Two big games in the NRL this Sunday to complete Round 12 of the 2020 NRL season. First up, we'll see if the Bulldogs can show some fight against a strong Eels outfit, before the Storm and the Knights clash in one of the matches of the round. The winner of that one, will be setup for a deep run this season. Check out our NRL betting tips for Sunday's games below.
NRL Round 12 Sunday Betting Tips
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (16th) v Parramatta Eels (3rd)
The Bulldogs caused an upset last week on the road, displaying another gritty and determined effort to win 18-12 in horrendously wet conditions. They gave themselves every possible chance of winning this match. They completed at 91% (amazing considering how wet it was) and made just 6 errors. While these statistics read well, they will want to be more effective when attacking their opponent's line in coming weeks. There were stages during this match that left many wondering what attacking options they actually have to use.
The Eels have no such issues and continued on with their winning momentum, defeating the Tigers 26-16 to open the round of fixtures. After several underwhelming performances, the style returned to their play. They completed at 83% with 54% possession and had 11 offloads. This forced extra pressure on the Tigers through second phase play. It is no surprise that their improved attack coincided with the return of Moses in the halves. They will sense that this is yet another opportunity to continue developing their confidence and aim towards retaining the lead in the competition.
The Stats
It is not great reading for the Bulldogs. They are ranked 3rd for missed tackles (33.2 pg), 14th for metres per game (1,559.0m), 16th in linebreaks (2 pg) and 16th in points (12.2 pg). On the other side of the things, the Eels are 9th for missed tackles (27.9 pg), 1st in metres gained (1,955.5m), 3rd in linebreaks (4.4 pg) and 6th in points (23.1 pg). The Eels have the edge over the Bulldogs too - they have won 7 out of their past 10 meetings. In those wins, the average winning margin is 7.1 points, with 5 of the 7 wins being by 12 points or less.
Verdict
It is hard to see anything other than a Eels win in this game. Then again, the same statement was made last week and the Bulldogs caused an upset. The Bulldogs were also gritty when defeated 8-2 in the opening round of the competition. Since then, the Eels have developed as a team and the winning performances have increased their confidence enormously. The Bulldogs will attempt to drag down the Eels to their level in this game and it is up to one of the leading teams in the competition to rise above it. Being a day game, the Eels will have greater opportunities to capitalise on attacking opportunities and the Bulldogs look set on having a difficult afternoon. In terms of a winning margin, the 4 times they have played teams outside of the Top 8 this year, they have won by an average margin of 29 points, with the lowest (10 points) coming last week against the Tigers.
Melbourne Storm (2nd) v Newcastle Knights (6th)
The Storm machine continued to gather momentum, this time disposing of an insipid Broncos teams 46-8 on the road. They were made to work in the first half, only leading 14-8 at HT. The reason for this was hardly an improvement from their opponents, but rather a lack of execution from their side. It was uncharacteristic to see them make 11 errors and complete at only 76%. It was a different story in the second half though, as they powered away. They impressively finished the match with 12 linebreaks and averaging 9.7m per carry.
The same cannot be said for the Knights, who displayed a dull effort to be defeated 18-12 by the Bulldogs. Despite finishing the stronger team, they never challenged their opponents when it mattered; they completed at 79% for the match and made 13 total errors. They perhaps had some excuses to offer, with their two hookers leaving this match with season-ending injuries. Nevertheless, the improvement recently in this team will void them making any excuses for the effort and force them to take accountability. They will have a tough task ahead of them but, if they want to be considered as a contender, they should be aiming to bounce back here and walk away with the two competition points.
The Stats
The Storm have the edge over the Knights in both attack and defence. They average 25.7 points per game in attack and concede 12.4 ppg. In equal measure, the Knights average 19.9 ppg in attack and 16.2 ppg in defence. Interestingly, the Knights have the edge over the Storm this season in both metres gained (1876.1m v 1715.2m) and post contact metres (648.3m v 577m). The key is in try assists; the Storm average 3.2 per game (4th) compared with the Knights 2.3 per game (11th).
Verdict
This is a game the Knights have to win if they are to be taken seriously. Unfortunately, they have several other factors against them ahead of this clash. The lack of depth to their team is going to impact their effectiveness and ability to compete with the Storm. With home-ground advantage taken out of the equation, the Storm will rely on their structure and execution to get them through this. The Knights went down by 14 points back in Round 5 and with all things considered (including a weaker team), it is hard to see them turning the tables on that performance. To increase the difficulty of this task, the Storm have won 9 out of the past 11 matches between these two sides, dating back to 2014. Unfortunately for Knights fans, there is little to suggest anything other than a one-sided affair.
Storm to win by 13+
$2.10
