Just like that, 12 rounds of the AFL season are in the books, and after a 20-day frenzy of footy action, we finally have a couple of days to catch our breath before the next round gets underway. Round 12 saw some of the most brilliant performances of the season, with Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli putting in a sublime performance against the Crows. He'll pick up three votes in Round 12, but who else will join him? Let's take a closer look at the matches from the weekend with our Round 12 Brownlow vote predictions.
Our Brownlow Medal predictions and rolling Brownlow Medal tracker allow you to keep an eye on the Brownlow betting markets throughout the season, so that you can build a green book so that by the time the 2020 Brownlow Medal night rolls around we’re assured of a profit!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our live 2020 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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Round 12 Brownlow Medal Votes
The 20-day footy frenzy has finally come to an end with a fantastic round of footy in Round 12. We saw one of the great all-time finishes when Carlton defeated Freo, while The Bont was in sparkling form against the hapless Crows. Our runaway Brownlow Medal leader Lachie Neale may be a chance for votes, but contender Christian Petracca seems certain to close the gap after another strong performance for the Demons. Let's check out our Brownlow vote predictions for each match of Round 12.
Sydney 10.6.66 def GWS Giants 3.7.25
Sydney kicked off Round 12 with an upset win over a pretty poor Giants team in the first Sydney Derby to be played in Perth! Luke Parker (29 disposals, 6 tackles) and James Rowbottom (20 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were good in the middle, Jake Lloyd (27 disposals, 6 marks) and Dean Rampe (22 disposals, 7 marks) patrolled half-back while Nick Blakey (18 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) was dangerous up forward. Josh Kelly played a lone hand for the Giants with 31 disposals, 5 tackles and 9 clearances.
Luke Parker – 3
Dean Rampe – 1
Nick Blakey – 1
Josh Kelly – 1
Geelong 14.7.91 def Port Adelaide 4.7.31
The Cats are a serious premiership contender after demolishing the top-of-the-table Power team. Patrick Dangerfield was sublime with 24 disposals and 5 clearances, with good support from Cam Guthrie (27 disposals, 5 tackles) in the middle. Marc Blicavs floated around superbly with 21 disposals, 7 marks, 6 hitouts and 6 clearances while big Tom Hawkins was unstoppable in one-on-one contests up forward with a brilliant 6 goals from 17 disposals and 10 marks. Travis Boak was best for the Power with 24 disposals and 7 clearances.
Tom Hawkins – 3
Patrick Dangerfield – 2
Mark Blicavs – 1
North Melbourne 8.4.52 def by Brisbane 7.11.53
The Lions were awful but that was enough to defeat an undermanned North Melbourne team. The Lions didn’t have a lot of winners as North Melbourne’s key on-ballers may take the votes here. Jed Anderson accumulated 29 disposals, 6 tackles and 8 clearances and he was well supported by Jy Simpkin who was back in form with 26 disposals and 8 tackles. Lachie Neale (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances) and Dayne Zorko (23 disposals, 6 tackles) may fight it out for the minor votes.
Jed Anderson – 3
Jy Simpkin – 2
Dayne Zorko – 0.5
Lachie Neale – 0.5
Melbourne 16.4.100 def Collingwood 6.8.44
Melbourne are now in the Top 8 after an upset demolition of the Pies. Clayton Oliver (24 disposals, 8 clearances), Christian Petracca (24 disposals, 1 goal), Ed Langdon (22 disposals, 2 goals) and Angus Brayshaw (23 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) were among the best for the Dees. Taylor Adams (30 disposals, 1 goal) and Steele Sidebottom (29 disposals) won plenty of ball but the Pies were simply spanked!
Clayton Oliver – 2.5
Christian Petracca – 2.5
Ed Langdon – 0.5
Angus Brayshaw – 0.5
Fremantle 5.6.36 def by Carlton 5.10.40
One of the most ridiculous finishes to a game you’ll ever see as Jack Newnes slotted an impossible goal from the boundary line to snatch an unlikely win over the Dockers. Ed Curnow (33 disposals, 10 clearances), Sam Walsh (24 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Patrick Cripps (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) enjoyed the wet conditions to be best for the Blues. Luke Ryan (24 disposals) repelled plenty of attack for Freo, while Nat Fyfe made it look like a dry day with his eye-catching skills as he picked up 21 disposals.
Ed Curnow – 3
Sam Walsh – 2
Nat Fyfe – 1
Western Bulldogs 16.15.111 def Adelaide 8.6.54
The Dogs thumped the hapless Crows and the top three for votes looks pretty clear cut, although the order may be up for debate. Marcus Bontempelli is going to be hard to budge for the three votes after his spectacular game of 33 disposals, 9 tackles, 12 clearances and 2 goals. He was simply enormous. Bailey Smith had his best-ever game with 37 disposals and 6 clearances, while their work was finished off up forward by Aaron Naughton who returned to form with 6 goals from his 8 disposals and 6 marks. Lachie Hunter was next best with 29 disposals and a goal.
Marcus Bontempelli – 3
Bailey Smith – 2
Aaron Naughton - 1
St.Kilda 10.8.68 def Essendon 5.3.33
The Saints bounced back with a strong win over the Dons. Zak Jones (26 disposals, 5 tackles) was great in his 100th game, while Josh Battle (18 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) and Jack Billings (23 disposals, 6 marks) were also influential. Dylan Shiel (29 disposals, 5 tackles, 5 clearances) and Darcy Parish (29 disposals, 5 clearances) were the best for Essendon.
Zak Jones – 3
Josh Battle – 2
Jack Billings - 1
West Coast 12.9.81 def Hawthorn 7.7.49
A comfortable win in the West for the Eagles, although it may be a tricky game for Brownlow votes. Andrew Gaff (33 disposals) won the most disposals but perhaps there was more influence from the backline of Jeremy McGovern (16 disposals, 8 marks), Tom Barrass (19 disposals, 9 marks) and Brad Sheppard (22 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal). Tom Mitchell (34 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances) and Jaegar O’Meara (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) were also good for the Hawks.
Jeremy McGovern – 2
Tom Barrass – 2
Tom Mitchell – 1
Andrew Gaff - 1
Richmond 8.5.53 def Gold Coast 4.8.32
It was a struggle but the Tigers came from behind in the second half to get over the line against the Suns. It might be a strange game for votes with young guns Jack Lukosius (27 disposals, 7 marks) and Noah Anderson (26 disposals) playing their career best games despite the losing result. Trent Cotchin made a difference for the Tigers with 26 disposals, 6 tackles and 8 clearances and should be in the votes. The order of the votes is the only question.
Jack Lukosius – 3
Noah Anderson – 1.5
Trent Cotchin – 1.5
