Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley on Saturday, October 28th.
We have a nine-race card to follow up the Mankato Stakes on Friday night, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the True position for both meetings.
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 6 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Moonee Valley and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have comments and betting tips for every race on Saturday below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Big Duke
Best Value: Race 5 French Emotion
Race 1
Tricky way to start off here with seven debutantes in a 10-horse field. Here’s what I could dig up on the newcomers. BACKFILL and BIONIC both went around in the same Flemington jump out, run in a time of 45.62 for the 800m. Backfill was pushed along throughout and finished 5th of 6. Bionic raced three-wide and was pushed along in the closing stages. He finished right up with the leaders at the end in what I though was a reasonable effort given he was wide. JAWWAAL cost $800k and is superbly bred; he went around in a later jump-out on the same day, settled a clear last but sliced through the field in a matter of strides coming around the turn and won the trial under a hold. Overall time was 45.84. FAROE won an 800m trial at Casterton on soft ground in 47.16. He led and was pushed to stay with his stablemate in the closing stages, but they drew clear of the 3rd horse. FIVE STAR GAL was slow to jump in both her jump-outs and was pushed out to finish 3rd/4th on both occasions. The time for the 800m trial she ran in was 51.53. MISS BLUMENTHAL is incredibly speedy. In her trial in Sydney she jumped straight to the front and stayed there until being overrun by a nice Godolphin filly late. In her Melbourne jump out she flew out of the gates like a greyhound and drew clear by several lengths. She ran her 800m in 47.21. SEABROOK jumped out over 700m in a time of 44.97. Showed good speed, was pushed out late, would have liked to have seen her find a bit more late on. Damien Oliver riding for Mick Price is a good lead given he rode a two-year-old to victory last week for Lindsay Park. GRAND CHALLENGE is another for Lindsay Park. He gets the blinkers on for the first time after failing last weekend. SETSUNA travelled three-wide without cover on speed on debut and fought on bravely before eventually being run down by Satin Slipper. Slight query over the strength of that race but she’ll go forward and be tough to run down. I think JAWWAAL is likely get back in the field and therefore will need luck, and may be looking for more ground, but he moved very nicely in his trial. I think this race will be run quickly with speed from Miss Blumenthal, Setsuna and Seabrook, so it may set it up for something like Jawwaal running on. $4.20 out to $5.50 in early betting is concerning for a Lindsay Park two-year-old, but I think he’ll at least run a place. Miss Blumenthal best of the on-pacers (can lead and win).
TIP: Jawwaal EW
Race 2
Tough race this 955m sprint but I’ll be backing two horses here. The first of those is ROCK ‘N’ GOLD who is flying this prep. Two starts ago he flew home over this track and distance behind Super Too and Madeenaty. Super Too then came out and ran a really good race last weekend. Last start he won the Apache Cat Classic at Cranbourne when held up in the straight before bursting through a gap to win. From barrier 9i they’ll need to go back and we just have to hope you can make ground from that position. Mark Zahra is a great booking in Damian Lane’s absence. $4.80 available. The second horse I’ll be on is SIRBIBLE who is first up here. The horse has never finished outside the top two from five starts when first up (three wins, two seconds). First up last prep it won by 1.75L over this track and distance in BM90 grade. It will jump straight to the lead hopefully, and it could just be too quick. My slight query is that there looks to be a bit of speed in the race with some other horses that like to lead, but if he finds the front early on it could be game over. There’s $7 available for him so we can back both. THELBURG interests me, particularly he booking of Craig Williams for John Sadler. BADAJZ will get the suck run just behind the leaders from barrier 2 but he’ll need a bit of luck and the drop back from 1100m to 955m is a little query.
