Unfortunately for PuntingInDanger and fans, we hit on just two of eight bets in Round 9 of the AFL season! Unbelievably, three of our line bets lost by a combined total of under 20 points as we had..
- Roos 1-39 - won by 43
- Power -42.5 - won by 40
- Saints +20.5 - lost by 25
We’ll be looking to put in a better performance this weekend, and we’ll definitely be hoping for some more luck as we preview every game in Round 10 of the AFL, which gets underway Friday ngiht with a great clash between Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs.
Remember, only the eight games this weekend as Gold Coast and Port Adelaide have the bye after their trip to China!
Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs (Friday 7.50pm AEST)
See our full standalone preview for the Friday night clash between the Pies and the Dogs here!
Richmond vs St Kilda (Saturday 1.45pm AEST)
Richmond suffered their second loss of the season on the weekend as they went down to the Eagles in Perth by 47 points. The tall timber up forward in Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy proved to be too much for the Tigers to handle as they allowed the pair to kick nine goals. Luckily for the Tigers, they’ll get a relatively easy bounce back match against the Saints this weekend, and after a gruelling trip to Perth, of course Richmond are back at home for five of their next six matches.
I wont get into how unfair I think the scheduling is this year, otherwise this article would be a few pages long, however, the fact of the matter is Richmond are elite at the MCG, and when you get to play 15 of your 22 matches there plus probably some ‘away’ finals there, it helps. It’ll certainly help this weekend against the Saints, who they punished in the final round of the home and away season last year by 51 points.
Shaun Grigg, Dustin Martin and Jacob Townsend were fantastic on that day and the Tigers should be up and about again on the weekend as they look to bounce back from their second loss. The Saints have been ‘better’ in their last two games, but still have a 29-point average losing margin in those two contests. I think the Tigers cover but I’m staying away from the line here and looking more towards the total score. The last two games between these two clubs have totalled over 200 points and with no rain forecast for Melbourne (yet) on Saturday, I think they clear the 163.5 line.
TIP: Total points OVER 163.5 - $1.88 at CrownBet
Brisbane vs Sydney (Saturday 4.35pm AEST)
Sydney finally did what I have been waiting for them to do all season in Round 9, which was to come out and absolutely run over the top of a lesser side. The 59-point win over the Dockers was their first winning margin of over 30 points for the season so far, and the Sydney stars looked in ominous touch as Josh Kennedy and Jake Lloyd were superb and Lance Franklin returned to the line-up with a bang.
Brisbane finally captured their first win of the AFL season on the weekend as they downed the Hawks by 56 points at home. After a horror week in front of goal in Round 8, Eric Hipwood bounced back to dominate the game, kicking 4.3 while midfielders Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko were once again standouts.
The Win will definitely give the lions some confidence, and they’ll be keen to be back at the Gabba again this weekend. Their midfield combo along with arguably the best ruckman in the league in Stefan Martin is a handful for any team. Their issue, however, is depth. They probably don’t have the depth to run with the Swans here and 23.5 points seems a little low even after the stellar effort their turned in last weekend.
TIP: Sydney -23.5 - $1.92 at CrownBet
Geelong vs Carlton (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
It’s been extremely hard to get a gauge on Geelong’s season so far. They have turned in some excellent performances against the likes of Port Adelaide away from home, GWS and Collingwood. Then they have served up some performances like they did on the weekend, going down to the Bombers by 34 points at the MCG. The Cats look to finally be sorting out most of their injury problems but are still without Daniel Menzel and Cam Guthrie.
With the Brisbane win on the weekend, Carlton are now on the bottom of the ladder but have something to look forward to as the Curnow brothers should return to the line-up this weekend. Patrick Cripps has been playing on another level for the Blues but has failed to receive any real support in the midfield so far this year.
Geelong start as 50-point favourites here and while the last two meets was a 65 point blowout in favour of the Cats, their game against Essendon doesn’t inspire much confidence. They are, however, down at GMHBA Stadium for this clash, where they play extremely well. Hate how the Cats played last weekend but love that they are at home, cant find any value here.
TIP: No bet
Greater Western Sydney vs Essendon (Saturday 7.25pm AEST)
The Bombers were fantastic in their win over Geelong on the weekend as they finally displayed some of the raw talent that we all know they possess. Shaun McKernan was fantastic in the win, kicking four goals while David Zaharakis, Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppel continued to shoulder the midfield load for the Bombers. However, it was defender Cale Hooker that was the standout on the weekend, taking 11 marks, most of them interceptions as he completely shut down the Geelong attack.
