We are now less than one week away from what will arguably the most covered, most watched and most criticised U.S Presidential Election ever. While the election betting markets have been fairly predictable over the last month, it hasn’t stopped Australian punters from betting on the race. Online bookmaker Sportsbet claim they have now taken over $4 million in bets on the election.
“The US election is the new race that stops the nation judging from the betting that’s coming in, it’s been massively popular with punters’’ said sportsbet.com.au’s Will Byrne.
Things are really starting to heat up days out from the election. With some surprise leaks being uncovered within the last few days on both sides, as well as the re-opening of Hillary Clinton’s FBI case, the market gap has closed to a quantity we haven’t seen since the Billy Bush debacle.
Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party candidate, came into as short as $1.18 to be the next President, shortly after audio tapes leaked of her opponent making lewd remarks about his treatment of women. However, over the past week, we have seen Clinton climb back up to as much as $1.40 with Sportsbet, due to the recent reopening of a long standing FBI case, regarding her use of a personal email account while serving as the US Secretary of State, rather than official State Department emails. It is alleged Clinton sent classified emails from the personal account, and then deleted them once an official investigation on the matter had begun.
This controversy caused Trump to dub Clinton, ‘Crooked Hillary’, a nickname that has stuck with him and the Republican Party throughout the campaign. Trump however, has not been without his fair share of scandal. As well as the leaking of the audiotape, Trump has a knack of being underprepared when speaking in public, and often alienates demographics that are crucial to winning a U.S Presidential Election with stupid, unfiltered remarks. Trump will have to rely heavily on the white male vote if he is to have any chance of winning the presidency.
TIP: Hillary Clinton to be the 45th President of the United States – $1.40 at Sportsbet
How it all works
The U.S Election system is a little tricky to understand, and to explain, but here goes.
Each of the 50 U.S states, as well as the District of Columbia, are awarded a certain amount of Electoral College votes. Each state receives a specified number of Electoral College votes, which is determined by matching it to the number of Congressional Representatives that state is afforded. A general rule is that the more populous states have more electoral votes.
Most of the larger states, that have more votes allocated to them, tend to vote predictably every election, ie. California and Texas, the two largest states generally vote Democrat and Republican respectively, this usually allows us to get a good gauge on how things are shaping up, and is typically the reason why the polls are fairly accurate.
However, some of the other larger states are more unpredictable in the way they vote every election. These are what we call the swing states, and if you’re not willing to lay down a hefty sum to win a marginal amount on Clinton, there could be some value in determining which way these states will vote.
Florida
The Sunshine State proves every election that it very well can be where the Presidency is won or lost. Due to it’s massive population, it has by far the most electoral votes out of any swing state. While betting markets hover around even money in this state, the polls are favouring marginally towards the Democrats, due to Florida and in particular it’s most populated city, Miami, having such a large Latino population.
An influx of Puerto Rican citizens, as well as the ever growing baby boomer demographic that seek retirement in Florida due to it’s warmer weather, could very well be the popular vote Clinton needs to win Florida.
TIP: Democrats to win Florida - $1.87 at Sportsbet
Ohio
Ohio is often the barometer for a U.S Election. The state generally votes for the eventual winner, so in the past it was safe to say that if you won Ohio, you won the election. However, Ohio’s migration rate is at an all time low, people aren’t choosing to move there, which means that the citizens of Ohio are getting older, and, to Trump’s pleasure, whiter.
Ohio is seen as an industrial state, with a large percentage of their population being blue collar workers, which traditionally, favour Republicans. The Obama administration however, was able to win Ohio twice due to the relentless campaigning there to appeal to the minorities and college educated workers. If Hillary is to repeat, she will need to do the same.
TIP: Republicans to win Ohio - $1.45 at Sportsbet
North Carolina
This Southern state has traditionally been Republican through and through, of the last nine elections, President Obama was the only Democrat to win in North Carolina. Clinton, however, has dedicated a massive percentage of her time and resources to securing this crucial swing state.
While campaigning there, she brought out the big guns in Barack and Michelle Obama to speak publicly to garner the previous Left support. She also invested heavily in the ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement after an incident that involved a policeman fatally shooting an unarmed black man in Charlotte sparked nationwide debate on race. All of this could garner the support Clinton needs from the minority vote in North Carolina.
TIP: Democrats to win North Carolina - $1.87 at Sportsbet
In the end, regardless of which way all these states go, Wednesday will be one of the most entertaining days of television in recent memory. Even if you haven’t backed anyone, fill your cupboard with snacks, and settle in for a long day.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
