Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Blue Sapphire Stakes Day at Caulfield on Wednesday, October 18th.
The feature race of the day is the Group 3 Blue Sapphire Stakes, but we’re also treated to the Group 3 Ladies’ Day Vase and the Listed italktravel Stakes.
The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail in the True position and hot weather predicted. We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Temple of Bel EW
Best Value: Race 4 Bel Burgess
Race 1
UP ‘N’ ROLLING comes up a bit short for mine here and has already been on the drift early in betting. The way he finished off last start when beaten by Alward in Sydney didn’t suggest to me that he was crying out for 2400m. It appeared to me that he’d had enough at the end of a strongly run 2000m so 2400m is some query for mine. Still, Waller wouldn’t bring him down here and wouldn’t race him at the 2400m if he didn’t think he’d handle it, and running 2nd to Alward is actually good form for this. It wasn’t that long ago that Alward bolted in over 2000m at Flemington in similar company. I like the profile of CHEQUERED FLAG here. He ran well last start and I took him on on that occasion because I was concerned about the 47-day break between runs. With that run under the belt he should be fitter for this. Drops in weight, Lane takes over, draws favourably and should get a soft run on pace on a track that could favour frontrunners. Happy with $5.50. SIN TO WIN hasn’t missed the placings this prep and won over 2000m at Mornington last start. His 0.5L defeat to Anaheim last start also looks good. First go at 2400m some query, but drawn to possibly lead and gets K McEvoy booked for the ride who is an exceptional rider of stayers. $7 is a decent price. The blowout is REGAL MONARCH at $21 and I’d strongly recommend throwing him in exotics. He has done nothing in his first two runs back, but he never does. Gets up to 2400m now and has never finished outside the top two from six starts at the distance. Expect sharp improvement. LYCURGUS is fit now and can go well.
TIP: Chequered Flag / Regal Monarch EW
Race 2
Not a race I’m very keen on with the two horses I was going to back now scratched from the race. ANDREA MANTEGNA is going really well this prep. His only real two failures he’s had excuses, sitting three-wide at Flemington four starts ago before striking a heavy track two starts ago. Every other start he’s won or finished 2nd by a nose. Comes out of what could be a good race last start behind Sin To Win, who is a live chance in Race 1. Goes up 3kg in weight from last start but Damian Lane takes over from the apprentice and he’s a legitimate winning chance again. VIOLATE continues to run well but he just doesn’t win. Steps up to 2000m now but he’s only placed once from four starts at the distance. Looks very short as the $4.20 favourite for a horse that has one win from 18 starts. CARRAIG AONAIR finished ahead of Violate last start and only carries 0.5kg more here, yet he’s double the price. Draws wide here but he’ll roll forward to be on pace and that’s a good position to be in, so happy to back him each way at $8. SHERLOCK HOLMES was butchered last Wednesday at Bendigo over 2400m.He got well back, was held up in traffic until the 200m mark and couldn’t quicken under 60.5kg. He did well to get so close. He’s a class runner and should be fit now, and the quick back-up is eye-catching. My big query is the drop back from 2400m to 2000m, though he does get blinkers on first time. Can’t tip him on top but he’s a big watch in the race. Backing Carraig Aonair each way but most wary of Andrea Mantegna.
TIP: Carraig Aonair EW
Race 3
Really nice race for the three-year-olds with plenty of these sure to be targeting good races over the Spring, including the VRC Oaks. VILLERMONT has been smashed in early betting after a dominant 5.25L maiden win last start at Benalla. Prior to that he finished 3rd on debut behind Wassergeist and Weather With You, so he certainly profiles well to win again today. For reference, his win last start over 1606m was nearly a whole second quicker than the race CIRCOMO finished 2nd in on the same day. At the prices I’m more inclined to go with TEMPLE OF BEL who was also a super impressive maiden winner last start. She put in an eye-catching run first up over 1200m before charging home late to win going away over 1400m last start. That gave the indication that she’d only be better stepping up to 1600m. From everything I’ve seen, the stable are very confident she will run a big race here and I’m happy to take the $7/$2.30 about her here, compared to the $2.10 we’re getting for Villermont. The other interesting runner in the race is Murray Baker’s VIN DE DANCE, a New Zealander having its first start in Australia. Whenever Baker brings horses to Australia you have to take notice, and undoubtedly this horse is being set for the Derby. Damian Oliver is a strong booking and he looks set to run a good race. I’d be surprised to see the winner come from outside those three.
