The 2016 Pakenham Cup meeting gets its first chance as a standalone Saturday metropolitan meeting and we've got 9 races to assess.
The track is a Good 4 with the rail in the true position, but we did see at the last Pakenham meeting that the outside rail was where most horses ended up so it's tough to know what to expect.
We've got betting tips for all 9 races along with a full preview of the Cup!
2016 Pakenham Cup Racing Preview & Betting Tips
Race 1 - O’Connor 3YO BM70 Handicap 1000m
Can't go past the very talented WISE HERO here who we have backed at both starts without being let down at all. He won by 4 lengths on debut before backing it up with a 2L win barely touched at Moonee Valley last start. Only has to carry 58kg after the claim and he'll be too good. LIBERTY SONG looks the logical danger; he won first up before running well in two strong form races at his last two, both won by the talented Speedeor.
Tip: Wise Hero
Race 2 - Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap 1200m
No reason to jump off GALLANT HARMONY here. He ran well first up in a decent race before pulling up with a problem two starts ago. He bounced back last start with the aid of a leader biased track at Ballarat but he draws barrier 1 here and gets in with 52kg after the claim. SMART DART finished 4th behind Gallant Harmony last start but I'm not convinced he can turn the tables.
Tip: Gallant Harmony
Race 3 - Viatek BM78 Handicap 1000m
A number of chances here. I thought BIG REEL's win at Moonee Valley over 955m last start was quite impressive. He stays at 57kg after the claim and should get a good run from barrier 6. The other one I like is A PRIVATE PARTY who drops 9kg in weight from last start where he carried 64kg at Sandown in lower grade. His run first up behind Miss Vista at Moonee Valley was very good under the big weight, so he can feature here at $14. Keep TANGO ROCK very safe at his first start since being gelded, and ROYAL SPINNER also has claims.
Tip: Big Reel / A Private Party EW
Race 4 - Momentum Gaming F&M BM78 Handicap 1400m
Happy to stick with CHEEKY BABE for Weir here but I do think there's any number of horses that could win this so I'll be staying out. This horse hasn't finished outside the top two this prep and will get every possible chance from barrier 4 with just 55kg on her back. MOSSBEAT looks over the odds at $19 dropping back in company but will need a good ride from the wide barrier. She won in this grade two starts ago before being well beaten in Group 3 company last start.
Tip: Cheeky Babe / Mossbeat EW
Race 5 - Wise Choice Catering 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m
SNITZON looks a progressive type and his win first up at Cranbourne was quite good, coming from back in the field to hit the line strongly over 1300m. Craig Williams jumps on here and he draws barrier 4 so should get a great trip. The step up in distance will be beneficial and he looks the horse in the race with the most upside so I'm happy to get on at $8. FUSE and BALLET MASTER could be the dangers.
Tip: Snitzon EW (best bet)
Race 6 - Schweppes David Bourke Memorial Handicap 1600m
I think MIHANY can bounce back here. He should be able to lead and set a steady tempo and with 55.5kg on his back he should get every chance to hold them off. The tempo was simply too fast for the leaders in the Kilmore Cup last start so the more moderate tempo here should suit him. KENJORWOOD comes into this ready to peak 3rd run back from a spell. he's finished in the top two at 5 of his 6 starts when 3rd up. There's a huge watch on the two imports here. SARRASIN makes his Australian debut for the Freedman stable and has been well-backed early, but I fear 1600m might be a touch sharp for him. GOLDSTREAM has his first start for Darren Weir after failing in three Australian starts so far, but we know what Weir's record is with horses having their first start for his stable so it will be interesting to see how he performs.
Tip: Mihany
Race 7 - Superior Food Services Pakenham Cup 2500m
The Pakenham Cup looks at the mercy of the enigma that is PILOTE D'ESSAI, in my opinion. The extra distance doesn't look a problem after his surprising win in the Ballarat Cup over 2200m, and the only slight query will be the 4kg rise in the weight. From barrier 3 he will go straight to the front and be hard to run down. The biggest danger could be SWACADELIC who has form behind Kinema and Qewy who are some pretty handy horses! He drops back from the 3200m to the 2500m but he's won twice at this distance in the past. He will need a good ride from Williams but if he reproduces his last two starts he will be thereabouts. LITTLE WHITE CLOUD ran an admirable race after being wide throughout at the Valley last weekend. 3rd up from a 1225 day spell should see him getting close to peak fitness and he was running in European Group 1's over this distance before coming to Australia. I think the big improver in the race could be DESERT JEUNEY who is aided by the good draw here. He steps up to this distance for the first time, but if you go off his run behind Fabrizio three starts back he would be a big player here. At 20/1 he is the best value.
Tip: Pilote D'essai / Desert Jeuney EW
Race 8 - Racing.com VOBIS Gold Bullion 1400m
The compressed weights give all the horses their chance here with only a 3kg spread from top weight to bottom. I think LUCKY LIBERTY will get his chance to break through again here with a cozy run from the inside barrier. If the inside part of the track is playing fair then he could be the one they have to beat. If the inside is off I think it plays into the hands of HARD CALL at a bit of value. This horse flew home first up at Moonee Valley last week in a decent race. He'll go back again from the barrier but has the ability to run over the top of them. SEPTAMORE has never missed a place at this distance and was only beaten by a smart type last start so if you're after one at each-way odds that will give a big sight it could be this one for Darren Weir at $7.
Tip: Lucky Liberty
Race 9 - Stabil-Lime Group BM78 Handicap 2000m
Darren Weir holds a strong hand here. PALMERA LAD absolutely bolted in at this track and distance last start with 59kg on his back, winning by 4.75L. King Of England hasn't exactly franked the form but there's no reason he can't go on with it here with 55.5kg after the claim. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN is Weir's other top hope. The French import has his third run in Australia here after charging home over 1800m at Sale last start. Williams takes the ride, he draws barrier 4 and his only win came over this distance so he looks well placed. GET THE PICTURE is the other to consider off a huge win at Moonee Valley last start.
Tip: Palmera Lad
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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