TIP: Rock ‘N’ Gold / Sirbible EW
Race 3
This race is an absolute nightmare. TREKKING has been really well supported in early betting, backed from $6 into $3.80 favourite. He draws well with Bowman on board and comes out of some strong form races behind the likes of Menari, Merchant Navy and Booker. Comes into this off a 56-day break. At the price I can’t back him, especially with the way Bowman is riding at the moment, but his best would win this. SINGLE BULLET comes down from Sydney and has been unlucky to bump into a serious horse in Viridine in both starts this prep. I think Viridine is a horse that can really be followed and he’s set to run in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes. With that in mind, Single Bullet’s performances have been good and should see him be very competitive here. Can race on speed or off speed so he will settle wherever the tempo allows him to. ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE comes here on the quick back-up after running just fairly at his past two starts. His form from three starts ago behind Royal Symphony would see him go close in this, and the drop back from 1400m to 1200m may bring out the best in him. If the tempo is hot up front, which it looks like it will be, he should be able to settle just behind it and enjoy a sweet run. Very wary of EXPERIMENTATION and EPTIMUM here, while INDIAN THUNDER the blowout. Going to take on DUCIMUS.
TIP: Single Bullet / Éclair Sunshine EW
Race 4
Another tough race but there’s two that interest me. I’ll be taking on the short-priced favourite DEMERARA. No real knock on her; she’s been very solid in winning all three career starts to date and she had to do it tough last start, but at the prices I’ve decided to play elsewhere. I thought her stablemate Jorda clearly worked the better of the two at the Valley the other morning. They worked alongside each other and it was visible that Jorda travelled better on Demerara’s outside. I expected Jorda to bounce back to her best last start but she bumped into a very handy one in Invincible Star. That’s a form line that can be followed and if she gets a quiet ride here behind a hot speed, she might be able to get back to her best. Again, Bowman worries me (until he gets Winx out of the way) but $6 is a fair price. The other I like is SANADAAT. Won brilliantly first up, had excuses second up and just wasn’t good enough last start. Drops back from 1400m to 1200m now and she’s been freshened up for this. Gets the tongue tie on first time, draws barrier 4 and gets Kerrin McEvoy on board so I’m keen to take the $7. LIMESTONE is one I’m wary of – she will strike her best form soon enough, while PURE EMOTION is the blowout.
TIP: Jorda / Sanadaat EW
Race 5
Keen to back one here in what looks a very even field. It’s hard to discount a lot of these runners but I like the price of FRENCH EMOTION here for Waller and Bowman. I’ve had an eye on this horse since she jumped out at Flemington before her first up run, and she cruised throughout that trial which indicated she was in for a good prep. Firs tup she drew wide and was taken a long way back in a strong race and was essentially given another barrier trial. Draws well here in barrier 3, Bowman takes over, has won at the track and has run 2nd over this track and distance, and Waller has said she’s been working with Winx. That tells me the horse is going really well and happy to take the $12 each way here. I think the price about the stablemate INVINCIBELLA is very short. She’s won well in two starts in Sydney this prep but her third up record isn’t as good and she’ll need to improve once again to win this. OREGON’S DAY has the class and ability to win this but she’s had no luck with barriers all prep. She’ll have to go back from barrier 9 and hope she doesn’t get caught wide. By this stage of the day, however, it may suit horses like her swooping from back in the field. CONSOMMATEUR is undefeated second up and LUBITON gets a 3kg weight swing on Invincibella. She will lead and take some catching.
TIP: French Emotion EW (Best Value)
Race 6
The early betting drift concerns me but this race just has BIG DUKE written all over it. He’s finally fit and back to winning form and as he’s shown in the past, once he starts winning he generally keeps winning. He beat most of this field when winning the St Leger in Sydney over 2600m last start, and the only one that gets a small weight swing is WHO SHOT THE BARMAN. Barrier 1 should see him box seat, he’s won at the track before and he looks incredibly hard to beat in this on his way to the Melbourne Cup. AUVRAY ran 2nd to him last start and can do so again. The horse is absolutely flying under Richard Freedman’s care. Expecting another good showing. All the early money has been for LIBRAN so I’m wary of that. He was the only horse to make ground out wide from the back of the field in the St Leger, which was against the pattern of the day, so if he’s close enough in the small field he’ll go close.
