The 2019 AFL Finals comes to a climax this weekend with the Grand Final taking place on Saturday! Richmond and GWS have manoeuvred their way through a tricky finals series to earn the right to play in the big dance. First bounce will be at approximately 2:30pm at the MCG.
We’ve been providing betting tips for every and every match of the 2019 season and the Grand Final will be no different. Here, we’ll be focusing on the match result and the Norm Smith Medal.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other AFL related betting tips for the all-important Grand Final.
AFL Grand Final Betting Tips
Richmond Tigers vs GWS Giants
Saturday, 2:30pm AEST, MCG
Here we are. After a fantastic 2019 AFL season, just two teams remain in the hunt for an AFL Premiership. The Tigers are looking to make it two flags in three years for a total of 12, while the Giants are hoping to win their first.
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers looked in all sorts of trouble during their preliminary final with the Cats when they trailed by 21 points at the main break. However, they quickly wrestled back momentum after half time and went on to win by 19 points in a relatively comfortable final term. Best afield in their big comeback win was Tom Lynch with five goals, although Bachar Houli (32 disposals) and Dion Prestia (28 disposals, two goals) were also dominant.
As we all know, it’s been far from smooth sailing for the Tigers this year. Losing arguably the greatest defender of the generation in Alex Rance to an ACL in Round 1, as well as injuries to Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and many others over the course of the season have made it an extremely challenging campaign. However, their depth has proven to be a great strength and now at nearly full strength, Richmond will be a hard force to stop on Saturday.
GWS Giants
The Giants held off a rampaging Magpie outfit in the fourth quarter of their preliminary final to eventually get over the line by four points. It was a huge effort by a depleted Giants team that was without more than a handful of their star players. Key contributors in their famous win were Nick Haynes (30 disposals, nine rebounds 50s) in defence, Zach Williams (25 disposals, one goal) in the midfield, and Jeremy Cameron (three goals) up forward.
The Tigers have had a tough season with injuries, but the Giants may have had it even tougher. They too had one of their best players in Callan Ward suffer an ACL injury early in the season, but unlike the Tigers, the Giants will be far from full strength on Saturday. Lachie Williams is recovering from an appendicitis and will be less than 100%, Phil Davis was proppy last weekend and failed to train midweek, and Stephen Coniglio, who polled 17 votes in the Brownlow Medal, will take no part in the Grand Final.
Head-to-head
These clubs have met on 12 occasions since the Giants joined the competition in 2012. The Tigers lead the overall head-to-head count 8-4.
Last five meetings:
2019 R17 – Richmond (94) defeated GWS (67)
2019 R3 – GWS (125) defeated Richmond (76)
2018 R17 – GWS (79) defeated Richmond (77)
2017 PF – Richmond (103) defeated GWS (67)
2017 R18 – Richmond (64) defeated GWS (45)
Key Betting Statistics
- The home team has won the last nine times these clubs have played.
- Richmond has never lost to GWS at the MCG (5-0).
- Richmond has won each of its last 12 day matches in Melbourne by a margin of 1-39 points.
- GWS has covered the line in each of its last five finals.
- Each of the last four Grand Finals have gone UNDER the total match points line.
Prediction
Grand Final Day is notoriously tough to predict but we just simply can’t go past the Tigers this year. They’ve won 11 straight matches coming in and have never lost to the Giants at the MCG in five meetings. Moreover, the Giants are a bit more battered and bruised than the Tigers, so we expect Richmond to pull away in the fourth quarter and win this by a relatively comfortable margin, covering the line in the process.
Richmond Tigers -17.5
$1.91
Norm Smith Medal
Awarded to the best player on Grand Final Day, the Norm Smith Medal is one of the most prestigious individual accolades in our great game. It was first presented in 1979 and has only been won by a player from a losing team on four occasions, those being Maurice Rioli in 1982, Gary Ablett Sr. in 1989, Nathan Buckley in 2002 and Chris Judd in 2005.
Considering a player from a losing team hasn’t won the Norm Smith Medal in the past 14 years, we’ll be backing in a couple of Richmond players as we have them winning the Grand Final. The obvious choice here is Dustin Martin who won it in 2017 and he’ll be our on top selection. He’s proven himself in big games time and time again and is clearly Richmond’s best and most influential player. His 23 votes in this year’s Brownlow Medal count was 12 clear of the closest Tiger in Bachar Houli, which shows that Martin is the most consistent standout player when his side is winning. Martin will likely get a lot of attention from tagger Matt De Boer, but we still expect him to be a real difference maker on Saturday. We’ll also have a little something on Tom Lynch at double figure odds. Lynch was sensational in the preliminary final and is more than capable of tearing a game apart with a big bag of goals when he’s in top form.
Also Backing: Tom Lynch $11
