After a fierce rivalry throughout the late 2000’s and early 2010’s, the annual Easter Monday blockbuster between Hawthorn and Geelong has become one of the most anticipated matchups of the year. The two will duke it out once again in Round 5, this Monday, the 22nd of April from 3.20pm.
We have a full betting preview and tips for the blockbuster game below and with a plethora of AFL action on throughout the next week, be sure to check out our AFL Tips Page for regular content.
AFL Round 5 Hawthorn vs Geelong Betting Tips
Monday 22nd of April, 3.20pm AEST, MCG
Five of the last six games between these two teams have been decided by a combined total of just 21 points and no doubt Monday will be another close affair.
Hawthorn
The Hawks currently sit in 9th place on the ladder with a 2-2 record through four games. They’ll be disappointed with their loss to the Saints at Marvel Stadium last weekend after leading for the majority of the game. James Sicily was great in defence for the Hawks, racking up 28 touches and 10 marks, however, he was the only Hawk inside the top eight disposal winners on the ground as the Saints midfield controlled the battle.
Inconsistency has been the key word for the Hawks through the first four rounds. They travelled to Adelaide and captured a fantastic win in Round 1 but couldn’t back it up as they squandered a 30 point lead to lose to the Bulldogs in Round 2. Round 3 saw them capture another good win over the Kangaroos at the MCG, but once again they couldn’t back it up against the Saints. They generally get up for the big games and trends suggest they should come to play here.
The Hawks are ravaged by injury at the moment. James Frawley comes out of the side for Monday’s clash with a hamstring injury and will join Grant Birchall, Shaun Burgoyne, Tom Mitchell, Liam Shiels and Ben Stratton on the sidelines. However, star midfielder Jaeger O’Meara returns for the Hawks this weekend and should be critical in competing with the stacked Geelong midfield.
Geelong
The Cats started the 2019 season like a house on fire, winning games over Collingwood, Melbourne and Adelaide to start the season. They faltered in Round 4, going down to the Giants by four points at GMHBA Stadium and will look to bounce back on Monday. The Cats midfield struggled to assert themselves against the Giants, as Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Tim Kelly had just 44 touches between them.
The Cats have had an extremely tough run to start the season with games against four sides that have had top five finishes within the last two years. They’ll get a bit of a reprieve this week against an undermanned Hawthorn side before a tough game against West Coast. After that, however, the road gets extremely easy for Geelong with games against Essendon, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast and Sydney over their next five rounds.
Defender Zach Touhy looked set to return to the Cats line-up this week but will sit out once again while Scott Selwood, Lachie Henderson and Jed Bews remain on the sidelines. Apart from that, the Cats injury list looks quite good and given their form, it might be tough for some of those players to force their way back in.
History
2018 Round 21 – Hawthorn (10.11.71) defeated Geelong (8.12.60)
2018 Round 2 – Geelong (18.9.117) lost to Hawthorn (17.16.118)
2017 Round 17 – Geelong (13.10.88) defeated Hawthorn (12.13.85)
2017 Round 4 – Hawthorn (6.12.48 lost to Geelong (20.14.134)
2016 Qual. Final – Geelong (12.13.85) defeated Hawthorn (12.11.83)
2016 Round 1 – Geelong (18.8.116) defeated Hawthorn (12.14.86)
Prediction
The Cats start as 13.5 point favourites here, which actually seems a bit low considering the Hawks were disappointing against the Saints last weekend. However, the blockbuster at the MCG factor comes into play here which naturally brings the line in a few points.
The Cats midfield should control this game, especially with the Hawks missing a few key midfielders in Mitchell and Shiels. We think they move to 4-1 on the season but can’t see it being a blowout.
