One again Before You Bet is back with our rolling Brownlow Medal Tracker for the 2018 season. We’ll be providing comments for every game of the season, along with our vote predictions to help with your projections for the 2018 AFL season.
Our Brownlow predictions are one of the most popular aspects of the site with punters able to scoop huge profits using the information found in these pages. You’ll be able to stay up to date with our current Top 20 2018 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to every single round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can form a 'range' for each player (ie a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great incentives for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2018 Brownlow Round 5 Vote Predictions below!
2018 Brownlow Medal Predicted Votes – Round 5
Sydney 10.15.75 def by Adelaide 12.13.85
An injury-depleted Crows turned around their form from last week to record a shock win in Sydney. Skipper Taylor Walker overcame heavy criticism to lead from the front with 16 touches and four goals, while Paul Seedsman was the dominant midfielder with 26 disposals and a goal. Tom Doedee (25 disposals, 11 marks) and Rory Laird (30 disposals) controlled things from half-back while Rory Atkins was good with 24 touches and 3 goals. Isaac Heeney was a standout for the Swans with 19 disposals, 8 marks, 8 tackles and a goal).
Paul Seedsman – 3
Taylor Walker – 2
Rory Atkins - 1
St.Kilda 10.13.73 drew GWS 9.19.73
GWS might regret missing out on the win here as they could only manage a draw against the Saints. The ball was pretty evenly shared, and with no winner in the match, it makes predicting votes in this one really tricky. Brett Deledio is a chance for top votes with 29 disposals, 8 marks and 2 goals for the Giants. He was well supported by Callan Ward (29 disposals) and Stephen Coniglio (29 disposals, 9 tackles). Sebastian Ross was best for the Saints with 31 touches and 7 marks, while Jack Sinclair was good with 23 touches and 11 tackles.
Brett Deledio - 3
Callan Ward – 1
Stephen Coniglio – 1
Sebastian Ross – 1
Carlton 10.9.69 def by West Coast 10.19.79
Carlton were brave all day before eventually going down, but they arguably had the best players on the field. Patrick Cripps was outstanding with 34 disposals (19 contested) and 11 tackles. He was well supported by Kade Simpson (31 disposals, 10 marks) and Ed Curnow (25 disposals, 12 tackles). Sam Rowe was also stellar in defence, keeping Josh Kennedy to just 5 touches and one goal. Andrew Gaff (31 disposals, 2 goals) and Elliot Yeo (26 disposals, 11 tackles) were best for West Coast.
Patrick Cripps - 3
Kade Simpson - 2
Andrew Gaff - 1
Port Adelaide 7.8.50 def by Geelong 12.12.84
Joel Selwood won the medal for best on ground and is likely to pick up three votes for 29 disposals and 7 tackles, while Patrick Dangerfield (28 disposals, one goal) and George Horlin-Smith (26 disposals, 8 tackles) were also prominent. Ollie Wines was good for the Power with 29 disposals before hobbling off the field late in the game, while Robbie Gray (32 disposals, 7 tackles) also won plenty of the ball.
Joel Selwood - 3
Patrick Dangerfield - 1
George Horlin-Smith - 1
Ollie Wines - 1
Fremantle 16.12.108 def Western Bulldogs 8.6.54
Nat Fyfe was unstoppable in slippery conditions, racking up a career-high 43 disposals (21 contested), 13 clearances and a goal. He’ll pick up another 3 votes for sure, and with other favourites having some quieter games, Fyfe might be leading the pack after this round with three clear best on grounds this season. Might be worth a bet at $6 at Ladbrokes. Michael Walters was brilliant with 18 touches and 5 goals, while Lachie Neale (29 disposals) and big man Aaron Sandilands (53 hitouts) will fight out the minor vote.
Nat Fyfe – 3
Michael Walkers – 2
Lachie Neale - 1
North Melbourne 14.14.98 def Hawthorn 11.4.70
The Roos jumped out of the blocks and belted the Hawks in the first half, before holding on to record a big upset win. Early on it was big forwards Ben Brown (4 goals), Jarrad Waite (16 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) and Jack Ziebell (18 disposals, 7 tackles, 2 goals) who setup the victory, but the four-quarter performers will probably share the votes. Robbie Tarrant was a rock in defence with 20 disposals and 16 marks, while Scott Thompson was also good with 20 disposals and 11 marks. Ben Cunnington was solid in the midfield with 30 touches, while Ben Jacobs held gun Tom Mitchell to just 19 disposals while picking up the same number himself.
Robbie Tarrant - 3
Ben Cunnington - 2
Jack Ziebell – 0.5
Ben Jacobs – 0.5
Brisbane 10.11.71 def by Gold Coast 11.10.76
Touk Miller was the Marcus Ashcroft medallist but in a largely defensive effort so it will be interesting to see if that translates to the three votes. Miller kept Dane Zorko to just 10 disposals while going on to record 21 himself. Miller will also be remembered for a brilliant diving smother in the dying minutes that may have helped the Suns win the game. Brayden Fiorini was the leading ball winner for the Suns with 27 touches, 9 marks and 2 goals, while Alex Witherden was a standout for the Lions with 27 disposals and 14 marks.
Touk Miller - 3
Brayden Fiorini - 2
Alex Witherden - 1
Melbourne 8.8.56 def by Richmond 15.12.102
A tight tussle for three quarters was broken up in the last quarter as the Tigers ran away for a comfy victory. Kane Lambert was the best four quarter performer for Richmond with 29 disposals, 8 tackles and two goals. Bachar Houli, Shane Edwards and Dusty Martin were all solid contributors with 26 disposals apiece but that might not be enough for the reigning Brownlow medalist to get a vote. Max Gawn was a dominant force in the middle with a massive 56 hitouts, 16 disposals and 8 tackles, to simply destroy his opponent Toby Nankervis, and give Clayton Oliver (31 disposals) first use. Jesse Hogan was again good for the Dees with 22 disposals and two goals, while Jake Lever had his best game for Melbourne, shutting down Jack Riewoldt and picking up 18 touches himself.
Kane Lambert - 3
Max Gawn - 2
Shane Edwards - 1
Collingwood 14.17.101 def Essendon 7.10.52
Collingwood were far too good on ANZAC Day and should sweep the voting. Adam Treloar won the ANZAC Day medal for 34 disposals and two goals, although a lot of those possessions were when the contest was already won. Scott Pendlebury was influential early with 27 dispoals, while Steele Sidebottom had another great game with 25 touches and 3 goals and should again figure in the votes. Jordan De Goey was also good with 23 touches and a goal. The Essendon midfield of David Zaharakis (34 disposals), Brendon Goddard (33 disposals) and Zach Merrett (33 disposals) got a lot of the ball but they weren't damaging enough to get among the votes.
Adam Treloar - 3
Steele Sidebottom - 2
Scott Pendlebury - 1
Betting Note After Round 5
There are often Brownlow markets for who will lead after Round 5, so this is a good time to take a look at our leaderboard to make a note for those betting markets later in the year.
As you'll see below, we have Nat Fyfe picking up his third clear best on ground of the season, so we're pretty comfortable that he has 9 votes at this point. Stephen Coniglio may have voted in every game of the season so far, but some of those will be minor votes so he looks to have 9 votes at best, but perhaps less. Steele Sidebottom and Dustin Martin could have 9 votes if the umpires favoured their way and we got it wrong, but our guess is they are one or two votes behind at this point, along with Tom Mitchell who seems to have a pretty clear cut 8 votes at this point.
The conclusion to that is that you can feel confident backing Nat Fyfe to be leading after Round 5. He should be leading, or at worst, sharing the lead with Stephen Coniglio.
