It's finally time for the showdown that's been on the lips of the nation for the past few weeks, prompting some to call it the "Race of the Century". The WS Cox Plate is upon us and the battle between Winx and Hartnell is set to be one that could make for one of the greatest Cox Plate's ever.
Moonee Valley hosts a huge 10 race card which aside from the Cox Plate also contains four Group 2's, two Group 3's and two Listed races.
The track is currently a Good 3 but with the rain predicted I would expect us to be racing on a Soft track come Saturday.
We've got betting tips for all 10 races as well as a full preview of the Cox Plate!
2016 Cox Plate Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - LUIZA
This filly trialled very well before her debut and then backed it up with a good win in Sydney over a horse that has a fair spruik on him. I think she's got a stack of ability and as we've seen over the carnival, the Sydney form has been stronger than the Melbourne form. Barrier 11 is the issue, but she should roll forward and sit outside the leader. Bowman booked to ride, blinkers on first time, looks a good winning chance but there are a number of un-raced horses so bet carefully. Early money has been for Azazel.
Race 2 - FELINES
Very open race and tough to separate a few of these but Felines has impressed me in her last two starts in Sydney, the latest of which was a Group 3 win over 1000m on a wet track. Lumps 60kg here but she ran strongly with 60kg two starts back and from barrier 1 she should settle in the box seat and do little work. Bowman booked and handles a wet track. The only concern is if they are avoiding the inside of the wet track.
Race 3 - BRULEE
This filly only won a Class 3 at Goulburn first up before coming to Melbourne where she finished 10th of 13 in a Group 3 at Caulfield last start. That run was a complete forgive run - she blew the start and settled last before being held up for the last 150m when she was building momentum. She looks to have a bit of ability and the blinkers go on first time here. Well drawn in 8, if she gets the right breaks she will be charging home.
Race 4 - KEN'S DREAM
Competitive little race. Ken's Dream was flying leading into the Blue Sapphire last start. He did well to finish the race off so well after copping a big bump from Damien Oliver on Flying Artie, which caused him to lose balance and race wide. His two runs here have been very good; hopefully from barrier 10 they won't make him cover as much ground as he did two starts ago. The value in the race is Palladian, who won a maiden at Warwick Farm last start and looks to be improving each race.
Race 5 - LADY LE FAY
Looks one of the best bets of the day after two very good runs to start this prep in Group 3 company in Sydney. Very good record over this distance and at her third run back she is more than ready to win. Barrier 2 may mean she needs a bit of luck but Bowman on board and she looks very hard to beat based on her recent form.
Race 6 - LA LUNA ROSSA E/W
Forget last start in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas where she had to do a stack of work. Much better draw today in barrier 4 so should get a great run in midfield. Blinkers come off and importantly she's performed well on wet tracks before. Looks a bit of value at $9. Exocet is another at value ($12) if you forgive her last start, where she pulled up with mucus. She was favourite for a Group 2 race and her previous form would see her right in this.
Race 7 - THE UNITED STATES
If he is 100% fit he just wins this in my opinion. The worry is that he's had a few setbacks since his last run and has been off the track for 7 weeks, and 1600m is probably a touch short of his best. There are a few which could win this if The United States is vulnerable, but if he turns up he can win. Stable is flying.
Race 8 - GALLANTE
This looks a two horse race between Gallante and Second Wave, in my opinion. Gallante won the Sydney Cup in the autumn and resumed with an enormous run in the Naturalism, finishing runner up to Jameka, who has obviously since bolted in to win the Caulfield Cup. That form looks tremendous for this race, and the step up to 2500m is ideal, as is the soft track predicted. Second Wave has his first Australian start for Godolphin, and their other three runners so far have finished 2nd, 1st and 3rd, so I expect this horse to really show up here. He's finished in the top 2 at all four of his first up runs, and tackles 2500m for the first time in his career. Excited to see what he can do and I think the race will be won by one of these two.
