Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Kingston Town Classic Day at Ascot – the final Group 1 of the Perth Racing Carnival.
We have a nine-race card with the rail in the inside position, so it will be interesting to see if the early races favour those on the outside, given the inside of the track hasn’t been raced on for a couple of weeks.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Trap For Fools
Best Value: Race 8 Achernar Star
Race 1
Nice little race to start off and a competitive one at that. STREET FURY returned with a very solid win in easier grade than this but it was over 1000m and he carried a big weight, so dropping down to 55kg and stepping up to 1200m should see him able to handle this. He made the same step up in distance last prep when second up and he bolted in. Pike sticks and he looks the one to beat. HARD OF HEART paraded relatively poorly last start and managed to run 3rd. He sweated up badly but I’d probably expect him to do similar given it’s going to be 37 degrees in Perth today. He draws wide but he’s got the ability to be very competitive. ARRUM BOY comes out of some very strong form races behind the likes of Ocean Jewel and Truly Belong, so from the good draw he should be competitive. DAINTY PAT is first up here and did run 3rd to Money Maher last prep, which is obviously good form. RESISTANCE and RUBIA MISS could go close if they managed to find their best form.
TIP: Street Fury
Race 2
Going to stick with two horses I was on last start in the same race, who were both beaten on the day by $91 shot PUSH TO PASS, who lines up again here. I’ve got no real knock on PUSH TO PASS here, other than the fact it’s never won third up from a spell. MOSSERATTI was my top selection in the race last start, and from the good draw here, I think he deserves another chance. He’s fourth up here, and three of his four career wins have come after his third run into a prep. Should enjoy a good run and $5 is a price I can entertain. FIRST AFFAIR was the other horse I was on last start but she was ridden very poorly and pulled up with a slow recovery. Prior to that her form was very good, including a win over Trap For Fools and a 2nd placing behind Properantes. Draws awkwardly again in barrier 7 of 9 here but she’s worth another chance at each way odds. NOT AGAIN KEN is another last-start winner. He’s never put two together but gets his chance here. You could make a genuine case for most runners here in an open race.
TIP: Mosseratti / First Affair EW
Race 3
CELEBRITY DREAM was perfectly suited last start with the way the track was playing on the day. You needed to be off the rail and about 5-6 horses wide, and she drew barrier 10 and unleashed a dominant sprint down the outside. Meanwhile, TOP OF THE CLASS was held up until the 100m mark on the inside before flashing through late to grab 3rd. I think the run was very good and with Celebrity Dream drawing barrier 1 here, she’s going to need plenty of luck. That’s not to say Top of The Class won’t need luck as well, but I’d rather take the price about him than $1.80 about Celebrity Dream. I expect her to get out to around even money. AWESOME AS looks the value at $13 after a dominant win at Bunbury last start.
TIP: Top Of The Class
Race 4
Two horse race here between GAULOIS and TRULY BELONG. Gaulois ran a great race in the WA Guineas last start when having to come from a long way back in the field. He did a good job to run 4th and is much better suited here from barrier 2. Expect him to go forward and be very hard to run down, but also expect him to sweat up badly pre-race with the hot weather, just as he did on Railway Stakes Day. TRULY BELONG paraded nicely last start and was an enormous race when coming from the back of the field to get close to Ocean Jewel. From barrier 1 she may be locked away on the rail but she’s an immensely talented filly and with the possibility of her box-seating, she goes on top.
TIP: Truly Belong
Race 5
Very interesting race. GET OVER IT responded to the blinkers going back on last start with a good win over track and distance, but he had everything go his way in that race and while he’s a smart type with every chance once again, I’d be hesitant to jump into the $3.50 here. REMEMBER BERLIN finished 3rd in that same race last start, but was held up the majority of the straight and Aaron Mitchell had plenty of horse under him. He’ll need to produce a good ride here from barrier 10, but provided he’s not caught wide like he was two starts ago, he should go very close today. MY GREEK BOY is first up here but has a poor record at the track and I’ll have to take him on due to that. HOBART JONES is another one that’s first up but if he brought his best form he’d be competitive. He must be some query, however, given he came off a long layoff last preparation and showed little, and was scratched from a race a couple of weeks ago. CLASSICAL PRINCE was sound first up and generally improves second up so can be included at double figure odds.
