Treasury Casino & Hotel Queensland Oaks 2400m - Group 1
The penultimate week of the Brisbane Winter Carnival is headlined by the 2400m Queensland Oaks for the three-year-old fillies, and also sees racing finally return to Eagle Farm after track renovations.
Traditionally this has been one of the weaker Group 1's in Australia and the form doesn't tend to hold up over time, however last year's winner defied that trend by becoming the best horse in the world!
The Roses has generally been the most successful lead up race for the Oaks, though only two winners of The Roses have gone on to win the Oaks too.
The Eagle Farm track is currently rated a Soft 5 but there is a minimum of 35mm of rain predicted in Brisbane on Saturday so I would think we would be racing on a Heavy track.
Let's go through the runners:
AMBIENCE: Started close enough to favourite in The Roses but finished well back in the field, beaten 6 lengths. Prior to that she finished 2nd behind Sofia Rosa in the Australian Oaks so if she were to reproduce that form she would rate highly here.Should appreciate the rain.
CHABAUD: Winner of the SA Fillies Classic over 2500m at Group 3 level last start so we know she will run the trip. She has run well before on wet tracks so that shouldn't be a problem. Will appreciate the big Eagle Farm track and should go well.
KEBEDE: Long priced winner of The Roses last start but she's been hugely consistent all campaign. The step up from 2000m to 2400m is a slight query but you wouldn't discount her the way she's going.
IMPOSING LASS: Ran a big race in The Roses to finish 3rd after having to work in the first half of the race from the wide barrier. Stable is in red hot form. Has won before on Soft ground so with a better draw today she gets every chance to atone for last start.
BELUGA BLUE: Racing reasonably well without really going close to winning. Has a bit to do to turn the tables on Chabaud but draws well and gets the blinkers back on. Not for me.
SEBRING SALLY: Ran a blinder at 100/1 in The Roses to finish 2nd. From barrier 19 she will once again have to go back and either make a mid-race move or try to have the last crack at them. Has a win and a place from two starts on Heavy ground so she should appreciate the rain. Not hopeless.
SELF ESTEEM: Has a great run throughout in The Roses and just battled on to finish 4th. Has previously run well on rain affected track and will get a good run from the good gate once again here. Rough chance.
ALASKAN ROSE: Ran very well three starts ago in the Adrian Knox before an inconclusive performance in the Australian Oaks . She ran on okay in The Roses and the big Eagle Farm track will suit her, as will a drop of rain. Not the worst hope.
QUEEN OF WANDS: Comfortably beaten in her last two starts and she hasn't won beyond 1400m so the 2400m is sure to test her out.
DAWNIE PERFECT: Has taken her time to come good this prep but her run in The Roses last start was quite good. The 2400m will suit her and the spacious Eagle Farm track will give her a chance to wind up from the back. The barrier will make it tough but she can win.
ASHLEE MARIE: Running consistently well lately which included a good runner up finish in the SA Fillies Classic at Group 3 level last start. It was a huge effort to fight on after having to work hard early. Gauci on, barrier 1, she should go straight to the lead and give a good sight.
FALKENBERG: Good effort in The Roses last start where she ran on well from well back in the field. Gets a good draw here and if she can jump cleanly she will get a great run. Not sure about her being favourite, especially with a query over the wet track.
TAP THIS: Unlucky two starts back and then sent to the Gold Coast where she fell in as odds on favourite. That was a much weaker race than this so not sure that was good enough to be a genuine winning chance here.
TAVI BAY: Racing consistently this prep and has shot through the grades with each step up in trip. relished the step up to 2000m last start when storming home at Flemington to win on the line. That suggests 2400m will be suitable and the big Eagle Farm track will help. Only concern is her only failure came on a Heavy track.
ROMANTIC MAID: Interesting Kiwi filly from a top stable that has prepared for this with a solid win over 2000m in Sydney last start. Rises in grade here but the trainer wouldn't bring her here if she was hopeless and the distance should suit. Watch.
DULVERTON: Simply don't think she is going well enough in the lead up to this. Her performances haven't been terrible but I would have liked to have seen more.
ZASORCERESS: Was racing in Group 3 company before being sent to the Gold Coast for an easy kill in a maiden. She won it easily and goes straight back into Group 1 company here. She could go well but not a winning chance for mine.
MOUNT OMEI: Racing consistently this prep but in much easier races in this. Her two wins have been in a maiden at Ballarat and a Class 1 at Kembla. Jumps straight into Group 1 company and despite being trained by Chris Waller she might not measure up here.
Summary
Absolute dart board job here and the market reflects that with $6.50 the field. Backing a few here, namely Imposing Lass, Tavi Bay and Ashlee Marie, with Dawnie Perfect, Ambience, Kebede, Chabaud and Romantic Maid all winning chances. Think Falbenberg is a bit short.
1st IMPOSING LASS
2nd TAVI BAY
3rd ASHLEE MARIE
4th CHABAUD
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
