Tough week for AFL betting in Round 2 as we hit on just three of eight tips to take a season tally to 10 wins and 6 losses. We’ll look to bounce back and provide a winning week as we take a look at every game in Round 3 of the 2018 AFL season below!
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Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our full preview for the Carlton vs Collingwood game here!
Port Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
Port Adelaide sent a message to the rest of the league in Round 2, downing the Swans in Sydney by 23 points and announcing themselves as serious contenders for the 2018 Premiership. After trailing for all of the first half, Port Adelaide kicked 10 goals to 4 in the second half to steamroll past the Swans. Ollie Wines was ridiculous in the win, racking up 35 disposals, 19 of them contested and kicking a goal in the win.
Brisbane’s Round 2 game against Melbourne was eerily similar to their game against St Kilda in Round 1. They were competitive for parts of the game, but ultimately, too many skill errors resulted in turnovers which handed the Demons a 26-point win. Charlie Cameron was a shining light, racking up 16 disposals at 100% efficiency and booting 3 goals to take his season tally to 6.
Two teams on very different paths in 2018 here. Port Adelaide have gone all out in recruitment in search of their second premiership, while Brisbane are in serious rebuild mode. The Power start as massive 47.5-point favourites at home. If this game was in Brisbane I might side with the Lions at that line, but in Adelaide, I think this could be a blowout.
TIP: Port Adelaide -47.5 - $1.91 at Sportsbet
Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday 2.10pm AEST)
Both the Demons and Kangaroos boast a 1-1 record through the opening two rounds of play after claiming wins on the weekend. Melbourne were impressive in Brisbane, never really looking in doubt as they beat the Lions by 26 points. Jesse Hogan was fantastic in that game, racking up 22 touches and booting 5 goals while Clayton Oliver continues to impress in the midfield.
The Roos were possibly the surprise packet of the round. After rolling out a horror display in torrential rain in the Gold Coast in Round 1, they claimed a massive win over the Saints in a very ugly game. Neither team played exceptionally well, but it was 15 minutes of intense footy and superior foot skills that saw the Roos over the line. Ben Brown was much better in the perfect Etihad conditions than he was in Round 1, booting six goals while Jarrad Waite was a beast in the hair, taking 13 marks.
The Roos start as 20.5-point underdogs here in what should be a really interesting clash. If Melbourne want to prove they have taken the next step in their development, these are the type of games they need to win comfortably. I give Melbourne a slight edge but I think the Roos are a grinding team and will be able to keep the margin fairly close here.
TIP: Melbourne to win by 1-39 - $2.10 at Ladbrokes
Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
Tom Lynch was a beast last weekend against Carlton, kicking 8 goals and leading the Suns to a great win. They are one of just four teams sitting at 2-0, although they have played a couple of fairly average teams in the Kangaroos and Blues. They would have had a great chance to go 3-0 at home on Saturday afternoon, but unfortunately, they’ve had to sell the home game to the Dockers because of the Commonwealth Games.
The Dockers claimed their first win of the season in Round 2, downing the Bombers in Perth by 16 points. Nat Fyfe was fantastic in the win, picking up 29 disposals while Matt Taberner booted four goals. The Dockers looked great at the new Optus Stadium, and will be extremely happy to be playing an extra one there this week, even if it means the club will take a massive cash hit.
Fremantle start as 16-point favourites here, and I have to side with them given the game is at Optus. I think it will be close game, so the 1-39 margin seems good value here.
TIP: Fremantle to win by 1-39 - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Sydney Swans vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
Game of the round in my opinion sees the Swans hosting the Giants at the SCG on Saturday night. Tough stretch for the Swannies, who had a home game against Port Adelaide last weekend and now face another side with top three potential in the Giants. Luckily for them, it’ll be at home again, where they play the SCG dimensions so well. Lance Franklin was terrific against Port Adelaide once again and the Swans could be buoyed by the return on Sam Reid to the forward line this week.
GWS gave the Magpies a slight sniff throughout the game but ultimately closed the door on them in the final quarter, winning by 16 points as Stephen Coniglio racked up 27 touches and 3 goals. The ruck department continues to be a bit of an issue for the Giants, as Rory Lobb was monstered by Brodie Grundy on the weekend. Toby Greene should return to the line-up after being a late withdrawal last weekend but the loss of Tom Scully for the season to a broken ankle will be tough. The injury could finally open the door for Ryan Griffen to break back into the side, which should be interesting.
Really tough game to call here, usually one I’d stay away from but the Swans were poor in the last quarter and a half last weekend, allowing the Power to run over the top of them. Should be a great battle with so many contested ball winners in the middle but I like the Giants value here, even away from home.
