Round 2 of the 2021 AFL season produced a couple of thrilling finishes with the Cats scraping home in controversial fashion against the Lions, while the Dogs and the Eagles played out an epic. The cream has risen to the top early on the Brownlow Medal leaderboard with Dustin Martin and Tom Mitchell starting the season strongly, while the surprise packet has been the return to form of Crow power forward Taylor Walker. We've gone through every match of Round 2 with our analysis and predicted Brownlow votes.
Read on for our 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 2.
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 2
Carlton 13.7.95 def by Collingwood 16.10.106
It was a back and forth contest, but the Pies pulled clear in the final quarter for a solid win. Scott Pendlebury (30 disposals) arguably had the best four-quarter performance of the game, while Taylor Adams (29 diposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Jordan De Goey (16 disposals, 4 goals) starred early, and Jack Crisp (36 disposals) was busy late in the game. A lot of talk about Darcy Moore’s 22 disposals and 6 marks, that included 18 intercepted possessions, but his opponent Harry McKay did kick 4 goals. It’s hard to see any of the Blues pinching a vote.
Scott Pendlebury – 2.5
Taylor Adams – 2.5
Jordan De Goey – 0.5
Darcy Moore – 0.5
Geelong 12.9.81 def Brisbane 11.14.80
It was a controversial finish with a poor umpiring decision handing a one-point win to the Cats. Skipper Joel Selwood led from the front with 27 disposals, 7 clearances and 2 goals, and was well supported by Zach Tuohy (27 disposals, 2 goals), Cam Guthrie (28 dispoasls, 5 tackles) and Isaac Smith (26 disposals, 11 marks, 1 goal). Tom Hawkins was also prominent with 17 disposals, 5 marks and 3 goals. Special mention also to the tagging role performed by Mark O’Connor who had 15 disposals and laid 7 tackles, while keeping Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale to just 16 disposals. Eric Hipwood was dangerous for the Lions with 4 goals from 12 disposals.
Joel Selwood – 3
Zach Tuohy – 2
Tom Hawkins – 0.5
Mark O’Connor – 0.5
Sydney 18.13.121 def Adelaide 11.22.88
The Swans are the surprise packet of the 2021 season so far as they recorded another impressive victory. And it’s their young kids who are the ones making the difference. Errol Gulden (22 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) might have Brownlow votes in his first two matches, while Braeden Campbell (25 disposals, 6 marks) was also a stand out. Isaac Heeney was again busy up forward with 3 goals from 14 disposals and 8 marks. For the Crows, once again Tex Walker collected a bag with 6 goals from 15 disposals, while Rory Laird was busy with 30 disposals and 10 clearances.
Taylor Walker – 3
Braeden Campbell – 2
Errol Gulden – 1
Port Adelaide 18.11.119 def Essendon 9.11.65
The Power is certainly on in 2021 as Port thumped a helpless Essendon team. Zak Butters (36 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Ollie Wines (38 disposals, 5 tackles) were superb, while Charlie Dixon (4 goals, 13 disposals) and Mitch Georgiades (4 goals, 13 disposals, 8 marks) smashed the scoreboard. Jordan Ridley tried hard for the Bombers with 32 disposals and 7 marks.
Zak Butters – 3
Ollie Wines – 2
Charlie Dixon - 1
St Kilda 11.7.73 def by Melbourne 12.19.91
The Dees are 2-0 to start the season after a strong win over the Saints. Clayton Oliver was a ball magnet with 37 disposals, 11 clearances and 6 tackles, with good support from Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 5 tackles) and Christian Salem (30 disposals). Jack Steele (24 disposals, 3 goals) was best for the Saints while Jack Billings (23 disposals, 13 marks) was also good.
Clayton Oliver – 3
Christian Petracca – 1.5
Jack Steele – 1.5
Gold Coast 14.14.98 def North Melbourne 5.9.39
North Melbourne fans are in for a long season as the Gold Coast showed they are a level above with a big win on Saturday night. Noah Anderson was brilliant with 35 disposals, 9 marks and 7 clearances, with Touk Miller (31 disposals, 8 tackles) and Brandon Ellis (33 disposals, 8 marks) also busy. Jed Anderson was best for North with 27 disposals and a massive 14 tackles.
Noah Anderson – 3
Touk Miller – 2
Brandon Ellis - 1
Hawthorn 7.7.49 def by Richmond 11.12.78
It was a comfortable win for the Tigers on Sunday and the big names were again amongst the votes. Dustin Martin (28 disposals, 1 goal) and Tom Mitchell (37 disposals) will be a big chance to poll and they are the two early season movers in the Brownlow betting markets. Dion Prestia (29 disposals), Trent Cotchin (27 disposals), Blake Hardwick (31 disposals, 15 marks) and Changkuoth Jiath (25 disposals, 8 marks) will also be likely to catch the umpires’ eye.
Dustin Martin – 3
Tom Mitchell – 2
Trent Cotchin – 0.5
Changkuoth Jiath – 0.5
Western Bulldogs 14.16.100 def West Coast 14.9.93
The game of the season so far saw the Dogs come from behind to clutch a fantastic victory. Jack Macrae (41 disposals, 9 clearances) and Marcus Bontempelli (30 disposals, 3 goals) were both sensational and will fight it out for the three votes, while Josh Dunkley (25 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) and Tom Liberatore (26 disposals, 9 clearances) were also very good. For the Eagles, Tim Kelly led the way with 29 disposals but he was well-served by the dominance of Nic Natanui in the ruck who had 40 hitouts, 11 clearances and 13 disposals.
Marcus Bontempelli – 2.5
Jack Macrae – 2.5
Nic Natanui - 1
Fremantle 11.21.87 def GWS Giants 7.14.56
The Giants were poor and the score line flattered them in the end as Freo missed plenty of chances in a comfortable victory. David Mundy was best afield with 35 disposals and 6 clearances, while Andrew Brayshaw wasn’t far behind for his 32 disposals, 6 tackles and 2 goals. Adam Cerra (28 disposals) also won plenty of ball, while Lachie Shultz (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) and Sam Switkowski (16 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) were lively up forward.
David Mundy – 3
Andrew Brayshaw – 2
Adam Cerra – 0.5
Lachie Shultz – 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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