were too solid for GWS to leave the Giants sitting back outside the top eight. Karl Amon (31 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal), Ollie Wines (28 disposals, 6 marks) and Travis Boak (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) were too strong in the middle, while Charlie Dixon (12 disposals, 5 marks, 4 goals) impressed up forward. Josh Kelly (31 disposals), Jacob Hopper (29 disposals) and Nick Haynes (28 disposals, 10 marks) were best for the Giants.
Karl Amon - 3
Ollie Wines - 1
Travis Boak - 1
Josh Kelly - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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