Race 9 - William Hill Cox Plate 2040m - Group 1
What a cracker of a race we have here. While all the attention is on Winx vs Hartnell, many have overlooked the presence of French Group 1 winner Vadamos in the field, as well as the 3YO filly Yankee Rose, who is set to carry just 47.5kg. Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Lucia Valentina has gone basically unnoticed here, Hauraki was a last start Group 1 winner and Black Heart Bart has never finished outside the top 2 in his 7 Group 1 starts for Darren Weir.
All my marbles are in the basket of WINX here, and it appears that's the case for plenty of others with her being backed into $1.85 in the last 24 hours or so. Her work during the week was absolutely sizzling and I've hardly seen Chris Waller this confident in her before. While it was only over 1400m, let's not forget she beat Hartnell by 3.5L first up, and the barrier draw really means this race is at her mercy. Everything is in her favour here - just hoping the track is no worse than Soft.
HARTNELL deserves to be considered a very realistic chance of defeating the mare after winning his past three starts by a combined 17 lengths. At his last start he made Jameka look second rate and she then came out to win the Caulfield Cup easily, so the strength of the form is obviously nothing to be taken lightly. The barrier draw for Hartnell is interesting, as I think it could force them to go forward. I think McDonald wants to be in front of Winx in the run, and I think she'll box seat so he could sit outside the leader. Big chance but I also have a slight query over how suited he is to Moonee Valley and I think Winx has his measure.
As aforementioned, French Group 1 winner VADAMOS is not to be taken lightly here. He has failed twice over 2000m before but he finished last and second last on those occasions so there may have been issues. His only other run at 2000m was a victory so he does handle the distance. Two starts ago he ran 2nd to Ribchester who has since come out and run 2nd to Minding who is one of the best fillies in Europe. I think they will look to lead from barrier 2, but they will be hoping the track doesn't get too wet as his best form is definitely on Good tracks.
The only 3YO in the field is the filly YANKEE ROSE, who carries a minimum of 9.5kg less than the rest of the field! I had huge doubts over how well she was going at the start of the prep but she appears to be flying now and the way she attacked the line last start was very encouraging. From barrier 1 I would be looking to lead because she can't sprint with the others, but they are going to take a sit and get some cover. Depending on where she ends up, that means she will need a bit of luck at crucial stages. I don't think she can match it with Winx and co. but with nearly 10kg less she is capable of springing a surprise.
Another forgotten horse of the field is LUCIA VALENTINA, who absolutely bolted in to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the autumn. The wetter the track, the better for her, and she looks set to peak for this at her third run back from a spell. She's won 3 of her 5 starts when third up and she steps up to her pet distance of 2000m for the first time this prep. She'll go back from barrier 9 and look to run over the top of them, but not sure how well the Valley will suit her either. Definitely one to include if the rain does come.
BLACK HEART BART and HAURAKI are the only other two really worth mentioning. Incredibly, Bart has had 7 starts at Group 1 level for Darren Weir and has never finished worse than 2nd in any of them! I don't think 2000m is his distance and as was proved last start, he has a bit to make up on Winx but he will give his all and rates as a place chance. Hauraki is coming off a win in the Group 1 Metropolitan in Sydney, and while the form out of that isn't very strong, he seems to be going better than ever.
Sticking with the superstar mare here.
1st WINX
2nd HARTNELL
3rd LUCIA VALENTINA
4th VADAMOS
Race 10 - SO SI BON
Really hard for me to separate So Si Bon and Prized Icon but I've gone with So Si Bon who is going to relish getting out to 2000m for the first time. His run in the Guineas was huge where he got stopped dead in the straight before charging home the last 100m. Finally draws a good barrier again so can settle handy to the speed and hopefully avoid any traffic issues. Prized Icon finished 3rd behind Yankee Rose last start and looks a terrific chance of winning this.
Best Bet: Race 5 LADY LE FAY
Looks very well placed today after two very good runs in Sydney, the latest of which was in a strong race. Well weighted in this field and will appreciate the wet track. Barrier 2, Bowman on board, hard to beat.
Best Value: Race 6 LA LUNA ROSSA
Forgive run last start in the Guineas after doing plenty of work. Go back to two starts ago where she charged home and from barrier 4 she maps to get a lovely run in midfield today. Has performed well on wet tracks before and looks a good bet at $9.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
