The 2017 Hong Kong Classic Mile, formerly at Group 1 level but changed this year to a restricted race, is the first race of the four-year-old Classic Series which also includes the Classic Cup and the Hong Kong Derby. We offer Hong Kong racing betting tips for the feature race which takes place on Sunday, January 22nd at 8:10pm AEDT
This year's crop of four-year-olds looks particularly strong, and while the Derby is the ultimate aim for most of these, this race is set to be a belter.
There's probably a minimum of six horses that hold genuine winning claims here. In terms of the tempo, it seems as if the race should be run at a moderate tempo with Winner's Way and Circuit Hassler the two most likely to lead, although John Moore has said Rodrico will go forward from gate 14 which should inject some early speed.
There's three that stand out here for mine and I'm happy to be backing BEAUTY GENERATION at the $4.50 fixed available, though we could see that price drift. This horse, formerly Montaigne in Australia, has had two starts in Hong Kong. First up he ran a cracker over 1400m with a big weight, before backing that up with a solid win over 1600m last start. He loomed up like he was going to win by 5 lengths but he peaked on his run and seemed to wait for another horse to challenge before hanging on to win. He also lost a plate when galloped on and cut his heel, so there was plenty of merit in the win. The stable has said all along that he needs the racing to get him fit, and if he has taken improvement from last start then he should be right in the finish again here. Gets a weight swing on everything he beat last start, and importantly he draws perfectly in gate 5 which is an important factor in him going on top.
The favourite is RAPPER DRAGON and he is obviously the one I'm most wary of. This horse was meant to run in the Group 1's on International Day back in December but problems in the lead up forced him out. Last prep he beat the likes of Beauty Only (subsequent winner of the G1 Mile) and Secret Weapon (2nd in G1 HK Cup behind Maurice). He's just had the one run this prep, which was a good effort with the big weight, and Moreira chooses him over Pakistan Star. If he is anywhere near 100%, he'll probably be winning this.
I think the value in the race is quite clearly SEASONS BLOOM who has had three starts this prep for two wins, and he was desperately unlucky in his first up run. His last two wins have been dominant, and despite the margin only being half a length last start, the replay will prove just how good a win it was. He was slow away, came from nearly last on the fence, weaved through and picked up the leader under hands and heels only. His rating suggests he is nowhere near the level of Rapper Dragon, but he hasn't been able to gain rating points given the lack of times he's raced and the grade of races he's competed in. This is his hardest test, but without doubt this horse can be very competitive at $11.
EAGLE WAY is the third of John Moore's seven runners, and you might remember him for winning the Group 1 Queensland Derby last prep. He then came out and won on debut in Hong Kong over 1600m, exactly the same as what Wether did on his way to becoming Hong Kong Horse of the Year. Times would suggest Beauty Generation was better over the 1600m but this horse was only first up and can definitely run a race from barrier 6.
WESTERN EXPRESS is John Size's only runner here and Ryan Moore flies in to take the ride with Joao Moreira engaged with Rapper Dragon. This horse was last on the turn before coming widest in the straight and looked like he was going to go straight past Beauty Generation, and his effort to get so close was huge. He might be a touch closer from barrier 7 today, but he does cop a 5.5kg turn around in the weights today which hampers his chances.
And finally, we get to the most hyped horse in recent memory, PAKISTAN STAR. This horse has come in for undeserved criticism after going down at $1.40, $1.50 and $1.60, but he's extremely talented and has won 3 of his 6 races in his first prep of racing for A$550k prizemoney. I don't think he'll be winning this though. Last start he took care of a very weak field as he should have, and I think he'll find it hard to make up the ground needed against this field. He faces some very good, proven horses here and meets them at level weights, so as good as I think he is, I don't think he's a $6 chance.
Beauty Generation on top for me, but no surprises to see Rapper Dragon win. Seasons Bloom the value, while Western Express looks handy enough.
2017 Hong Kong Classic Mile Tips
1st: BEAUTY GENERATION
2nd: RAPPER DRAGON
3rd: SEASONS BLOOM
4th: WESTERN EXPRESS
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