The Giants can’t buy a win at the moment. They have lost their last three games in a row and currently have a worrying injury list. It could improve this weekend, however, as Josh Kelly looks certain to return to the line-up after a prolonged groin injury, however, Phil Davis, Matt de Boer, Brett Deledio, Toby Greene and Tom Scully will all miss this weekend.
Luckily for the Giants, they do have one of the deeper rosters in the AFL, and they will definitely welcome the return to Spotless Stadium this weekend. The main thing I look for when assessing the Giants is the weather conditions. They rely so heavily on crisp ball movement and precise skills that any chance of wind or rain severely hinders them. Perfect conditions for footy in Sydney on Sunday have me thinking the Giants will bounce back here.
TIP: Greater Western Sydney by 1-39 - $2.10 at CrownBet
Hawthorn vs West Coast (Sunday 1.10pm AEST)
Great matchup here between the Hawks and Eagles at Etihad Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles moved into clear first place on the ladder with a win over the Tigers in Round 9, smashing last years premiers by 47 points in Perth. Hard to faulter any part of the Eagles game at the moment, as all three phases of the game look to be running like a well-oiled machine. The forward line has been highly talked about so far this season but it’s the form of the midfield and in particular Elliot Yeo that really gets me excited about the Eagles.
The Hawks were disappointing against the Lions in Brisbane on the weekend. Tom Mitchell was once again fantastic, racking up 46 touches in the loss, but ultimately, they lacked the ability to stop the Lions from surging forward and taking marks inside 50. That’ll be a real problem against the Eagles, who take more marks inside 50 than any team in the competition.
The West Coast midfield could get even stronger this weekend with the return of Luke Shuey, but even without him I think this 6.5 line is a bit of an insult to West Coast, especially when the game isn’t even at the MCG where you’d think the Hawks would be more of a chance. This is my best bet of the weekend.
TIP: West Coast -6.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet (Best Bet)
Melbourne vs Adelaide (Sunday 3.20pm AEST)
Melbourne extended their winning streak to four games on the weekend and moved into third position on the ladder with a massive 109-point win over Carlton. If any team has been able to somewhat replicate the Tigers game plan that won them the premiership last season it has been Melbourne with elite pressure and a host of talented small forwards. Jake Melksham was fantastic on the weekend, booting 5 goals and racking up 21 touches in the big win over the Blues.
Adelaide claimed a comfortable win in trying conditions against the Bulldogs on Friday night. Eddie Betts was the standout performer in the rain, kicking four goals to almost singlehandedly outscore the Bulldogs. I wouldn’t say the wet weather conditions suit the Crows by any means, as it takes away a lot of the threat of their tall forwards, however, seeing them dismantle the Bulldogs regardless was ominous.
Melbourne start as slight favourites, but this is really a 50-50 in my opinion. I’d give the slight edge to either team if they were playing at their home stadium, however, the fact this game is being played at Traeger Park in the Northern Territory really throws things out of whack. At the very least we know its going to be perfect conditions for footy in Alice Springs, so I’m backing the overs here.
TIP: Total points OVER 182.5 - $1.85 at Ladbrokes
Fremantle vs North Melbourne (Sunday 4.40am AEST)
Interesting little clash between the Dockers and Kangaroos in Perth to round out Round 10 on Sunday afternoon. North impressed yet again on the weekend with a win over the Giants to move to 5-4 on the season and currently sit inside the top eight. Ben Brown and Jarrad Waite stamped themselves as an elite forward combo on the weekend, kicking 9 goals between them and Brown currently leads the Coleman race with 31 through 9 games.
Fremantle were beaten comfortably by Sydney on the weekend but still have a decent record at 4-5 and can put some pressure on the top eight with a home win on the weekend. Nat Fyfe continued his good form with another big game on the weekend, but help is limited at Freo currently.
Still not 100% sold on the Roos, although you can’t question their intensity and effort week in week out. Normally you’d think rain would favour North Melbourne and their hardnosed midfielders, however, I think it’s the opposite. The big forwards, particularly Brown, need good conditions to dominate, which is why they love playing at Etihad and why they were comfortably beaten by the Suns in Round 1 when Brown was kept to no marks, no goals and just four disposals. Rain about in Perth on Sunday has me favouring the Dockers here.
TIP: Fremantle -2.5 - $1.92 at CrownBet