TIP: Temple Of Bel EW (Best Bet)
Race 4
Incredibly keen on one here at double figure odds! BEL BURGESS is criminally over the odds at $16./$4.75. He’s finished in the money at 12 of his 16 starts, and four of his five wins came at the back end of last preparation. He finished that prep with a 2nd placing to Burning Front over 1600m at this track. Leading into this preparation he finished 3rd in a trial behind Bassett and Malaguerra, and he just had absolutely no luck first up behind Wall Street Wolf. He was slow away, settled back in the field, carried 61kg and went to the line behind a wall of horses without being asked for an effort. For comparison, the favourite for this race is BRYNEICH who came out of that exact race and had a very similar hard luck story. He comes up $4.40 here and Bel Burgess comes up $16! Bel Burgess drops from 61kg to 58.5kg, draws beautifully in barrier 5 and if he jumps cleanly today he will settle much further forward (could possibly even lead). Has placed twice from three starts second up and has two wins and a placing from three starts at the distance. Very keen and think he’s an enormous price. STEEL FROST won well last start to make it three wins from as many starts this prep. No knock on him, he should go well again. WALL STREET WOLF is flying but he got everything go his way last start and had a clear run down the outside while a few others were held up in behind traffic. Can oppose today, and happy to oppose BRYNEICH purely based on his very short price. James Cummings’ horses aren’t exactly lighting Melboune on fire. JALAN JALAN has been luckless in two runs this prep and looks over the odds, while DUSTY JACK is a horse I really like and will find this much easier than last start. Drops in grade (that race produced subsequent Group 1 performers), draws barrier 1 as opposed to 16 last start and distance suits.
TIP: Bel Burgess EW (Best Value) / Dusty Jack EW
Race 5
This race is a beauty. I’ve been waiting until PROMPT RESPONSE was third up before jumping on her and this is the race. First up she was huge behind Savanna Amour, and last start she had no luck after knuckling at the start an being held up the entire straight. She always needs those first two runs before starting to peak third up. She’s never missed the top two when third up, hence the reason I was waiting to jump on. I have to admit, I didn’t expect it to come over 1600m (a distance she’s never competed at) but Waterhouse/Bott have their metro runners flying in Melbourne and the booking of Damien Oliver suggests she’s ready to win now. From barrier 5 I’d expect her to settle right behind the pacemakers HELL OR HIGHWATER and LOVANI. Hell Or Highwater is undefeated at the track and distance and is flying of late. She’ll go straight to the lead and be tough to run down, especially if the track is favouring frontrunners, but she faces a very good field here and looks slightly under the odds for mine. Lovani is ready to win again now she steps up to 1600m. Her run over the unsuitable 1400m last start was huge and she looks set to go very close. FLYING JESS is another that’s flying. She came from last to go down by a nose to Savanna Amour first up, then was held up badly second up, but bounced back when flashing home for 2nd ahead of Hell Or Highwater last start. Needs a lot of luck with her racing style, which may explain her poor record at the track, but if she gets luck here she’ll flash late. TAHANEE is ready third up with Williams taking over. Draws well and has trialled well since last start. STORMSABREWING had no luck first up and can measure up here. Terrific race with six or seven legitimate winning chances.
