Is it a race in two for the 2021 Brownlow Medal? No doubt it's set to be one of the most exciting Brownlow counts in years, but perhaps Ollie Wines and Marcus Bontempelli are starting to draw away from the pack as we approach the finish line in the final few rounds of the season. Both were again in the votes in Round 19, although it's not clear cut how many votes they will receive. Round 19 will definitely be an interesting one. Other great performances were seen from Isaac Heeney, Lachie Whitfield, Rory Laird and North Melbourne forward Nick Larkey.
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 19 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 19
Port Adelaide 14.13.97 def Collingwood 10.9.69
Round 19 kicked off with the Power grabbing a comfortable win over the Pies on Friday night. Travis Boak was good in his 300th game with 30 disposals and 7 clearances, while Willem Drew (32 disposals, 5 tackles, 8 clearances) and Ollie Wines (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) were also busy with Wines influential with 13 touches in the last quarter when the game was there to be won. Taylor Adams (24 disposals, 9 tackles) was excellent early before fading, with Brodie Grundy (27 disposals, 23 hitouts, 7 clearances) and Jack Crisp (30 disposals, 13 marks, 6 tackles) among the Pies best. Not the easiest game for Brownlow vote predictions!
Travis Boak - 2
Willem Drew - 2
Ollie Wines - 1
Taylor Adams - 1
Carlton 11.11.77 def by North Melbourne 18.8.116
The Blues’ finals hopes are over as North got a rare win and showed that they will be a team on the rise in 2022. Jy Simpkin led the way in the middle as he subdued dangerman Sam Walsh on his way to winning 31 disposals, 8 marks, 5 tackles and 8 clearances. The Roos forwards will be in the votes with Nick Larkey having his best ever game with 7 goals from 20 disposals and 8 marks, while Tarryn Thomas (23 disposals, 5 tackles, 5 clearances, 4 goals) and Jaidyn Stephenson (24 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) were both brilliant.
Nick Larkey - 3
Tarryn Thomas - 2
Jy Simpkin - 0.5
Jaiden Stephenson - 0.5
Brisbane 17.18.120 def Gold Coast 10.11.71
The Lions were trailing by 27 points at half-time but turned it on in the second half with 11 goals in a row to run away with a big win. Jarryd Lyons won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for the second time this season for his 33 disposals (18 contested), 6 marks and 6 tackles. Oscar McInerney (18 disposals, 39 hitouts, 12 clearances) dominated the ruck while Gold Coast’s Brayden Fiorini should be in the votes for his 41 disposals and 8 marks.
Jarryd Lyons - 3
Brayden Fiorini - 2
Oscar McInerney - 1
West Coast 14.10.94 def St.Kilda 13.8.86
The Eagles did enough to beat off the challenge of fellow finals aspirants in the Saints to all-but secure their spot in the finals. Dom Sheed (32 disposals, 6 marks, 7 clearances, 2 goals) was the best four-quarter performer, while Tim Kelly (26 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) had a big first half. Andrew Gaff (29 disposals, 10 marks) was also good. However the game was almost stolen single-handedly by Saints young gun Max King who clunked everything that came his way among 13 disposals, 9 marks and 6 goals. Zak Jones was the leading ball winner on the ground with 32 disposals and 7 clearances.
Dom Sheed - 3
Max King - 2
Tim Kelly 1
Melbourne 9.11.65 def by Western Bulldogs 13.7.85
The Dogs are back on top of the mountain in a clash between the two best teams in season 2021. It was a big game for the Brownlow contenders too, and it will be interesting to see which way the votes go in this one. We’ll lean to Marcus Bontempelli but it’s not clear cut. The Bont was influential when it mattered most on his way to 31 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances and 2 goals. Jack Macrae (38 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances), Caleb Daniel (34 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) and Bailey Smith (26 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) could also lay claim to votes for the Dogs. Meanwhile, the Dees big guns were typically busy with Clayton Oliver (38 disposals, 8 clearances) and Christian Petracca (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) also in contention for votes once again.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Caleb Daniel - 2
Clayton Oliver - 1
Adelaide 16.6.102 def Hawthorn 13.5.83
The Crows landed the win to leave the Hawks in danger of collecting their first wooden spoon since 1965. Rory Laird was sublime with 36 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 10 clearances, 2 goals and 3 Brownlow votes. Ben Keays (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances) and Harry Schoenberg (24 disposals, 6 tackles) were also good for the Crows in the middle. Tom Mitchell (29 disposals, 9 tackles, 5 clearances, 1 goal) might pick up a vote as the best for the Hawks.
Rory Laird - 3
Ben Keays - 1.5
Tom Mitchell - 1.5
Sydney 14.14.98 def Fremantle 8.10.58
The Swans thrashed the Dockers with Isaac Heeney the star with 5 goals from 22 disposals and 11 marks. Josh Kennedy (34 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles, 7 clearances) and Luke Parker (30 disposals, 5 marks, 2 goals) were also brilliant. Adam Cerra (30 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) and Andrew Brayshaw (34 disposals, 5 tackles) tried hard for the Dockers but seem unlikely to challenge for votes.
Isaac Heeney - 3
Josh Kennedy - 2
Luke Parker - 1
Geelong 15.5.95 def Richmond 8.9.57
The Cats continue to purr in 2021 as the Tigers find themselves back outside the top eight on the ladder. Patrick Dangerfield is hitting form at the right time of the year with 28 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles, 7 clearances and 1 goal in a complete performance. Cam Guthrie (34 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances), Tom Stewart (25 disposals, 9 marks) and Isaac Smith (25 disposals, 9 marks) were busy for the Cats while Tom Hawkins (11 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals) was good up forward.
Patrick Dangerfield - 3
Cam Guthrie - 2
Isaac Smith - 1
Essendon 7.11.53 def by GWS Giants 9.12.66
The Giants are back in the top eight after accounting for the Bombers. Lachie Whitfield was back to his best with 35 disposals and 10 marks, while Tom Green (29 disposals, 7 marks) and Harry Perryman (25 disposals, 9 marks) were also good. He may not get Brownlow votes, but Lachie Ash (13 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) did a great job in a tagging role, keeping Darcy Parish under wraps. Dyson Heppell (28 disposals, 6 marks) was best for the Bombers.
Lachie Whitfield - 3
Tom Green - 2
Harry Perryman - 0.5
Dyson Heppell - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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