TIP: Big Duke (Best Bet)
Race 7
Another very even field. BANISH raced in some strong races earlier this prep behind the likes of Shoals and Leather’n’lace before winning over 1400m at Cranbourne last start. She motored late to just get there on the line and the step up to the mile here looks ideal. She will get a fair way back again from barrier 11 but she should get her chance this late in the day. There’s $6.50 available for her. The other I’m interested in is PAGEANTRY at $8. She’s had no luck her last two starts. Two back she was held up badly in the straight and went to the line barely tested, and last start she was stuck three-wide the trip. She’s had three weeks to get over that and draws much better today in barrier 3 with Mark Zahra aboard. She could bounce back. MINTHA was good two starts back against Houtzen at this track but was only fair in the Thousand Guineas last start. She was stepping up from 1200m to 1600m that day so with the run at the mile under her belt she could improve. I’LL HAVE A BIT gets the run of the race, GLAM GURU brings Adelaide form, and SPEEDWAY drops back from 2000m to 1600m after failing behind Pinot last start. Backing both Banish and Pageantry.
TIP: Banish / Pageantry EW
Race 8
Good race. Interested in backing LUCKY HUSSLER each way at $7. His first two runs this preparation were very ordinary but he showed something last start. He should have finished much closer than he did but he was badly held up in the straight and never got a clear crack at them. Dibayani finished 3rd in that race and came from the same position as Lucky Hussler at the turn. IT’S SOMEWHAT has been set for this race according to James Cummings. He was only fair first up in the Toorak but he was taken back from a wide barrier. Expect a much more positive ride from barrier 1 here and he’s got a good record over this distance. If he’s been targeted at this race all along then we can expect significant improvement and it’d be no surprise if he won. BURNING FRONT will go forward from barrier 9 and will do what he always does. He’s got a great record at this track and an even better record at this distance. He’ll run well. RELIGIFY ran well first up under a big weight when just run down on the line. I don’t think he’ll get the lead today with Jungle Edge in the race and for that reason I’ll take him on. SOUND PROPOSITION has claims.
TIP: Lucky Hussler EW
Race 9
The Cox Plate is an interesting race outside of WINX and there’s plenty of markets to get involved in. First of all, Topbetta are offering $5 for Winx to win for all new customers (max bet $25). There is a link at the bottom of this article you can follow to claim the offer. Pointsbet are offering $2 for Winx to win by more than 2L (max bet $100) and Ladbrokes have a stack of different markets for Cox Plate betting. The first that interests me is the “Without Winx” market where I’ll be backing both GAILO CHOP and FOLKSWOOD. We’re getting upwards of $4.50 for both of those. Gailo Chop will get a soft lead here and the horse is flying. He’s got six wins from nine starts at the distance and he could cling on to 2nd. Folkswood will go forward with him and comes off a strong win in the Cranbourne Cup at his first Australian start. He showed last start that he will be able to handle the pressure when it comes into the race 600m from home. HUMIDOR will go back today and gets the blinkers on for the first time. This will be a sit-sprint kind of race where the pressure goes on suddenly. The race won’t be run hard from the start, so I think that could bring Humidor undone. He has a bad tendency to hang in and around the tight corners of Moonee Valley he could struggle. ROYAL SYMHONY carries 49.5kg and he will also have to go back from his wide barrier. I think he’s definitely looking for the 2000m and probably should have won the Guineas, but I’m always keen to take on three-year-olds in Open company for the first time. I can see him running well, similar to Yankee Rose last year, but I don’t see him running 2nd. HAPPY CLAPPER is a query in a high-pressure 2000m for mine. Happy to spread plenty of money around all of those markets.
TIP: Gailo Chop / Folkswood (Without Winx market)
Race 10
Looks a race in two here between CLIFF’S EDGE and ALOISIA. Cliff’s Edge got things all his own way when winning over 2000m at Caulfield last weekend. He was able to dictate the race at his own leisure and he kicked away to win impressively. He’ll go straight to the front here and Weir is talking very positively about this horse’s condition, so given he will likely have a few lengths on Aloisia coming around the turn, I’m happy to stick with him here. ALOISIA was super impressive winning the Thousand Guineas last start and she once again draws barrier 1 here. She’s on her way to the Oaks in a couple weeks, but she takes on the boys here and may just struggle to make up the ground on Cliff’s Edge. Not underestimating her but at the prices I’d rather be on Cliff’s Edge. VIN DE DANCE is the interesting runner in the race heading towards the Derby. Ran well on Australian debut behind a talented filly and steps up to 2000m for the first time here.
TIP: Cliff’s Edge
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