TIP: Prompt Response
Race 6
Speaking of terrific races, this is a cracker. I’m keen on two here but there’s no shortage of winning chances. CROWN WITNESS is undefeated in three starts and she returns here from a short break. She’s trialled very nicely leading into this, and notably, she beat Catchy the last time we saw her. Catchy then came out and beat JUKEBOX so we can tie that form in. Crown Witness draws barrier 1 so she may end up leading. My slight queries with her are 1200m for the first time, especially first up from a break, and the amount of speed that could be on here. Regardless, I’m backing her. I DID IT AGAIN is a horse I’ve had a big opinion of since his debut and was one of my horses to follow from the podcast in recent weeks. He should be undefeated. He beat Bandipur on debut and then had the tables turned on him after being caught four-wide on speed the entire trip first up, with Nikita Beriman then dropping her whip in the straight. To get so close clearly indicates he’s got huge talent, and I won’t be letting him go around without backing him. Terrific price at $6.50 and I suspect we will get even better come race time. JUKEBOX is undefeated at the track and he’s proven over the 1200m here. He trialled well leading into this too, actually running a better time on the day than Crown Witness. The big negative for him is the barrier. I can see it being a real possibility that Craig Williams gets caught three-wide on the speed here, because there’s plenty of speed underneath him. SUMMER PASSAGE is the only Group 1 winner in the field and drops back from 1400m to 1200m here. Bowman takes the ride and third up he should go well. FORMALITY won two races in Sydney before weakening badly to finish a long way back in the Golden Rose. She’s been freshened up and drops back to 1200m here. From the good draw she will put herself right on the pace. My query is whether that hard run in the Golden Rose has taken a bit out of her. MURAAQUEB and LONE EAGLE will likely both find themselves back in the field. They will need a good tempo, but it looks like that’s what they’ll get. Backing Crown Witness and I Did It Again.
TIP: Crown Witness / I Did It Again EW
Race 7
Happy to take on KEEN ARRAY here who was gifted a slow lead last start in the straight race at Flemington and fought off the rest of the field. He goes up 3.5kg here to carry 60kg and despite his great record at the track and distance he’d have to improve to win this. I’m keen to be with MALIBU STYLE each way here at $7. He was beaten a nose by Keen Array last start and meets him 3.5kg better off at the weights today. Neville Parnham was very bullish this week, saying the horse was flying and he expects him to be very competitive here. Just need a good ride from S Parnham from barrier 7. CALANDA is a horse that takes my eye for Hugh Bowman and Team Snowden. As I always say, whenever they bring a horse to Melbourne you have to take notice, and he’s got a great first up record. He’s set to have two runs in Melbourne before heading to Perth for the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes, so you’d expect him to go close here. RICH CHARM ran well first up and is undefeated at the track and distance. His second up record is slightly flat so perhaps wait until next start to back him? Happy to be on both Calanda ($5) and Malibu Style ($7) here.
TIP: Calanda / Malibu Style EW
Race 8
Keen on two to close out the day and both are at good odds. The first is TIAMO GRACE who is another horse I’ve been keen to follow since she was butchered last start over this track and distance. I genuinely think she should have gone very close that day when we were on her at $21, but she was chopped in half in the straight and never got a fair crack at them. The form out of the race is good with Hell Or Highwater since running well in Group 2 company, and Amelie’s Star bolting in at her next start. Damian Lane jumps back on her and despite the wide draw I have to back her again here at $6.50. GRAND DREAMER only got going very late first up but he never does anything first up. Second up he improves significantly, with four top two finishes from five starts. Last prep he ran 5th first up and then went to Sydney and won by 3L. Granted it was on a wet track, but we should see good improvement out of him today and worth having something on at $15. ANAHEIM drops back to 1800m, the distance he won well at two starts ago. Hugh Bowman takes over today so no surprise to see him bounce back. SILVERA was a good winner at Flemington last start and from barrier 1 he is sure to be competitive once again. ODEON the other to consider.
TIP: Tiamo Grace / Grand Dreamer EW
_ _ _
The team at TopBetta have announced of their brand new GOAT Tote product, offering punters guaranteed better odds than provided on the regular totes. Don't be satisfied with poor odds! Check out the GOAT Tote which will give you the biggest bang for your buck when punting on the races this weekend!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
