The 2018 AFL season is finally here! As standard, the season kicks off Thursday night with the Richmond Tigers hosting the Carlton Blues in the opener. If you're looking for our preview and betting tips for every game of Round 1 this weekend, you can catch them below.
PuntingInDanger has you covered throughout the 2018 AFL season with weekly tips as well as continuing our AFL Fantasy Team of the Week for the Saturday slates!
Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues (Thursday 7.25pm AEDT)
Click here for a full preview of Richmond vs Carlton
Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows (Friday 7.50pm AEDT)
Essendon has been the talk of the town in the off-season after securing some high prize recruits in the likes of Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad. After finishing 7th last year, many have slated them to take the next step in 2018, and they get their opportunity in Round 1 against last years minor premiers, the Adelaide Crows. Essendon were beaten comfortably in Round 1 of the JLT Series, going down to Richmond by 93 points before bouncing back to beat the Cats by four points in Round 2.
The Crows were 10-point winners over Fremantle in Round 1 of the JLT but went down to the Power in the second round by 26 points. They of course lost young star defender Jake Lever in the off season but will be buoyed by the arrival of veteran Bryce Gibbs, who should add a heap of class and experience to the half back line. The Crows will be without star midfielder Brad Crouch for the opening 6-8 weeks of the season through an abdominal injury while skipper Taylor Walker will miss Round 1 against the Bombers due to a foot injury.
The Crows start as favourites here, and rightfully so after a great season last year. However, the departure of Lever will leave a big hole in defence and with no Alex Keith in Round 1 due to injury, the Crows are very short down back. Joe Daniher is ready to take the next step this year and I think he could get off the chain at Etihad Friday night. I love the value in the Dons here.
TIP: Essendon to win - $2.05 at Sportsbet
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday 3.35pm AEDT)
The Saints heartbreakingly missed out on the finals by just one game last year and will be looking to go one better this season. Unfortunately, they’ll have to do it without some of their champion veterans in Nick Reiwoldt and Leigh Montagna, who both called time on their careers at the end of last season. They picked some exciting youngsters in Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield in the national draft, both of whom look set to line-up against the Lions on the weekend.
The Lions will also look to improve on a disappointing 2017, where they finished last on the AFL ladder. Once again, the bulk of their productivity will need to come from a few elite midfielders in Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko, allow the departure of Tom Rockliff will be a massive blow. Brisbane welcome Hawthorn veteran Luke Hodge to the team while Eric Hipwood looks ready to become an elite forward in 2018.
Many think the Saints will actually be on the decline in 2018, and their form in the JLT Series was nothing to right home about. However, I think the opposite. The inclusions of two top ten draft picks, who both seem ready made should bolster their stocks, not to mention getting some key players back from long term injury in David Armitage, Paddy McCartin and Hugh Goddard. I expect a decent year from the Saints, starting with a good win over Brisbane at Etihad.
TIP: St Kilda -24.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Port Adelaide Power vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday 4.35pm AEDT)
Port Adelaide had a very busy off season to say the least. They added three recruits in the primes of their career in Tom Rockliff, Jack Watts and Steven Motlop, looking to improve on their 2017 where they finished 5th on the ladder. I think they’ll be the big movers in 2018 and have them finishing very high on the ladder. Their mix of hard nosed midfielders in Rockliff and Ollie Wines combined with the silky skill of Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard should provide one of the most damaging midfields in the competition, while Charlie Dixon proved he is capable of being an elite forward last season.
Fremantle lost in Round 1 of the JLT Series before decimating West Coast in a preseason derby in Round 2. There was a fairly big turn over in the off season for the Dockers as they waved goodbye to regular best 22 players in Zac Dawson, Jon Griffin, Lachie Weller, Harley Balic and Hayden Crozier. They welcomed some key players in the likes of Nathan Wilson from GWS, Brandon Matera from the Gold Coast and the exciting prospect Andrew Brayshaw from the draft.
Fremantle should be an exciting team to watch in 2018 with the youth and pace of the Hill brothers, Michael Walter and Nat Fyfe, however, I think the 26-point line in favour of the Power is a bit of an insult to them. Freo were a bottom five side last season and Port Adelaide got much better this season. Should be a big win for the Power.
TIP: Port Adelaide -26.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday 7.25pm AEDT)
Two teams who really struggled in 2017 will face off in Round 1 as the Suns host the Kangaroos on Saturday night. The Suns will embark on their first season without marquee player Gary Ablett but were compensating for his departure in the form of some quality draft picks. I think it will be another rebuilding year for the Suns, but at least they can do it without the constant questions surrounding the possible departure of Ablett this year.