TIP: Greater Western Sydney to win - $2.17 at CrownBet
St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
It was a dark day for the Saints in Round 2 as they went down to North Melbourne by 52 points on Good Friday. It sets a sombre tone with fans for the rest of the Saints season, who were hopeful that they could finally take the next step and become a finals team. Now, they could be on the brink of going 1-6 as their next five games come against Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn and Melbourne.
Adelaide claimed their first win of the season in Round 2, downing the Tigers in the Grand Final replay. They lost star midfielder Matt Crouch in the process, who will be out for at least three weeks with a hamstring injury. Their offence did start to click against the Tigers with the inclusion of Taylor Walker and the dominance of Josh Jenkins.
Playing at Etihad is the only factor I can think of that could keep the Saints in this game, however, their performance at their home stadium last weekend doesn’t inspire much assurance. Crows start as 20-point favourites here and call it dumb confidence, but I actually think the Saints are great value. They always seem to get up for these marquee night games at Etihad Stadium. Last year they claimed massive wins over GWS on a Friday night at Etihad and Richmond on a Saturday night. I think they can at least cover the 20.5-point line here.
TIP: St Kilda +20.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
In my opinion, the Hawks have been the standout team of 2018 so far. Knocking off Collingwood in Round 1 at the MCG was no small feat but to back it up with a fantastic win over rivals Geelong in Round 2 really gave me confidence in my pre-season tip to include them in the top eight. If Alistair Clarkson isn’t the best coach in the league, I don’t know who is. Tom Mitchell continues to be the most ferocious contested ball winner in the league, having already racked up 50 through the first two games.
The Tigers fought hard in Adelaide but ultimately went down to the Crows, unable to stop the twin towers of Tex Walker and Josh Jenkins. Alex Rance was slightly exposed by the brute strength of Jenkins early in the game, but fortunately for the Tigers, Hawthorn don’t posses a forward of that mould. Dustin Martin continues to be the sole barometer for the Tigers. They really way too much on him and the fact that he had 25 touches and kicked 5 goals against the Crows and Richmond still lost is really worrying.
Dion Prestia could return to the Tigers side this weekend which will add some much-needed grunt to their midfield, however, I just think the Hawks are a more complete outfit. They boast star players on every line, and the Tigers rely too much on too few. James Frawley will be back for the Hawks and should do a job on Jack Riewoldt. I love the Hawks value here.
TIP: Hawthorn to win - $2.36 at CrownBet
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
What a fall from grace its been for the Dogs. A year and a half ago they were hoisting the premiership cup and now they look like an absolute rabble. They were dominated by GWS in Round 1 and last weekend wasn’t much better as they went down to West Coast by 51 points at home. They are desperate for key players at either ends of the ground, and possibly even more desperate for some contested ball winners in the middle.
The Bombers captured a great Round 1 win over Adelaide but couldn’t win in Perth against Fremantle on the weekend. They are a different side when they get to lay on the fast paced surface at Etihad, and should be able to score freely on a lacklustre Dogs defence here.
Jack Redpath will add some much-needed structure to the Dogs forward line this weekend, but I just cant get past the lack of Dogs key defenders. We tipped Jack Darling to run rampant on the Dogs last weekend and that’s what he did, taking 11 marks, booting 4 goals and handing off another couple. Scott Lycett was also dominant for the Eagles, which has me really worried about what the combination of Hooker, Daniher and Stewart will be capable of on Sunday. Dons comfortably for me.
TIP: Essendon -16.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet (Best Bet)
West Coast Eagles vs Geelong Cats (Sunday 4.40pm AEST)
Optus Stadium will get its first weekend double header in Round 3 as West Coast host Geelong on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles were fantastic against the Dogs in Round 2, kicking 18 goals on the way to a 51-point win. The young contingent of Liam Ryan, Daniel Venables and Jake Waterman are arguably the most exciting in the league and all played a big role in the win on the weekend.
Geelong fought back from a big deficit in the final quarter of their game against the Hawks but ultimately couldn’t get over the line as Hawthorn held on for a one-point win. Interestingly, Patrick Dangerfield played 52% of game time in the forward line as he regains match fitness but was arguably the turning point in the game when he was unleashed into the midfield in the final quarter. Gary Ablett was also fantastic, racking up 35 touches, 15 of them contested.
Extremely tough game to call here in my opinion. The Cats start as slight 3.5 point favourites but given how easily the Hawks were able to score on them last weekend, their defence poses a real issue. Young Zach Guthrie was forced to line-up on Jarryd Roughead last weekend, who was arguably the difference in the Hawks win. Not sure how the Cats are going to handle the size and strength of the Eagles forward line. Should be another high scoring game which I think the Eagles win at home.
TIP: West Coast to win - $2.05 at Ladbrokes
