It’s that time of year again, where we are taken on a picturesque virtual tour of some of the stunning sights France and neighbouring countries have to offer all while we watch some of the best endurance athletes in the world shine on their biggest stage. The 2018 Tour de France gets underway this Saturday night at 8pm AEST on SBS and we have you covered for the race with a full preview and betting tips below!
2018 Tour de France Betting Tips
The Race
The Race is set to be one of the most exciting Tour’s in recent history after some major changes and additions were made in the off-season. One major change leading into the three-week slog is that the number of riders per team has been reduced from 9 to 8. This means that each team’s top chance for the Yellow Jersey will have fewer support riders, which could contribute to some better one on one mountain duels between the likes of Chris Froome and Richie Porte.
The course will be one of the toughest in years. Not only do the riders have one individual time trial and one team trial to compete with, they also have the dreaded 181km Stage 9 from Arras Citadelle to Roubaix, which features the famous cobbled roads of the Paris-Roubaix race. The stage features over 21km of cobbled roads and could be the downfall of some major GC riders who have struggled on the surface in the past.
The race also features the shortest normal stage in the last thirty years in Stage 17 from Bargneres-de-Luchon to Saint-Lary-Soulan Col du Portet. At just 65km in length, riders might think it will be an easy day but with two category one climbs, and a Hors-category jammed into the small stage, riders will be climbing from the get go and will rarely stop.
To put the difficulty of this route in perspective; the average number of Hors-category climbs in the Tour over the past few decades has been seven, this race features nine.
The Contenders
While there are a lot of great riders in this year's race, there's only two that I would feel confident betting on. In my opinion, given they can both avoid crashing out in the early stages, they will be on the top two steps of the podium in Paris. We preview them both below.
Chris Froome
It’s been a storied past 12 months for one of the most successful cyclists of all time in Froome. After winning last year’s Tour de France, Froome went on to complete the Tour-Vuelta double by winning the Vuelta a Espana (Tour of Spain) in August-September. However, in December, the UCI announced that Froome had returned an adverse analytical finding for almost twice his allowed dose of salbutamol, an asthma medication.
Froome was not stripped of the title because of WADA rules that allow a compensation in findings to account for dehydration and urine concentration. However, it did mar the win amongst his peers and he has since been widely criticised by fellow cyclists.
Earlier this year, Froome competed in the 2018 Giro d’Italia (Tour of Italy) and won. He will now attempt to become just the seventh rider to win the Giro and the Tour de France in the same calendar year and with the Giro win he became just the third rider to hold all three Grand Tour titles simultaneously.
The three Grand Tour schedule over the past 12 months is a lot of riding for anyone to undertake, even someone as talented as Froome. The Brit wasn’t in the best form leading into the Giro and still managed to take the title, but there will be definite question marks over his fitness coming into this Tour.
Richie Porte
After surprising the cycling world with a standout performance in the Tour de France in 2015 as Froome’s teammate, Richie Porte moved to BMC at the start of the 2016 season, where he would now be the lead rider in hopes of winning his own yellow jersey. Porte finished 5th in 2016 and a crash in the early stages of 2017 derailed Australia’s best chance at winning a Tour since Cadel Evans nearly 10 years ago.
Porte comes into this year’s tour in great form, having placed 3rd at the Tour de Romandie in April before winning the Tour de Suisse last month. He’ll want to redeem himself after crashing out of last year’s race and at 33 he is entering the prime of his cycling career.
Froome’s biggest advantage this year will be the strength of the BMC team. Damiano Caruso, who finished 11th in last year’s Tour will be invaluable support to Porte in the mountains while the likes Teejay Van Garderen, Stefan Kung, Greg Van Avermaet and Simon Gerrans make up a top line team that should out perform Froome and Sky Racing in the team time trial in Stage 3.
As long as Porte stays upright, there’s no reason why he cant win this race, and at $5, he’s our pick to wear the Yellow Jersey into Paris in Stage 21.
Richie Porte to win
$5.00
Quick Bets
Team Classification
One team stands out this year in the team classification and that is Movistar. Contrary to most of the other teams who have just one or zero strong general classification riders, Movistar have three in Nairo Quintana, Alejandro Valverde and Mikel Landa. All three will be ‘team leaders’ and all three are capable of finishing in the top ten. Movistar to win the team classification is our best bet for the 2018 Tour de France.
Movistar team classification
$1.70
Finishing Riders
Due to the decreased numbers of team riders allowed, just 176 riders will start this year’s Tour instead of the 198 that have started in the previous seven editions. The highest number of finishing riders in that seven-year span was 174 while the lowest was 153. The average number of finishes in that time was just over 164, which is 82% of the field. If 82% of the field finish this year, which should be a high number given the difficulty of this route, it will yield 144 finishers.
Total finishers UNDER 146.5
$1.85
