James Boag's Premium Doomben 10,000 1350m - Group 1
The third Group 1 of the Brisbane Winter Carnival is the Doomben 10,000 which sees a field of nine lining up for the $750,000 prize.
The track is currently a Good 4 but there is a sprinkle of rain predicted throughout the day on Friday, however I doubt it will be enough to cause a downgrade of the track, and with a sunny 24 degrees predicted for Saturday the track should be in good order.
11 of the last 19 winners of this race have come out of the BTC Cup - that includes Dothraki, Charlie Boy, Two Blue, Fell Swoop and Delectation from this field - and 5 of the past 8 runnings of this race have gone to the favourite.
Let's go through the nine runners:
DELECTATION: While on paper it says he finished 8th in the BTC Cup, his run was huge. He was only beaten 2.4L but he was held up badly the last 50m and should have finished much closer. That run certainly backed up his two good trials and suggests he may be back to his best. Barrier 2 means he will have to get plenty of luck from back in the field but he's very capable of winning this.
FELL SWOOP: Had no luck last start in the BTC Cup where he was caught wide the entire trip. That certainly won't be the case here from barrier 1 and the booking of Zac Purton is a major plus. Steps to this distance for the first time but if you ignore his last run he rates very highly from the good barrier.
DOTHRAKI: The money came for him in the BTC Cup and he certainly ran accordingly. Probably should have won given the run he had but Malaguerra worried him out of it. He went into that race first up off a 42 day break and his 2nd up record suggests he could improve again here. Watch the market because Snowden money is good money.
HOOKED: Probably the forgotten horse in the field having been off the track for a decent amount of time. He was very poor at the end of last campaign but he's had 7 months off and he's had three good trials leading into this. On his best form he would definitely be competitive here but first up over 1350m after 7 months off would be some training effort.
CHARLIE BOY: Well beaten in the BTC Cup last start after settling well back in the field. Obviously will be much closer today given the small field. His two previous runs this prep were good but you'd be brave to back him here on the back of last start. Needs to improve.
MUSIC MAGNATE: This horse is flying. Great win first up and another good run last start when beaten by a good one in Clearly Innocent. Never finished outside the top two at this distance and is undefeated third up from a break. Will be up on the speed which is a good thing at Doomben. WFA Group 1 is obviously the toughest race he has contested in his career but he can give a good sight.
AZKADELLIA: Racing in career best form which culminated in a Group 1 win in the Queen of the Turf at Randwick last start. Prior to that she finished 3rd to Winx in the Doncaster so her form is clearly very strong. She's had a little freshen up and a trial leading into this, which was quite impressive. From the widest barrier she will settle back in the field which is the only slight concern but she is good enough to win regardless. Hard to beat.
TWO BLUE: Gave a good sight in the BTC Cup as expected from an on pace position. She'll be doing the same here; we can expect her to cross from her wide barrier and take up the running, or if Music Magnate chooses to lead then she will settle outside of him. The 1350m might test a little but she did run 2nd to Peeping over 1400m last prep. Will give a good sight but not quite good enough to win.
SCARLET BILLOWS: Was never a chance after the fall of Miss Promiscuity last start, which hampered her around the 700m mark, so put a line through that run and judge off previous form. I don't think she's quite good enough to beat the best horses in this race but you can't rule out a Darren Weir runner at the moment.
Summary
Good race and while Azkadellia looks incredibly hard to beat, the $2.80 about her is about as short as I'd want her price to go. She'll be getting a long way back from the outside barrier on a track that is hard to make ground, but her form is certainly the strongest for this race.
Delectation looks to be coming back to his best and his run in the BTC Cup was eye-catching. He will need luck from barrier 2 as he will also get a long way back, but if the breaks go his way he is certainly a good chance of winning.
Fell Swoop will enjoy a much more economical run from barrier 1. Purton on for Ford is a huge plus and he rates well, Dothraki's run in the BTC Cup brings him right into this. Music Magnate can give a good sight, while Scarlet Billows can't be disregarded.
1st DELECTATION
2nd AZKADELLIA
3rd FELL SWOOP
4th DOTHRAKI
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