The Kangaroos are in a similar position and will see 2018 as a rebuilding year. Lachie Hansen, Sam Gibson, Andrew Swallow and Lindsay Thomas depart the club, all replaced by draftees. I see both of these teams finishing low on the ladder this year, so it’s hard to get a read on this game and the bookies agree.
The two teams start as exact $1.90 favourites at most betting agencies and given they face it round one, it’s almost impossible to pick a winner here. I’m giving the slightest of edges to the Gold Coast given the home field advantage, but not super confident here.
TIP: No Bet
Hawthorn vs Collingwood (Saturday 7.25pm AEDT)
Another really even matchup on Saturday night sees the Hawks hosting the Magpies at the MCG from 7.25pm. Both teams come into the 2018 season with an air of unknown with some experts having them both in the eight as others have them down in the bottom four or five teams in the league. The Pies were fairly quiet over the offseason, adding some pieces through the draft but will go into the 2018 season with the same core.
Hawthorn parted ways with some of their veterans in Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson last year and added some youth through the draft. Much of their fortunes will rely on availability this year, as injuries to some key players in Jarryd Roughead, Jaeger O’Meara and Cyril Rioli derailed the majority of their 2017 season.
Really tough game to call here, while they finished low on the ladder last year, the Pies boast one of the best midfields in the comp, making them a threat in any game. They’ll be without some key players for Round 1 though, as Jamie Elliot, Jordan De Goey, Alex Fasolo, Tyson Goldsack and Levi Greenwood are all battling injuries. We think the Hawks take this one in a close game.
TIP: Hawthorn to win - $1.83 at Ladbrokes
Greater Western Sydney vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday 1.10pm AEDT)
A couple of years on from their thrilling preliminary final matchup, the Giants and Bulldogs will face off in the season opener from Sydney on Sunday afternoon. The Western Bulldogs will be looking to return to the top eight after a but of a premiership hangover last season saw them miss out. Fairly high turnover for the Dogs this year as Matthew Boyd, Robert Murhpy, Jake Stringer, Stewart Crameri and Travis Cloke all depart. Jackson Trengrove will be a great pickup from the Power while eyes will be on exciting rookie Aaron Naughton.
As they have nearly every year of their existence, GWS lost a bunch of players for different factors. Steve Johnson, Shane Mumford and Tendai Mzungu all called time on their career while Nathan Wilson, Matt Kennedy and Devon Smith all sought greener pastures. I still have no doubt that they will finish very high if not top of the ladder as their depth is arguably still the best in the league.
The Giants start 17-point favourites here, which I think is a little low given they are at home. People might be too confident that the Dogs will return to their 2016 form this year, which I’m not certain of. The Fogs are light on for defenders with Marcus Adams and Dale Morris both out for the first half of the season which spells trouble against Jon Patton, Jeremy Cameron and Rory Lobb. I think the Giants win comfortably here.
TIP: Greater Wester Sydney -17.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats (Sunday 3.20pm AEDT)
The Cats made the biggest move of the offseason, acquiring Gary Ablett from the Suns in attempt to bolster their already dominant midfield. There were some doubts over whether Ablett would suit up for the Cats against Melbourne, but he has recently been cleared to play, although running mate Patrick Dangerfield is still battling injury. Dangerfield will be a game time decision most likely, as the 2016 Brownlow medallist is battling a hamstring injury.
Melbourne the trendy pick in 2018. Many experts have them going as high as the top four, but if I’m honest, I don’t see them improving that much. Sure they picked up a quality defender in Jake Lever from the Crows, but were still an extremely inconsistent team last year, and I cant see one player changing that.
Very even in the betting market here as both teams start at equal $1.90 odds. Geelong have won their last two games against Melbourne, including a massive 111 point win in Round 23 of 2016. Even without Dangerfield on Sunday, which isn’t yet certain, we think the Cats will be too strong.
TIP: Geelong to win - $1.90 at Sportsbet
West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans (Sunday 7.10pm AEDT)
The final match of the round sees West Coast hosting Sydney in the first match at the brand-new Optus Stadium. It’s set to be an exciting one for the Eagles, who embark on a new era at their state of the art stadium. It could be a rebuilding year on the field for the Eagles, however, as a bunch of core players exit in Matt Priddis, Sam Mitchell, Sam Butler and Drew Petrie.
The Swans are ramping up for another crack at the premiership, and as they have so often since the turn of the century, have a list capable of going the distance. They were relatively quiet during the offseason and will back their stacked team to get the job done in 2018. A dominant midfield consisting of Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker and Isaac Heeney combined with one of the better spines in the league has them right at the pointy end of contenders for me.
The Swans start as 17-point favourites here, but let’s not forget the horror start they got off to last season, losing their first six matches in a row before finishing the season in a flurry. We think the Eagles keep this nice and close, especially in front of a home crowd, and potentially even cause an upset.
TIP: West Coast +17.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet
