Decent week in AFL betting tips last weekend as we hit on 4 of 9 bets with all four winners coming at odds of over $2. It takes us to a season tally of 14-11 on the season so far, one that I’ll be looking to improve on this week, starting with the Friday night clash between the Crows and Magpies at Adelaide Oval.
Be sure to check out the PuntingInDanger twitter account at @AFLBYB for live game updates and nonsensical footy commentary throughout the Round 4 action this weekend!
Adelaide and Collingwood get Round 4 of the AFL underway on Friday night from 7.50pm. Both teams had big wins in Round 3 as Collingwood downed Carlton in the round opener and the Crows comfortably handled the Saints at Etihad sans some key players.
It will be the first time Collingwood have strayed from the MCG in 2018, and what a difficult task it will be as they take on last year’s Grand Finalists in Adelaide, potentially the hardest place to play in the AFL at the moment. Luckily for the Magpies, Adeliade will be without a host of important players as both Matt and Brad Crouch, along with Alex Keath, Brodie Smith and Kyle Cheney are all battling injuries.
Collingwood aren’t without their injury concerns, however, as key forward Darcy Moore will remain on the sidelines this week but they could get key midfielders Josh Smith and Daniel Wells back for their 2018 debuts.
The Crows are still arguably the most dynamic team going forward in all of football, and that was prevalent on the weekend as they kicked 15 goals against the Saints and the quartet of Josh Jenkins, Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts and Mitch McGovern were all fantastic. Dealing with the height and strength of Adelaide’s forward line is a tough ask for any team, and Collingwood will be no exception with a relatively undersized back line.
TIP: Any player to kick 5 goals - $3.60 at Sportsbet
The area where the Magpies will have the slight advantage in this game and where it will need to be won is the midfield. No Crouch brothers for the Crows is a massive loss, especially against a midfield as stacked as Collingwood’s. The Maggies are ranked 1st in handballs per game, 3rd in possessions per game and 3rd in tackles per game and have the advantage of arguably the best hit out ruckman in the league at the moment in Brodie Grundy.
The likes of Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams will need to step up here if the Magpies are going to be competitive. They have both had quiet starts to the season and will need to prove themselves against an undermanned Crows midfield.
As much as I think Collingwood have a massive advantage in the midfield, I can’t get over the fact of how dominant Adelaide’s forward line has looked since the return of Taylor Walker in Round 2. They have too many options going forward and Collingwood lack the size to match up on them effectively, as most teams in the AFL do.
Adelaide start as 31.5-point favourites here and while I do think they’ll get the win, I think that margin is a touch high. I prefer them at the 1-39-point barrier here. Collingwood were really competitive against GWS in Round 2 and we can see this game playing out a similar way.
TIP: Adelaide to win by 1-39 - $2.20 at Sportsbet