TIP: Remember Berlin
Race 6
This is an absolute nightmare of a race with about seven genuine chances. Importantly, the tempo looks absolutely murderous here, but it’s hard to know what will kick on to lead. Going to stick with SATURIA here who brings some of the strongest form to the race with runner-up finishes behind the likes of Epic Grey and Ocean Jewel last preparation. She’s first up here from a 70-day spell and has trialled well in the lead up to her resumption, but she typically likes to lead and she’ll find some stiff competition for that spot here. That’s the query but at the $8 I’m prepared to back her. The pace is sure to set it up for REGAL MOON, who flashed home first up behind Salubrious before going down as $1.35 favourite at Bunbury last start. That was only in a field of six runners, so with a big field and a genuine tempo, she should be able to hit the line hard. WHERE’S WALLY has some terrific juvenile form but has been off the scene for 385 days now. This is a hot race to contest first up from that long off the track and his price looks a touch under the odds for mine. SCALPEL has been set for this race first up but the barrier hasn’t done him any favours. From 15 he will jump and go forward, as he has done in every start so far. KRAMDEN was good first up but had no luck last start. From barrier 1 it should kick up and isn’t the worst at $18. ARAFURA and MY LAINA both chances.
TIP: Saturia EW
Race 7
Clear race in two between TRAP FOR FOOLS and FALCON CREST, who ran the quinella in the Tattersall’s Cup last start. Falcon Crest gets a 2kg weight swing on Trap For Fools today which will help to turn the tables on the 0.75L margin last start, but I still think Trap For Fools has what it takes to win again here. He’ll bounce straight to the front and give them something to chase once again and they just struggle to catch him every single time. I’d like to see Whyte go a bit earlier for home than he did last start, but either way I’ve got him a clear top pick.
TIP: Trap For Fools
Race 8
I’d suggest listening to the podcast above for an in-depth look at the Kingston Town Classic, but I’ve got IT’S SOMEWHAT on top here at the $6 mark. I just like that price better than the $2.80 on offer for BLACK HEART BART. It’s Somewhat comes out of a seriously hot form race behind Tosen Stardom and Happy Clapper last start in the Emirates Stakes, which is genuine Group 1 WFA form. He’s been set for this race all preparation and I like the fact they’ve spaced his run with a trial in between instead of running in the Railway. Barrier 11 doesn’t look ideal but there looks a distinct lack of pace on here outside the Railway winner Great Shot, so he should be able to get a relatively soft run on pace. BLACK HEART BART was enormous in the Railway Stakes, lumping 59kg to go down by just a nose. It would have been a weight-carrying record, and on face value, he looks a weighted moral here with every horse he beat in the Railway significantly worse off at the weights today. But barrier 1 could prove tricky for him as I see him being three pairs back on the fence, at the very best. I’m not convinced about him at 1800m and if he has to sit and sprint from barrier 1 then he may be found out. Then again, he may prove to be the moral he looks on paper. I was keen on ALL OUR ROADS before the barrier draw, but with barrier 14 he’s sure to go back, which all but ends his chances here in my opinion. LIFE LESS ORDINARY is another that didn’t tackle the Railway Stakes, and from barrier 5 he should get absolutely every chance. I’d expect him to go very close and he looks a value runner in the race. Railway Stakes winner GREAT SHOT absolutely shouldn’t be discounted and he still looks over the odds. He look to find the lead once again and Scales Of Justice proved last year that the rise in weight may not matter. Then we get down to the three-year-olds. PERFECT JEWEL profiles very similarly to Perfect Reflection who won this race a couple of years ago. From barrier 9 she looks to get a very similar run to what she got last start when winning the WA Guineas. But I thought the run of ACHERNAR STAR was particularly impressive in the Guineas, after being shuffled back to nearly last on the turn before motoring home on the inferior part of the track. With the soft draw here I think he can be a major player.
TIP: It’s Somewhat / Achernar Star EW
Race 9
Keen on two here. The first is WRINKLY who has sped along in the lead at his past two starts and only been run down late by some handy types in La Mouline and Gunnago. He goes up in weight but down in class here, and from barrier 1 he’ll jump straight to the front and give them something to chase. GOMER WIPPLE looked terrific in the yard first up and ran accordingly, dead-heating for first to break his first up hoodoo. He normally improves significantly second up (two wins from three starts) so I’d be surprised if he didn’t go close here. He’s a nice price at $8. CRUACHAN was the horse he dead-heated with but he draws poorly today. I wouldn’t rule him out based on that alone though, and he should be competitive once again. ROGANELLA will try and bounce back after failing in the WA Guineas last start. This horse will sweat up terribly with the hot weather predicted. MY GRACE has a terrible record at the track so prepared to risk her here. GREAT AGAIN and FRIARESQUE included.
TIP: Wrinkly / Gomer Wipple EW
QUADDIE
1, 3, 4, 9, 13, 14, 15
2, 8
1, 2, 3, 8, 13, 15
2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 13
$100 = 19.84%
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
